• LeBron James was the only player in the league to finish in the top 50 in total points, threes, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and no other player even managed five of those stats. Seven players were in the top 50 in four stats (Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd, Antawn Jamison, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups, and Nate Robinson), while 31 more were in the top 50 in three stats.
• A player’s volume of direct involvement in their team’s total made field goals is a stat that came to my attention during last season’s MVP race, and I’ve been monitoring it since. Like last season, Chris Paul was once again the run-away leader – his 1,491 FGM+AST (631 FGM, 860 AST) represented 51.2 percent of the Hornets’ total FGM (2,911) and narrowly missed John Stockton’s all-time mark of 51.7 percent from the 1990-91 seas0n. Paul’s mark was also two percentage points higher than last season (.491). The rest of the top 15:
Dwyane Wade (.476), LeBron James (.455), Deron Williams (.378), Tony Parker (.373), Joe Johnson (.364), Kobe Bryant (.363), Derrick Rose (.347). Raymond Felton (.347), Brandon Roy (.342), Andre Miller (.342), Steve Nash (.340), Rajon Rondo (.339), Vince Carter (.330), and Andre Iguodala (.326).
• Tyrus Thomas was quietly massive for the Bulls down the stretch, averaging 12.8 points, 7.1 boards, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks in 29 games after the All-Star break and posting a per-game rank of 18th over the final month of the season (15.2 points on 51 percent shooting, 6.8 boards, 1.2 steals, 2.8 blocks in 13 G).
Thomas, Brad Miller, and Joakim Noah formed a very productive frontcourt trio for the Bulls down the stretch – Miller averaged 11.8 points on 48 percent shooting, 7.4 boards, 3.2 assists in 27 games for the Bulls and Noah went for 8.9 points on 58 percent shooting, 9.3 boards, 0.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks after the break.
• Lost in most of the other numbers during O.J. Mayo‘s impressive rookie season was the fact that he played the third-most minutes in the league (3,120), averaging just over 38 minutes while playing all 82 games.
• Brandon Rush averaged 15.9 points on 47 percent shooting, 2 threes, 5.4 boards, 0.7 steals, and 0.8 blocks in his 19 starts and should have the opportunity to build on that success next season. Jim O’Brien has said that he’ll approach the 2009-10 season as if Mike Dunleavy is not coming back, something that’s not much of a stretch at this point.
• Clearly, the Knicks are going to be a fantasy goldmine as long as Mike D’Antoni is around. The question is, who will fill out the team’s starting five next season? David Lee and Nate Robinson are both restricted free agents, and at least one is likely to be playing somewhere else next season; it’s no secret that the Knicks are putting more emphasis on the next offseason than the soon-to-be current. Amazingly, the trio of Al Harrington, Quentin Richardson, and Eddy Curry are set to exercise a combined $30 million in player options for the 2009-10 season.
Some of the names that stood out to me while sorting through player per-35 minute averages (any rankings mentioned are among players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game):
• Trevor Ariza – his 2.4 steals were fourth in the league, and were paired with tidy averages of 12.8 points, 1.1 threes, 6.2 boards, 2.5 assists, and 0.4 blocks. He’s just 23 and an unrestricted free agent, and the Lakers are already well over the cap for next season.
• Anthony Randolph – averaged 15.5 points, 11.3 boards (15th), 1.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks (19th). Other than his coach, what’s not to like? Just don’t be expecting much of a discount in next year’s drafts.
• Michael Beasley – his 19.6 points were good for 33rd in the league and he also averaged 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, and made 41 percent of his threes…not too shabby for a 20-year-old.
• Kevin Love – his 12.5 boards were good for seventh in the league and he also averaged 15.4 points, 0.9 blocks, and 5.7 free throw attempts. In case you missed it, he led the league in offensive rebound rate.
• Marcin Gortat – there was less of a drop-off from D12 than you probably expected, as this 25-year-old averaged 12.7 boards (5th) and 2.3 blocks (21st). He’s a restricted free agent and should have at least a few serious suitors.
• Greg Oden – sure, he averaged 11.3 boards (14th) and 1.9 blocks (34th); he also averaged six fouls for every 33 minutes played, and his foul rate increased as the season progressed. Don’t get carried away with expectations moving forward before you know he’s made dramatic improvements on that front.
• Roy Hibbert – posted numbers (17.2 points, 8.4 boards, 2.6 blocks) that compared favorably to Oden’s, but also fouled at a prolific rate – Oden fouled once every 5.5 minutes, Hibbert once every 4.7 minutes. Rasho Nesterovic is a free agent, so Hibbert’s starting role from this season should carry over to 2009-10. There’s a good chance I’ll be targeting him as a C3 in most leagues.
• Will Bynum – his averages (17.9 points, 6.9 assists, 1.5 steals) were better than Rodney Stuckey’s (14.7 points, 5.4 assists, 1.1 steals) for the most part. Stuckey is their future, but a slow start could make things interesting next season.
• James Singleton – this late-bloomer with a few years of service in Europe (think Anthony Parker) produced when he got the time (12.4 points, 0.5 threes, 9.9 boards, 1 steal, 1.1 blocks) and is an unrestricted free agent.
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I never would have won my league without Randolph and Thomas down the stretch, I’m definitely buying next year. Also, very impressed with Nate, that’s some elite company he’s in, less minutes too, hopefully he catches on somewhere he’s more appreciated.
it will be interesting to see the market for nate and lee. the knicks are crazy if they let them both walk because they think lebron will leave cleveland (i don’t think he will, btw)
Yeah, I doubt Lebron walks away from a record year and championship calibre team to start over from scratch. If we ‘have’ to lose Bosh here in TO, I would welcome a Lee trade, I’m sure NY would go for that.
the most unreported bit of news about the ‘summer of lebron’ is that the cavs are going to be set up beautifully themselves. between this offseason and next, the cavs have over $50M coming off the books
yeah so true. goodbye ben, wally, and ilgauskas. they’ll have solid guards in mo-will, west, and gibson, but they need to re-up varejao (at least 6-7 million) or they’ll be dangerously thin up front. add amare or bosh (and a glue guy) to that mix though and you’re talking dynasty.
How ’bout Wilson Chandler, how do you think of him next season?
yeah he should be even better and could be in the elusive 1+ 3pt/stl/blk club. and he looks that much better if the knicks let other talent walk
I feel like Anthony Randolph will be the new Tyrus Thomas… He is really athletic, ton of upside, from LSU, and will be in a log-jam. Most of Randolph’s production came with half the team injured.. With Brandon Wright also progressing, and the return of a lot of regulars, do you think Randolph might end up being a big headache for owners?
As for Beasley, do you think he’ll develop a good 3pt shot? I’m actually starting to really like him. Sometimes he seems just average, but those occasional brilliant games (didn’t he set a rookie scoring record at the Rookie/Soph Challenge?) let me know that he’s on the verge of breaking out.
with nellie you never know, but i dont see how randolph hasn’t established himself ahead of wright as the team’s starting PF, even if he progresses a bit. the warriors are going to have an eventful offseason, so we’ll have to wait and see
beasley certainly can hit the three, but the heat have so many specialists that he was down in the pecking order this season. i think next season they’ll look to up his perimeter attempts – 41% as a rookie is no joke
would love to get one or more of TT, WilChan, and A-dolph next year. Tricky to know where to take them thou. Randolph could potentially be the best of the bunch if he wasn’t under Nellie.
yeah we’ve got a long offseason ahead of us, so a lot of what we’ll discuss will be moot… although that doesn’t make it less interesting to talk about it
I joined a keeper league where my team was essentially a rebuild. Had Randolph for the first half of the season then dropped him. That is not looking like a great decision, although I did make some moves which should help via free agency:
Chandler
M Gasol
C Lee
I also have the #1 and #2 picks for next years draft, any thoughts on who that should be? I know it is early and there is typically much written on rookies entering the year but wondering what your thoughts are today.
griffin and rubio and i don’t see that changing. both have the potential to be perennial all-stars, and are getting favorable comparisons to carlos boozer and steve nash, respectively
once the lottery is set, i will be doing an in-depth draft preview, by the way
thanks, love your work. look forward to the draft preview!
A-dolph? nice.
After the Jazz get knocked out, I’m interested in seeing whether Millsap managed to co-exist with Boozer and maintain fantasy relevance. Think he’ll retain value as a second center next year, assuming a healthy Boozer?
It will be hard for him not too, given how well he played in Bozzer’s absense
boozer is opting out, so you have to think that the jazz will let him walk and sign millsap (RFA) to a nice new contract to be their starting PF
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3777170
I think there’s a 0.01% chance Lebron leaves Cleveland for the Knicks. They’ve been the best team in the league this year, he loves the addition of Mo Williams, and you can tell the entire team has a great bond and love playing together.
They’ll have Ben Wallace’s $14 million contract off the books after next season. Illgauskas, Varejao, and Pavlovic also have expiring contracts.. So the Cavs will have plenty of money to spend and they’ll probably add a stud big man and whoever else Lebron wants.
He has it made in Cleveland. He’s in the prime of his career and the Cavs are getting better every year. So I’m guessing he won’t jeopardize that just so he can play at MSG…
i keep hearing these pundits say that playing in MSG would allow him to become a ‘true global icon’ or something of the sort… as if he isn’t one already. it’s foolishness to me
Yeah that’s dumb. It’s not 1970… Anyone who has the internet or follows sports knows who Lebron is. He’s basically the face of the NBA, or atleast he’s in the process of replacing Kobe.
Winning a gold in China did more to make him a global icon than playing in MSG.
Unless the Knicks bring in a bunch of studs THIS off-season to show Lebron that they’ll be ready to win in 2010, he won’t be leaving.
Personally i dont believe all the hype, but Lebron was put off by how much attention Kobe got in China compared to him.
You’re just making stuff up now. Lebron wasn’t “put off” by the attention Kobe got. Lebron got more than enough of his own attention. The whole team did, they had to be escorted everywhere they went. So once again, I have no clue what you’re talking about and where you get your info from.
Kobe has been a superstar for 10 years now, 3 or 4 NBA Titles. Lebron has been around for 5 years, 0 titles. So of course Kobe is going to be more popular world-wide. Lebron knows that, and that definitely wouldn’t cause him to go to the Knicks.
I can’t attest to LeBron personally being “put off” by the Kobe attention, but KB is vastly more popular overseas and received much more attention than LeBron or just about anyone there.
I think LeBron recognizes that he can be the kind of marketing phenomenon Michael was and he doesn’t need New York to do it, he just needs a venue that gives him a chance to show off his ability to win and be exciting doing it. Cleveland is giving him the teammates to compete right now, and a coaching staff that is giving him loose reins, plus the fact that the Cavs have money available two years down the road. As a hometown hero, LeBron is a superhero RIGHT NOW. Leaving for another city gives him a bit of a mercenary flavor.
Michael didn’t leave Chicago to go to New York or Los Angeles for the brightest lights, nor did he go to Boston or Detroit to win. He stayed and helped make his team the winners and part of his legend is his association with Chicago. Becoming some kind of postscript player-coach with the Wizards is irrelevant because Mike wasn’t Air Jordan anymore and his prime was way in the past. That is probably on Jerry Krause for forcing MJ out more than anything else.
I suppose I am saying LeBron can be every big on the national and international stage as MJ ever was simply by staying in Cleveland and winning there and I think it is his smartest play and probably where his heart is as well.
Bottom line, LeBron doesn’t follow the money to where the winning is, other players will follow the money to where LeBron is! Load, cock, fire.
You would have to imagine that other players will follow Lebron to whatever city he chooses, given how incredible he is? With the cap space discussed above, I think Cleveland could land enough intriguing players to keep him in Cleveland. Unfortunately, only one person knows the real answer, and that’s Lebron.
Matt.. Random question.
Why is it the least bit important who Kiper and McShay have in their mock drafts?? Why do they spend so much time trying to predict the draft? Will the NFL give them $1 million if they accurately predict the 1st round? If not, why do they think they’re doing anything important?? I man, we’ll just see tomorrow when the ACTUAL draft happens.
I understand that it’s fun to see a couple mock drafts just to get a feel for the draft. But for the last few weeks, Kiper and McShay have been on SportsCenter every night arguing over whose mock draft is more accurate. It’s so pointless, right? Am I missing something?
People love football and also like to debate and speculate on where these players will go. It’s not much different than us debating and speculating about NBA players and teams during the off-season and player’s fantasy prospects for next year after the regular season.
I do agree that ESPN has gotten out of hand the last couple of years with their pre-draft coverage (hardly surprising though since their network airs 2 full days of draft coverage). They really bombard the viewer with Kiper segments and now this Todd McShay, who they must hope will someday replace Mel. It’s all just hype though to ensure good ratings this weekend. I used to really follow the mock drafts on the web but then I came to the same realization as you that it’s a waste of time – just wait for the real thing.
yeah the overkill on the NFL draft has certainly increased in recent seasons, and i agree that this season seems like it’s exponential. football technically has the largest audience, but there is such a thing as over-saturation
Hey buser,
First off great work.
I’m in a keeper-auction league that keeps 7 players.
I plan on keeping:
Andrew Bynum $25
Yao Ming $14
Jason Kidd $9
Devin Harris $1 (the biggest steal)
Jeff Green $1
who should i keep with the last 2 slots?
Mehmet Okur $4
Andrea Bargnani $1
Wilson Chandler $1
Nate Robinson (if he stays with the Knicks) $1
Anthony Randolph $1
what are the league settings? to be honest, i doubt i’d be keeping green over just about any of those other options
9-cat Roto
19 players – 7 keepers
PG-SG-G-G-SF-PF-F-F-C-C-UTL
cap space: $260
I’m trying to have a ton of cap space because
LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Bosh, Parker, Nash, Boozer, Joe Johnson are all free agents this summer
oh and 100 games per position
so depth is very important
$25 for Bynum seems very high compared to your other options. I’d probably take Bargnani for $1 over him, and put the change towards a bonafide stud or 2, of which there are a few on your free agent list. You have a nice $1 value menu there. Save you cash and get yourself a BronBron.
My seven: Yao, Harris, Bargiani, Chandler, and 3 from Kidd, Nate, Randolph, Okur, Green- depending on what happens in the offseason; Kidd, Okur, Nate cud all be on the move and GSWs are a mystery at mo.
given the cap/FA situation, loading up on those $1 options makes a ton of sense. yao, okur, harris, bargnani, chandler, randolph, and nate if he stays, kidd if he doesn’t. either $23 or $32 and you are set up *beautifully*
Buser,
Whats your take on rubio? He is young but already has great experience. He seems like a stud. Do you think he will be able to play enough defense to stay on the court?
it will be interesting to see where he ends up. there’s a pretty good chance he won’t start year 1 regardless, but yes he’ll stay on the court once he gets there
Hi Matt.. Just wanted to say that I think Tyrus and Murphy should be on the poll instead of Boozer and Biedrins.. And Mo Williams should be the next guy to join.
I’m also really starting to like Thad Young. It’s too bad Brand will be back next year. They must be regretting that big time. What are they going to do with him? They still have him for 4 more years and it appears he ruins that teams chemistry. Are they stuck with him or do you think they’ll find a way to unload him?
yeah i think we’re at a point where i’ll expand to more options. the current poll is tight…
heh i don’t think brand ‘ruins the team chemistry’. obviously it was a struggle for a starting 5 that included him to mesh, but they were a .500 with him and without him and happened to get some lucky wins so far against the magic. they are ‘stuck’ with him for at least another year anyway, as nobody will trade for him before they see him get a full season under his belt. it will be interesting to see what the sixers do at PG
Just wanted to say i went to the Nugs Hornets game Monday. As a nuggets fan i’m glad we won, but jeez what an awful display of playoff basketball. Shameful by the hornets.
Bring on Dallas, we got there number.
hornets are a mess. the nugs have the personnel to effectively deal with david west, meaning that paul needs to go for 45/20 to keep them in a game. the posey signing certainly was a ‘good idea’, but they have so little depth it’s laughable (sean marks?). tyson chandler has 15 points and 17 fouls in the series – it seems that team mgmt knew they weren’t built for any success that mattered when they tried to deal him at the deadline
dallas is playing good ball. that should be a very interesting series
I just can’t believe the let Pargo go. He was the only one on the roster that could create besides Paul. Once paul sits they have 4 3pt shooter (Peja, Butler, Mo Pete, Posey) a Pf that needs to be feed and a non-offensive Center. The should have not spent the money on Posey resigned Pargo and got frontcourt depth.
Hey Buser,
I know it’s a bit early but could you put something up on Free agents and restricted free agents? Maybe possible destinations and cap room of teams? Probably a little premature. i guess should wait to see post draft and playoffs.
i actually have the list of FAs compiled, but hadn’t started getting into commentary yet, in part because it is fairly early. maybe i’ll post it up just for information’s sake