The plan is to post a new poll about every week or so, and hopefully they are interesting enough to warrant discussion in addition to the time it takes to vote. Any discussion of the first poll regarding how many games Yao Ming would play on the season will undoubtedly center on the timing, as he missed two games with a knee injury immediately after I posted it. I would never wish an injury on anyone – all I know is that the law of averages (as in, he’s averaged 53 games played over the past three seasons) suggests that this is a good time to shop him, given his early-season success. I was also trying to get a gauge on what the consensus in terms of his avoiding injury this season. ’70-79′ got out to a nice lead, but ’60-69′ (my choice) caught up after he went inactive. While his missing more and/or a substantial number of games isn’t an absolute certainty, you would only be doing yourself a favor by at least testing the market – that is, once he gets a few more games into an active streak.
This week’s question deals with what has turned out to be a very impressive rookie crop, whether we’re talking fantasy or real-life. Compare the current totals in certain per-game benchmarks to recent seasons:
13+ points: current (5), 07-08 (1), 06-07 (1), 05-06 (2)
double digit scoring: current (10), 07-08 (6), 06-07 (5), 05-06 (5)
1+ three-point made: current (6), 07-08 (2), 06-07 (6), 05-06 (7)
5+ rebounds: current (6), 07-08 (5), 06-07 (4), 05-06 (4)
4+ assists: current (4), 07-08 (2), 06-07 (1), 05-06 (5)
1+ steals: current (6), 07-08 (5), 06-07 (6), 05-06 (4)
1+ blocks: current (5), 07-08 (4), 06-07 (3), 05-06 (0)
Those numbers mean that there have been plenty of impactful rookies in fantasy, and eight rookies currently appear in the top 125 in Yahoo!’s “Season (total)” rank: Brook Lopez (44), O.J. Mayo (52), Eric Gordon (71), Mario Chalmers (78), Rudy Fernandez (83), Derrick Rose (92), Marc Gasol (111), and Russell Westbrook (121).
Another seven are in the top 200: Jason Thompson (159), Marreese Speights (162), D.J. Augustin (164), Kevin Love (168), Greg Oden (182), Michael Beasley (186), and Darrell Arthur (196).
So who did you vote for in the poll? I chose Lopez because I think he’ll stay close his recent per-game averages (14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks over the past month) and his percentages (.489 FG%, .822 FT% on the season) give him the edge. Rose has been very good in some areas (16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 3.5 boards) and not so great in others (0.3 threes, 0.8 steals), so you have to knock him down a peg in roto. Mayo’s shooting percentage has come come back down to earth (.385 FG% over the past month, .440 on the season) and is now dealing with a regime change, so his second half could be full of ups and downs. Gordon has been very good, but he’ll be deferring to Baron Davis on the occasions that he plays. And it looks like the Thunder were on to something when they drafted Westbrook, but how much more can he improve in year one?
some non-fantasy links : sortable rookie stats, CBS Sports rankings, NBA.com rankings, and ESPN rankings
I almost picked Lopez, but went with Mayo. I’m hoping he will pull my Grizzlies out of this slump, but I doubt it. They are horrible.
On another note, what do you think about the Kirilenko situation? Should I drop him? I’m in 1st in my standard yahoo h2h league, a lock for the playoffs and a top 3 finish, so I’ve been judging my add/drops on who will be most effective near the end of the year. The only FAs out there that I would consider are Varejao and Blake, and secondarily maybe Collison, Bonner or Grant Hill. I’m leaning strongly towards just letting him sit on my bench for month, but what do you think?
given the circumstances, i’d hold on to him
I picked Westbrook because he’s on my team and I’m biased =)
But he was Rookie of the Month for December and he’s been averaging about 16 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, and 1.5 steals a game since becoming the starter.
Brook Lopez is probably the best fantasy rookie though.. I’m bitter that I dropped him a couple weeks into the season.
I knew Rose would undeservingly be #1 in the poll. He has really dropped off lately. 15 pts, 0.1 3ptm, 3 reb, 6 ast, 0.5 stl, and 43% shooting over the last month. Decent, but I think Westbrook is playing better.
I have westbrook on both my teams and have really loved his game (i punt FG% and TOs anyway).
Yeah turnovers isn’t even a category in our league, 8 categories. So I don’t even worry about that.
He has his great games and his 10 pt, 3 reb, 3 ast games.. But overall, I’m perfectly happy with him. Especially in a keeper league.
He’s the #3 rookie over the last month behind Lopez and Gordon.
I also went with lopez. he has been a key to my fantasy team’s success and has been best overall. I’d probably consider Rose and Mayo for actual R.O.Y. honors, but for fantasy I’ll back Lopez.
I chose Derrick Rose, though I initially thought about Lopez. I have Rose in a couple of keeper leagues, and I’m very satisfied with his performance so far. Gordon had been outstanding, too, but may not be so if he Clips are healthy.
I chose Gordon. He has really started heating up and the clippers will likely have more injuries or re-injuries allowing him to score more.
I picked Gordon as well, although my guess is that my reasoning differs from most people’s reasoning. I think Gordon should be the fantasy MVP because he went undrafted in most leagues and was purely a waiver wire pickup. Guys like Lopez, Rose, Mayo, Love, etc. were generally drafted. Thus, the impact of picking up Gordon (and having him produce at a high level) seems to me to have a greater impact on a fantasy team than if a guy were drafted (with the expectation of production).
Just my opinion.
i beg to differ with lopez – believe it or not, his brother robin was actually drafted often enough to log a yahoo ADP (3%, 132.7), while brook was not
I knew I should have checked the stats before posting about ADP. In that case, you have swayed my opinion!
Unless I am doing something wrong, I see Brook having an ADP of 139.8. Shockingly enough, this still puts Robin (132.7) ahead of Brook despite vastly disparate O-Ranks (Brook: 141, Robin: 453). I cannot think of any reason why Robin would have been drafted before Brook. It seems insane.
nope you got it .. i was mistaken
This blog is top notch. Good work. I picked up Lopez and Gordon a while back. Gordon can’t keep up his current production with Z-bo also coming back, can he?
Man, I have both AK47 and Tyson Chandler. Nothing else to put here, just whining. What’s a guy to do?
Brook Lopez. He is the only source of blocks(among other contributions) I have in my roto league… with Amar’e averaging 1 less block than last year and Kaman injured.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=awsuns012709&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Hey Buser, hey everyone, hope the fantasy season is treating everyone as well as it has for me.
I am just wondering if anyone else has read the Adrian Wojnarowski column on the Suns? Where did he get his sources and is it true? Seems like a deep and crazy story! I am a Shaq fan and I have drafted him every year out of dedication, so of course I drafted him this year. I drafted him in the 12th round and I am amazed at his production this year. He makes me look smart! Just wondering on everyones thoughts. Peace out and good luck
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-suns012709&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Sorry I messed up the link, here it is!
I’d love to say Mayo, but for 9 cat roto it’s Lopez. He’s 4th in the league in blocks (88) and only 3 away from 2nd place (91) and 82% from the line for a center. Yeah, I’ll take that off the waiver wire.
Great work on the site.
i knew BROOK LOPEZ was gonna be ROY!
hi can you help me out?
Someone offered me hakim warrick, chris bosh, rodney stuckey and jason richardson for ron artest, bibby and lamarcus aldridge. Should i accept?
yes but also depends on who you will drop
I would almost certainly take that trade even if the guy you drop is Warrick. However, I’m not sure if you are in a H2H or roto league but you will be taking a considerable drop in 3′s. I don’t think it really matters since your getting a super stud like Bosh.
i’d do it, but be sure that the big time category changes (from 3ptm and stl to fg%, ft%, blk) works with your team overall. won’t it be great to be rid of artest?
i’ve been trying to get rid of artest all season long, should have taken Aldridge for him straight up when i had the chance.
Also chose Brook Lopez for much of the same reasons as above. He’s proven to be the most consistent thus far and there are reasons to think his numbers might go up (PTS/Month = 10 November –> 11 in December –> 14 in January).
In December levels he’s at 14 pts on 51% FG, 89% FT, 8 rebounds (5 offensive) and 1.8 blks. If he can produce at that level and keep his TOs down, there isn’t even a contest (fantasy-wise) for MVP.
Mayo & Rose are legit in the real world but fantasy-wise there are some category weaknesses and they have proven to be relatively inconsistent.
Besides Lopez, Mayo & Love — I expect Jason Thompson and Kevin Love to have huge second halves and if Beasley ever gets starter’s minutes, the numbers should be Beastley (see what I did there?)
Lastly, for some reason, something just tells me Raja Bell will eat up most of Augustin’s value when he returns.
I picked up on the strong rookie crop early in the season, and thus my team is loaded with rooks; I presently have B. Lopez, Westbrook, Gordon, and Jason Thomspon; Westbrook and Thompson off waivers, and Lopez and Westbrook in a recent trade involving Mayo, whose stats seemed to be trending downwards when I made the trade. I thought that because of his high minutes with the Grizzlies, he might hit the fabled “wall.” Out of the four of them, I think that Westbrook is the most underated; he is owned in only 66% in Yahoo, reason, most likely due to high turnover rate and low FG%. Like a former contributor, I punt both categories, winning turnovers twice, and FG% once, and still managing to be in 3rd place in my league. Westbrook seems to be the most consistent of the trio; Gordon might slow down once the Clips get healthy, but Lopez in trending upwards every month. Patience with Jason Thompson has paid off;I think he will be 16/8 for the remainder of the season, and has a great FT%.
Yeah Westbrook is definitely the most underrated rookie. Anyone who owns him knows how talented he is. But everyone who doesn’t own him doesn’t seem to notice him.
If you compare Westbrook’s stats over the last 6 weeks with Rose’s stats, Westbrook’s are much better. Yet Rose has 29% of the vote on this poll and Westbrook only has 10%.
Rose being a #1 overall pick makes people think he’s playing much better than he is.
For a player as quick as Rose, his lack of steals are definitely disconcerting. Chalk it up to being a rookie on a trainwreck of a team coached by a rookie coach.
yeah vinny’s not exactly a defensive guru… rose’s D stats should be very nice as he matures
Al Harrington or Brook Lopez?
i like lopez in general but they are completely different players. whether you need 3ptm or blk will tip the scale