• Don Nelson’s latest stroke of genius? He’ll bench a veteran “here and there” and give the team’s young players extended playing time. Things get started Friday with Jamal Crawford, who will be inactive while C.J. Watson gets the start. The only vet that Nelson mentioned as potentially being immune was Stephen Jackson, with the reason being that the W’s are thin at small forward. While Crawford has dealt with the developments in a professional manner – “I’m going to do whatever Coach thinks is best for the team. I’m going to always show up for my team.” – his agent was understandably a bit less diplomatic:

“If the coach doesn’t want to play him, he should have a valid reason why he doesn’t want to play him … What is the message that Coach Nelson is sending the team? That he does not care about winning? You would think, in this day and time when fans work hard to pay for these tickets, that the coach would field the best possible team. Jamal may not score 50 points on the Bobcats again, but he would work hard to get a win and reward the fans for their loyalty to this team in this hard time.”

Owners in daily leagues will need to be on the lookout for updates – at least Nelson was merciful enough to give notice to us a few days out this time around. Those of you in weekly leagues need to downgrade your Warriors (outside of Jackson?) just a bit when making those weekly decisions.

• Other Friday status updates: Tim Duncan is a game-time decision, as is Steve Nash. … the Hawks are getting both Mike Bibby and Josh Smith back … Nene Hilario will make his return after missing just two games with a bruised knee … Mickael Pietrus will be back for the Magic … Eric Gordon (shoulder) is not expected to play, while Al Thornton (foot) will be a game-time decision … Beno Udrih is out at least the next two games with a right foot sprain.

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It happens every year. At least a few teams have their playoff situations pretty much locked up or are so far out of contention that cutting back certain players’ minutes (or benching them all together) in the final stretch of the regular season starts to make sense – whether to get rested and healthy for the playoffs or to ensure that minor injuries aren’t aggravated and suddenly become long-term concerns. Paul Pierce was a good example of the former last season – check out the numbers:

Nov-Feb: 57 G, 38 min, 20.3 pts, 1.7 3pt, 5.4 reb, 4.7 ast, 3.1 to, 1.4 stl, 0.4 blk
March: 16 G, 33 min, 19.1 pts, 1.6 3pt, 5 reb, 4.4 ast, 2 to, 1.1 stl, 0.6 blk
April: 7 G, 27 min, 15.3 pts, 2.7 3pt, 3 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.1 to, 1 stl, 0.3 blk

Obviously the spike in threes helped his cause (he made 50 percent of his attempts in April), but most of the numbers fantasy owners came to count on over the course of the season took substantial enough of a hit to matter, thanks to fewer minutes played. So who is at risk this season? Let’s take a look at things on a team-by-team basis.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (current record 44-11)
The Cavs are locked in a tight race with the Celtics for home court advantage throughout the playoffs, so they’ll keep the foot on the throttle for as long as they need to. You may remember that LeBron James was actually sitting out chucks of blowouts early in the season, the main reason that his minutes are currently at a career-low of just over 37 per game. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is one player they may want to monitor, but he sat out almost all of January with an ankle injury and his minutes (~27) are as low as they’ve been since the 2001-02 season.

2. Boston Celtics (46-12)
Paul Pierce and Ray Allen got the treatment last season as Boston was comfortably ahead of Detroit for best record in the conference. Even if Kevin Garnett hadn’t dealt with an abdominal injury during the second half, he would have been in the same situation. The race is much closer this season, and you have to imagine that the Celtics would prefer to once again have home court throughout, so it makes the team a bit less likely to rest their major players significantly. Cleveland isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, so I’m not in sell mode here.

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SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN

four-game teams: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, SAS, and UTH

three-game teams: GSW, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, OKC, TOR, and WAS

elsewhere on the web: NBA Schedule Analysis (RotoWire) and Basketball Monster ease rankings

PICKUPS/PLUG-INS

• Spencer Hawes, Francisco Garcia – the Kings dealt away both Hawes and Garcia’s main competition for playing time to the Bulls, freeing up the two to join the starting lineup. Both players deserve universal ownership, even as the Kings have little hope in the standings (2-15 over the past 17). In 14 games as a starting center this season, Hawes has averaged 11.9 points on 50 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 7.6 boards, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.8 blocks. In 29 career starts at small forward, Garcia has averaged 13.1 points, 1.2 threes, 5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1 block.

• Mike Conley – healthy skepticism regarding Conley is understood and encouraged, but we’re getting to a point where nobody can ignore what he’s been able to accomplish under Lionel Hollins. Conley has now scored in double figures in 11 straight games, averaging 14.6 points, 1.2 threes, 5.1 boards, 6.5 assists, and 1.3 steals over that span.

• Delonte West – West is expected to be back in the lineup for the Cavs on Sunday, so those of you who have been waiting to make a move on him have a very small window. West’s efficient line before his injury (12.3 points on 47 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 3.1 boards, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.1 turnovers, and 83 percent from the line) has his current per-game rank at 38. The Cavs are also one of four teams that are tied for the most games remaining on the schedule (28).

• Aaron Brooks – as anticipated, Brooks’ first game as the new starting point guard for the Rockets (Friday) was a success. In 34 minutes, he totaled 19 points, three treys, six boards, eight assists, and two steals. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be expecting a shooting percentage much higher than 40 percent, but the counting stats will be plentiful and the Rockets are one of two teams to play four games in each of the next four weeks. Kyle Lowry will play, but don’t overestimate his impact on Brooks’ minutes.

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Which of the following players, all in the midst of exceptionally productive runs, is the *least* likely to maintain their current output? (Yahoo! “Last Month (avg)” rank as of 2/22 listed)

Kevin Durant (#1)
13 GP, .529 fg%, .868 ft%, 1.6 3pt, 32.8 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.8 blk, 3.1 to

Brandon Roy (#8)
12 GP, .523 fg%, .828 ft%, 1.8 3pt, 24.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.0 to

Stephen Jackson (#11)
11 GP, .435 fg%, .847 ft%, 2.2 3pt, 23.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 7.5 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.7 blk, 3.6 to

Leandro Barbosa (#14)
14 GP, .571 fg%, .970 ft%, 1.7 3pt, 16.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.7 stl, 0 blk, 1.1 to

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• Reports emerged Friday morning that Amar’e Stoudemire will miss the remainder of the regular season after he underwent surgery to repair a partially detached retina in his right eye. That’s quite a hit for the Suns and for fantasy owners. Here’s how the Suns could be planning on moving forward, according to The Arizona Republic:

THE PLAN: Run, run, run. They did not make an announcement about what the new starting lineup would be but it sounds like Grant Hill could be sliding to power forward with Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa on the wings. It’s going to mean continued time for Louis Amundson and Jared Dudley and possibly Robin Lopez too. Matt Barnes will also see time at power forward. The Suns think they can continue with the same style and even the pick-and-rolls but that the finishes just won’t be the same. They are obviously going to live and die by their perimeter shooting more often. The night of ridiculous points in the paint tallies are likely gone and Alvin Gentry has already gone to the aforementioned group and told them they will need to step their games up.

Barbosa isn’t available in competitive leagues, but he’s the clear beneficiary in that scenario. Barnes and Amundson figure to see more minutes regardless of the specifics of the team’s gameplan, so act accordingly. Shaquille O’Neal now owns the paint for the Suns and is not happy that the team was shopping him at the deadline, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to both of these developments.

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There’s now a link in the left pane to a “Starting Lineup Tracker”. Click it and you’ll find a link for each team, with starting lineups listed for the team’s most recent five games, player totals for the past 30 days, and season-to-date totals for all players. We’ll call the next few days the beta testing phase, so feel free to post any comments or suggestions, as well as any errors* you may notice.

*While it’s safe to call this information largely “correct”, there can’t help but be a few cases where some subjectivity is used to determine which player started where – a good example is the Warriors on just about any given night. You may question some of these choices and may find information elsewhere that will be slightly different – that’s where the subjectivity comes in. If you notice an error to the effect of DeSagana Diop being listed as having one start at shooting guard for the Lakers, please bring it to my attention.

Also, keep in mind that there may be a delay in the data being updated, but it shouldn’t ever be more than a day or two behind.

• The major trade from Wednesday was a three-teamer:

The Bulls acquired center Brad Miller and John Salmons from the Kings on Wednesday for four players, including forwards Drew Gooden and Andres Nocioni. Sacramento also got Michael Ruffin and Cedric Simmons in the deal, but immediately traded Ruffin to the Trail Blazers for forward Ike Diogu and cash. The Kings then waived guard Quincy Douby and veteran Sam Cassell, acquired on Tuesday from Boston, to make room for their new players.

Obviously, only the first four players mentioned in the blurb have an impact in fantasy, so we’re just dealing with them. Let’s take a look at how the substantially affected rosters shake out now:

Chicago Bulls (also adjusted for the Hughes, Sefolosha trades)
PG: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Anthony Roberson, Lindsey Hunter
SG: Ben Gordon
SF: Luol Deng, John Salmons
PF: Tyrus Thomas, Tim Thomas
C: Brad Miller, Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray, Jerome James

There aren’t a lot of clear “winners” from a fantasy perspective in the deal for the Bulls. Miller will start when he’s healthy, taking a bit of the shine off of Noah’s recent productive stretch. Over the past 13 games – all starts – he’s averaged 8.3 points on 58 percent shooting, 9.2 boards, and 2.1 blocks; falling back closer to his season averages (5.4 points, 6.7 boards, and 1.4 blocks in 21 minutes) seems realistic with Miller in the fold, although he should also start seeing a few more minutes at power forward. Salmons, in the midst of a career season, takes a hit as the Bulls’ sixth man – there’s simply no way his minutes (37-plus) will remain the same. Don’t panic just yet – there remains the possibility that the Bulls will flip Salmons to another of his previous suitors (Oklahoma City?) before the deadline. If he remains with the Bulls, he could end up poaching a few minutes from Gordon (36 per game) and Deng (35).

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• The Thunder have acquired Tyson Chandler from the Hornets in exchange for Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith. It’s a cost-cutting move for New Orleans, as Chandler will make $11.9 million next season and has a player option for $12.8 million in 2010-11, while both Wilcox and Smith have expiring deals.

Wilcox would immediately regain fantasy relevance as the starting center for the Hornets, where he could approach his career-best numbers catching lobs from Chris Paul (like Chandler was supposed to be doing). He’s worth an immediate speculative add in plenty of formats. If Chandler couldn’t get things going alongside Paul, then there isn’t a lot of hope for him elsewhere and he remains at best a middling fantasy option – once he’s healthy enough to return to the lineup, he will serve to squash Nick Collison’s numbers and cloud Nenad Krstic’s role.

• Jason Richardson has been suspended by the Suns for one game (Tuesday) after he was charged with driving 90 mph in a 35 mph zone on Sunday night. He spent a few hours in jail and was charged with reckless driving and excessive speed, and also endangerment and failure to use a child seat as his three-year-old son was found unrestrained in the back seat. J-Rich, of course, has already apologized profusely for the incident. Leandro Barbosa and Matt Barnes will see extra minutes versus the Clippers.

• In more substantive Suns news, the team has abruptly ended the Terry Porter era, naming Alvin Gentry as interim coach. (more…)

So the much-speculated deal finally went down today. Apparently the Heat felt good enough about what O’Neal (15.6 points, 7.4 boards, 3.3 blocks, and 36 minutes over the past eight games) and Michael Beasley (14 points, 5.9 boards over the past 21 games) have been showing to finally pull the trigger. And the swapping out of Banks for Moon is a clear win for the Heat. Let’s take a look at the new depth charts:

Miami Heat
PG: Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn
SG: Dwyane Wade, Daequan Cook, James Jones
SF: Michael Beasley, Jamario Moon, Yakhouba Diawara, Dorell Wright
PF: Udonis Haslem
C: Jermaine O’Neal, Joel Anthony, Jamaal Magloire, Mark Blount

It’s no guarantee that Beasley starts at small forward, but it makes sense to me that he would. Moon should see similar playing time either way, with Beasley seeing playing time at both forward positions either way. Considering what O’Neal is replacing at center – Anthony and Magloire have combined for 4.1 FGA in 30 minutes per game – we could see Wade’s scoring decline ever-so-slightly (an uptick in efficiency could make that a wash). And in O’Neal’s case, of course, everything hinges on his health.

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