I did a quick run-through of Yahoo! ownership numbers, and the following players – all rostered in less than 35% of leagues – stood out to me as particularly noteworthy.
• Jeremy Hermida (Fla – OF) 34%
At age 25, Hermida is a quintessential post-hype sleeper. He followed up a solid 2007 season (123 G, .296/.369/.501) with a down 2008 (.249/.323/.406), so there’s little fanfare remaining for Baseball America’s No.4 overall prospect from 2006. If – wait for it – he can stay healthy, he’s got a very good chance to realize that 20/20 potential. In his one season above Single-A before his big-league promotion (2005, age 21), he hit .293/.457/.518 in 118 games, with 49 extra-base hits (29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR), 23 steals, and 111:89 BB:K. At least keep an eye on him – he’s hit .297/.357/.554 in 74 spring at bats.
• Adam Lind (Tor – OF) 32%
Lind is a 25-year-old who mashed in Triple-A (.333/.406/.525 in 472 AB) and is looking to build on what has to be considered a solid big league showing last season (.282/.316/.439 in 326 AB). He’s one to watch at the very least.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD – 3B) 22%
Kouzmanoff has hit at every level he’s played at (career .332/.395/.556 minors line in 1,310 AB). He’s got Petco Park working against him, but I’d be more surprised if he didn’t take a reasonable step forward this season than if he did. In 74 games between a slow start and a slow finish last season, he hit .290 and slugged .519 (16 HR, 50 RBI in 293 AB).
• Todd Helton (Col – 1B) 16%
Last season’s struggles (83 G, .264/.391/.388, 7 HR) made it easy to forget that Helton batted .320/.434/.494 in 2007. Last season wasn’t so much a decline in skills as it was serious back issues that eventually required surgery. The back is much better now and he’s hit five doubles and four home runs in just 40 spring at bats, while posting a tidy .525/.556/.950 line. Nobody should be expecting a swan song for his old power numbers, but if your team needs some batting average help, there are much worse flyers to be taken.
• Carlos Villanueva (Mil – SP, RP) 16%
It’s never a good sign for a 41-year-old pitcher to begin the season on the DL, and that’s exactly what Trevor Hoffman is going to do thanks to an oblique strain. Even when he’s not poaching saves from Hoffman, Villanueva’s great ratios and strikeout rate are going to help fantasy teams plenty. In his 38 relief appearances last season, he posted a 2.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 59.1 innings, with 62 strikeouts.
• Mark Teahen (KC – 1B, 3B, OF) 15%
Two things to note about Teahen: his ridiculous spring numbers (.431/.476/.897, 7 HR, 3 SB in 18 G) and his impending eligibility at second base.
• Daniel Murphy (NYM – OF) 14%
Murphy has been getting hyped in some circles since being tabbed for the two-hole in the Mets’ lineup by Jerry Manuel. There aren’t an exceptional amount of better places to bat than between Jose Reyes and David Wright. Murphy never had mind-boggling minors numbers but did hit .298/.356/.457 in 877 at bats in 2007-08, has shown excellent plate discipline (.397 OBP in 49 G for the Mets last season), and will put the ball in play more often than not. The signing of Gary Sheffield muddies the waters a bit, but Murphy is still looking at a great situation for success.
• Alexi Casilla (Min – 2B) 14%
Casilla was just 23 last season but settled in comfortably as the Twins’ No.2 hitter and his season stats (98 G, .281, 58 R, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 7 SB) projected to 95 runs, 11 home runs, 82 runs batted in, and 11 steals over 160 games. His pace of 1.1 R+RBI per game was in the same territory as Brandon Phillips, Jose Lopez, and Alexei Ramirez. His very good minors numbers were hightlighted by a .370 on-base percentage (160:179 BB:K in 397 G) and 61 steals per 160 games. The power was a bit of a surprise last season, but so was the lack of steals.
• Jesse Litsch (Tor – SP) 14%
Litsch is ratio-help-in-waiting where he’s currently available. At age 23, he’s posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 287.0 career innings. He was money for the Blue Jays down the stretch last season, compiling a 1.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his final 61.0 innings, while raising his strikeout rate to a respectable 5.9/9. He gets it done with a high ground-ball rate (career 48.4%) and pinpoint control (career 2.4 BB/9), skills that also helped him compile solid minors numbers. He’s a great complement for your staff if you are carrying someone like Ubaldo Jimenez or Manny Parra – high-volume strikeout pitchers with questionable ratios.
• Kendry Morales (LAA – OF) 12%
The future is now for the Angels and Morales, yet another 25-year-old. His minors resume is stellar (.337/.393/.546 in 1,774 AB) and a gig as the team’s everyday first baseman is his to lose. He’s posted a .398/.427/.675 line in 83 spring at bats, with 10 doubles, two triples, and three home runs among his 32 hits.
• Skip Schumaker (StL – OF) 11%
Schumaker is notable for deep-league owners in that he’ll be due eligibility at second base five-ish games into the season. He’s going to hit for a solid average and score runs from the leadoff position for the Cardinals.
• Jason Kubel (Min – OF) 10%
Kubel may seem like a crusty vet at this point, but he’s entering the 2009 season at age 26 and is poised for a breakout campaign. He has struggled against lefties during his career, but hit .292 over his final 87 games last season, with 52 runs, 14 home runs, and 49 runs batted in. He’s slated to be the Twins’ full-time DH and No.5 hitter.
• Mike Fontenot (ChC – 2B) 9%
In case you hadn’t noticed, Fontenot is slated to be the Cubs’ everyday second baseman and has compiled a .290 average, 34 doubles, and 12 home runs in 479 career at bats to this point. If he approaches that type of production over a full season, he’ll be among the best options after the elite players at the position.
• Cody Ross (Fla – OF) 6%
Need cheap run production? It doesn’t come much cheaper than this. Ross has totaled 48 doubles and 34 home runs in 634 at bats over the past two seasons, and he’s looking at a full-time job from the outset for the Marlins.
• Marcus Thames (Det – OF) 4%
Thames doesn’t hit the ball very often, but it usually travels a long way when he does. He’s batted just .243 in his five seasons with the Tigers, but has also averaged 36 home runs for every 500 at bats during those years, including 25 (and a .241 average) in just 316 at bats last season. Thames is penciled in as the team’s everyday DH now that Gary Sheffield has been released.
• Emmanuel Burriss (SF – 2B, SS) 3%
Burriss should be on everyone’s fantasy radar now that he’s won the second base gig for the Giants. He showed some good things as a rookie last season (.283, 23:24 BB:K, 13 SB in 95 G) and his minor league track record suggests massive amounts of stolen bases could be on the way. In 204 minor league games, he swiped 105 bags.
• David Freese (StL – 3B) 2%
Freese is in line to fill the Cardinals’ vacancy at third base, created by Troy Glaus’ injury. Andy Behrens went into some detail about Freese here, the highlight being that he hit .306/.361/.550 in Triple-A last season, with 26 home runs in 131 games.
nice list there, i’d offer a couple more but people in 1 of my leagues come here too often. been trying to decide if i should pull the trigger on teahen in a couple of leagues, since that flexibility is always nice…
yeah he doesn’t have great power or speed, but his numbers and pos elig should be ‘useful’ especially once you get past standard depth
i only play in 1 standard depth 10-12 team league b/c i don’t like all the talent on the FA wire, so i’ve been watching his spring numbers pretty close.
with his 2006-2007 numbers, he is probably worth the last roster spot since he can be plugged in ty wiggy style and not kill your team anywhere (or if he does stink, easy cut).
when you are looking at ian stewart and skip schumaker as your 2b and KGreene as your MI like I am, his numbers might play.
I love Ross’ per game numbers, but what about Maybin? The Marlins list Hermida in right, Maybin in center, and Brett Carroll in left on their depth chart, are you sure he’ll get a full time gig?
yeah brett carroll is listed as a starting OF in error
Is he worth dropping Barmes, or Wigginton for? It’s tough, but I think Barmes will be hitting eigth.
none of the three players are sure things but i’d probably stick with what you’ve got. add ross to your watch list, though
do you think Ryan Braun is still worth a top10 draft pick?
Actually he probably is. Top 15 at the worst.
Better question is how much do you think his injuries will affect him and how long.
no clue. he seems ‘okay’ but nobody can say for sure when he’ll actually be at 100%
Who do you think has the better 2009 season: Lester or Oswalt?
And can I get your projection for Fielder? I’m debating whether or not I should move him in my keeper.
i like oswalt of the two. i’ve always dogged lester because of his minor league walk rates – obviously his control appeared to improve dramtically last season, but i can’t help but think his numbers will be worse this season. it may just be a bias at this point, though
fielder: .282, 40 HR
Are there any decent adds out there with a high K total? I’m hearing a lot of rumblings about dropping Duchsherer.
looking at players below 35% owned: wandy rodriguez, ian snell, and randy wolf are probably the best options for solid K/9
what are the chances of Alex Gordon and Rickie Weeks finally breaking out.
well, both of them are certainly great late targets but you need to set realistic expectations. gordon should show at least more incremental improvements, meaning .280/23 is pretty reasonable. and i expect weeks to settle in as a .260-ish hitter, which is okay where you are getting him when it’s attached to 20/20
Should Brett Gardner move up significantly in the rankings since he was announced as the starting CF? Paul Bourdett said he’s a potential 45 steal guy; is he that much of a power liability that we shouldn’t be jumping on him (over Coco Crisp, for example)?
great speed and a good BB:K (potentially) are a really good combination but he definitely has zero HR power. the reason to not jump all over him is because he hit .228 last season and melky cabrera is still around if he does struggle. crisp could actually be pretty productive atop the royals’ lineup this year, so i’d probably hold tight with him
Matt, my second baseman in a 16-team league are Orlando Hudson and Barmes, nothing scary.
If you were me, would you aquire Burris? I already own Reyes, Kemp and Ellsbury, so I’m solid with stolen bases. Just have below-average second baseman.
Thanks, love the site.
would it be a trade? if you are talking about an add/drop, who would you drop?
It would be an add/drop.One of the second baseman I mentioned, JJ PUtz (we don’t count holds)or Sean Marshall.
Is Burris an upgrade?
Or Dan Wheeler…sorry.
well i don’t exactly have high hopes for sean marshall, so i’d think you could drop him and not miss him
btw, click the ‘reply’ button to keep the conversation going in the same ‘string’
Hi Matt,
Love the site; thanks for all the advice. Will you be switching over to baseball full time next week?
Standard public league question for you: Both Wieters and Price were dropped today, and I have waiver priority. I’d say my rotation needs more help, and I’m pretty happy with Sandoval. But before I decide who to pick up, two questions:
1. Do you have an ETA on either player? They only need to stay down for a few more weeks to delay arbitration another year, correct? I know the O’s say they want Wieters to have more practice at AAA; I don’t think the Rays have a performance-based reason for keeping Price in the minors. So Price should be the first up, correct?
2. How big is the “holy crap, it’s Matt Wieters” factor? I understand that Price is the nearly consensual top pitching prospect, but I’ve never heard anyone refer to him as God. I’m wondering if that, combined with position scarcity (I can always trade Pablo) might be enough for Wieters to win this battle.