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Looking Ahead to… NBA Free Agency

**Don’t forget to add your profile to the Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry if you have yet to do so**

Here’s a breakdown of potential notable free agents for the coming off-season. It’s early, but I’ve also tried to nail down some of the possible outcomes for the names with some level of fantasy relevance.  But before we get to the players, let’s break down team salary situations versus the cap, which we can safely assume will be just over $60 million next season. Here are team totals based on HoopsHype salary information – keep in mind that I haven’t triple-checked their info, so I can’t speak to the complete validity of all these numbers. Team commitments to players for the 2009/10 season are listed, with player options assumed to be exercised and team options assumed to be declined.

Under the cap: Detroit (33.1), Memphis (34.2), Atlanta (40.9), Oklahoma City (41.8), Toronto (45.8), New Jersey (50.4), Portland (50.6), Minnesota (50.8), Sacramento (51.9), Charlotte (56.6), LA Clippers (56.7), Philadelphia (57.2), Indiana (57.8), and Golden State (59.3)

Over the cap: New Orleans (76.5), Washington (75.9), LA Lakers (74.1), Boston (72.4), Cleveland (71.9), Utah (71.2), Orlando (70.6), New York (69.9), Miami (69.6), Dallas (68.8), San Antonio (66.0), Houston (65.0), Milwaukee (64.7), Denver (63.2), Chicago (63.0), and Phoenix (62.3)

Legend: ETO = early termination option, PO = player option, TO = team option, R = restricted free agent, UR = unrestricted free agent

Chris Andersen• Chris Andersen (UR) – this guy loves playing in Denver and the feeling is mutual. He’ll have some suitors, but give the Nuggets the edge – he’s a good candidate for their mid-level exception.

• Trevor Ariza (UR) – Ariza is only 23 and should be one of the more sought-after players on the market, and the Lakers are already well over the cap for next season. I can see Toronto, New Jersey, and Minnesota being very interested.

• Ron Artest (UR) – things have worked out pretty well for Artest in Houston, particularly with Tracy McGrady on the shelf. But, the Rockets have no cap room and won’t be able to match a substantive offer from another team. Two questions: will someone else take a chance on Artest, and how much do the Rockets wish T-Mac’s $20 million salary (plus) was coming off the books this off-season as opposed to next?

• Mike Bibby (UR) – Bibby had an up-and-down season statistically but provided needed leadership for the young Hawks and played a big part in their success while Acie Law, the team’s “PG of the future”, played 300 fewer minutes this season than he did as a rookie. Expect the Hawks to be very interested in retaining his services and for the feeling to be mutual.

• Carlos Boozer (PO) – Boozer has been saying for some time now that he plans to opt out of the final year of his contract ($12.7M) because he’ll be “due for a raise” even if he re-signs with the Jazz. Of course, playing fewer than 40 games for the second time in four years isn’t likely to help his market value. This one could go either way: he’s been known to go back on his word before (doh!), but he’s proven himself as a consistent double-double when he’s healthy, something that any team covets. Utah is likely to want to shed his salary and pay Paul Millsap less for comparable production. A sign-and-trade might be a best-case scenario for all parties involved; regardless, Boozer manning the post for the Pistons makes plenty of sense.

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Consensus Keeper Rankings: 30-39

**Don’t forget to add your profile to the Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry if you have yet to do so**

The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with a number of players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. Polls will stay live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.

Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along. I’ll make a new post every so often, as to avoid getting multiple pages deep in terms of comments. If you have an active conversation going in the previous post(s), by all means keep it going – just start new conversations here.

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Quick Hitters – 04.23

LeBron JamesLeBron James was the only player in the league to finish in the top 50 in total points, threes, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and no other player even managed five of those stats. Seven players were in the top 50 in four stats (Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd, Antawn Jamison, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups, and Nate Robinson), while 31 more were in the top 50 in three stats.

• A player’s volume of direct involvement in their team’s total made field goals is a stat that came to my attention during last season’s MVP race, and I’ve been monitoring it since. Like last season, Chris Paul was once again the run-away leader – his 1,491 FGM+AST (631 FGM, 860 AST) represented 51.2 percent of the Hornets’ total FGM (2,911) and narrowly missed John Stockton’s all-time mark of 51.7 percent from the 1990-91 seas0n. Paul’s mark was also two percentage points higher than last season (.491). The rest of the top 15:

Dwyane Wade (.476), LeBron James (.455), Deron Williams (.378), Tony Parker (.373), Joe Johnson (.364), Kobe Bryant (.363), Derrick Rose (.347). Raymond Felton (.347), Brandon Roy (.342), Andre Miller (.342), Steve Nash (.340), Rajon Rondo (.339), Vince Carter (.330), and Andre Iguodala (.326).

Tyrus Thomas was quietly massive for the Bulls down the stretch, averaging 12.8 points, 7.1 boards, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks in 29 games after the All-Star break and posting a per-game rank of 18th over the final month of the season (15.2 points on 51 percent shooting, 6.8 boards, 1.2 steals, 2.8 blocks in 13 G).

Thomas, Brad Miller, and Joakim Noah formed a very productive frontcourt trio for the Bulls down the stretch – Miller averaged 11.8 points on 48 percent shooting, 7.4 boards, 3.2 assists in 27 games for the Bulls and Noah went for 8.9 points on 58 percent shooting, 9.3 boards, 0.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks after the break.

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Consensus Keeper Rankings Discussion: 24-29

Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along. I’ll make a new post every so often, as to avoid getting multiple pages deep in terms of comments. If you have an active conversation going in the previous post(s), by all means keep it going – just start new conversations here.

The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with eight or ten players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. The plan for now is to leave polls live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.

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Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry – Comments and Discussion

The Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry is live!

Feel free to post any questions or comments in the thread on our forum here.

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Consensus Keeper Rankings Discussion: 15-23

Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along. I’ll make a new post every so often, as to avoid getting multiple pages deep in terms of comments. If you have an active conversation going in the previous post(s), by all means keep it going – just start new conversations here.

The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with eight or ten players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. The plan for now is to leave polls live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.

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Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry – Add Your Profile

The Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry is live!

Are you looking get involved in more competitive fantasy hoops leagues next season? Have you ever wondered how your fantasy basketball resume stacks up against those of your peers?

In an effort to facilitate league matchmaking and establish a registry and leaderboard for fantasy hoops players, I’m soliciting any/all of you to submit the link to your Yahoo! fantasy profile.

Visit our forums for more information and sign-ups.

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Consensus Keeper Rankings Discussion: 6-14

Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along. I’ll make a new post every so often, as to avoid getting multiple pages deep in terms of comments. If you have an active conversation going in the previous post(s), by all means keep it going – just start new conversations here.

The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with eight or ten players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. The plan for now is to leave polls live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.

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Consensus Keeper Rankings Discussion: Top 5

One of the first subjects to tackle in the fantasy NBA off-season is keeper rankings for the coming season. Rather than simply post a list of my own – or at least prior to posting a list of my own – I thought a better idea would be to compile a consensus list through a series of polls.

The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with eight or ten players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. The plan for now is to leave polls live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.

Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along.

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Week 24/25 Rundown

Icon SMISCHEDULE BREAKDOWN

six-game teams: MEM, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAS, and TOR

five-game teams: ATL,BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIN, NJN, NYK, PHO, and UTH

four-game teams: DEN, MIL, and WAS

five best schedules:
Minnesota (@LAC, @GSW, PHO, @DAL, SAC)
Toronto (ATL, @IND, WAS, PHI, @WAS, @CHI)
San Antonio (@OKC, POR, UTH, @SAC, @GSW, NOR)
Portland (@MEM, @SAS, LAL, @LAC, OKC, DEN)
Phoenix (@NOR, @MEM, @MIN, MEM, GSW)

five worst schedules:
Washington (@CLE, @TOR, TOR, @BOS)
Denver (OKC, @LAL, SAC, @POR)
Milwaukee (ATL, OKC, ORL, @IND)
New Jersey (@BOS, @DET, ORL, CHA, @NYK)
Dallas (UTH, NOR, NOR, MIN, HOU)

elsewhere on the web: The Week Ahead (Rotoworld), NBA Injuries (Rotoworld), and Basketball Monster ease rankings

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Fantasy Baseball Notable Free Agents – 04.04

I did a quick run-through of Yahoo! ownership numbers, and the following players – all rostered in less than 35% of leagues – stood out to me as particularly noteworthy.

Jeremy HermidaJeremy Hermida (Fla – OF) 34%
At age 25, Hermida is a quintessential post-hype sleeper. He followed up a solid 2007 season (123 G, .296/.369/.501) with a down 2008 (.249/.323/.406), so there’s little fanfare remaining for Baseball America’s No.4 overall prospect from 2006. If – wait for it – he can stay healthy, he’s got a very good chance to realize that 20/20 potential. In his one season above Single-A before his big-league promotion (2005, age 21), he hit .293/.457/.518 in 118 games, with 49 extra-base hits (29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR), 23 steals, and 111:89 BB:K. At least keep an eye on him – he’s hit .297/.357/.554 in 74 spring at bats.

Adam Lind (Tor – OF) 32%
Lind is a 25-year-old who mashed in Triple-A (.333/.406/.525 in 472 AB) and is looking to build on what has to be considered a solid big league showing last season (.282/.316/.439 in 326 AB). He’s one to watch at the very least.

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD – 3B) 22%
Kouzmanoff has hit at every level he’s played at (career .332/.395/.556 minors line in 1,310 AB). He’s got Petco Park working against him, but I’d be more surprised if he didn’t take a reasonable step forward this season than if he did. In 74 games between a slow start and a slow finish last season, he hit .290 and slugged .519 (16 HR, 50 RBI in 293 AB).

Todd Helton (Col – 1B) 16%
Last season’s struggles (83 G, .264/.391/.388, 7 HR) made it easy to forget that Helton batted .320/.434/.494 in 2007. Last season wasn’t so much a decline in skills as it was serious back issues that eventually required surgery. The back is much better now and he’s hit five doubles and four home runs in just 40 spring at bats, while posting a tidy .525/.556/.950 line. Nobody should be expecting a swan song for his old power numbers, but if your team needs some batting average help, there are much worse flyers to be taken.

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Poll Discussion – 04.03

What is your favorite/preferred league setting for fantasy basketball?

• rotisserie – 9-categories
• rotisserie – 8-categories (no TO)
• head-to-head – 9-categories
• head-to-head – 8-categories (no TO)
• head-to-head – points (assign point values to each statistic)
• points-only (roto-like first-to-last standings)
• rotisserie – unique settings (lots of extra cats, just a few, or a mash-up of things)
• head-to-head – unique settings (lots of extra cats, just a few, or a mash-up of things)

I’m very curious as to the results of this poll, and hopefully we get some discussion going. I’m locked in the two-week finals matchup of a long-time h2h-points league that I’m involved in with “industry” folks, and I have to admit that it’s probably my most enjoyable league experience (I’ll discuss that league in detail after the season ends). With that said, my preferred setting in general is 9-cat roto.

I sent an email to the other managers in the league last week pointing out that it’s probably convinced me that h2h-points is superior to standard 9-cat h2h. And if you like the standard h2h setup, I might suggest dropping both AST and TO and using AST:TO instead. I’ve signed off of h2h baseball altogether. To me, the comparison would be a marathon where the fastest half after 22 miles are lined up for a restart for the final four miles.

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Quick Hitters – 04.02

Rasheed Wallace• By now you’ve heard about Allen Iverson‘s difficulties adjusting to his role as a reserve – he’s averaged 19 minutes in three games since returning from an inactive streak (back) that lasted just over a month (16 G). Iverson said “I can play 18 minutes with my eyes closed, with a 100-pound truck on my back,” after the Pistons’ 79-73 loss to the Cavs on Tuesday. Fantasy owners need to skip the psychological examination of all parties involved and cut to the chase – it’s getting ugly in Detroit and isn’t going to improve in the final seven games. It’s takes a rare set of variables for AI to warrant a roster spot at this point.

And now there’s talk of Kwame Brown remaining the starting five, with Rasheed Wallace joining AI on the second unit. If it comes to fruition, Sheed suddenly takes a sizeable hit and becomes a questionable play during the championship week. The Pistons have a five-game schedule with a few favorable matchups (@NYK, NJN, @IND, CHI, @MIN), but Kwame (4.6 pts, 6 reb, o.5 blk in 28 starts) wouldn’t gain enough value to matter in many leagues.

Josh Howard‘s aggravated left wrist is “sore”, but there’s been no official indication as to the extent of the injury. It doesn’t appear to be serious, but stay tuned for further updates. Dallas’ remaining two games this week are solid fantasy matchups (@MEM, PHO).

Leandro Barbosa is hoping to return on Friday but, as of Wednesday, his leg was painful every time he jumped and sore every time he stood up. Consider him questionable at this point. If Barbosa can’t go, think about activating Jared Dudley – he had 17 points, 11 boards, and three steals in 27 minutes at Sacramento this past Sunday.

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MLB resources page added

You will now find an MLB resources page similar to what I already have for hoops in the left pane. Click the “MLB Resources” link to have a look at it and please post any and all recommended links (news/analysis, blogs, tools, message boards, etc) in the comments for this post.

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