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Here’s a breakdown of potential notable free agents for the coming off-season. It’s early, but I’ve also tried to nail down some of the possible outcomes for the names with some level of fantasy relevance. But before we get to the players, let’s break down team salary situations versus the cap, which we can safely assume will be just over $60 million next season. Here are team totals based on HoopsHype salary information – keep in mind that I haven’t triple-checked their info, so I can’t speak to the complete validity of all these numbers. Team commitments to players for the 2009/10 season are listed, with player options assumed to be exercised and team options assumed to be declined.
Under the cap: Detroit (33.1), Memphis (34.2), Atlanta (40.9), Oklahoma City (41.8), Toronto (45.8), New Jersey (50.4), Portland (50.6), Minnesota (50.8), Sacramento (51.9), Charlotte (56.6), LA Clippers (56.7), Philadelphia (57.2), Indiana (57.8), and Golden State (59.3)
Over the cap: New Orleans (76.5), Washington (75.9), LA Lakers (74.1), Boston (72.4), Cleveland (71.9), Utah (71.2), Orlando (70.6), New York (69.9), Miami (69.6), Dallas (68.8), San Antonio (66.0), Houston (65.0), Milwaukee (64.7), Denver (63.2), Chicago (63.0), and Phoenix (62.3)
Legend: ETO = early termination option, PO = player option, TO = team option, R = restricted free agent, UR = unrestricted free agent
• Chris Andersen (UR) – this guy loves playing in Denver and the feeling is mutual. He’ll have some suitors, but give the Nuggets the edge – he’s a good candidate for their mid-level exception.
• Trevor Ariza (UR) – Ariza is only 23 and should be one of the more sought-after players on the market, and the Lakers are already well over the cap for next season. I can see Toronto, New Jersey, and Minnesota being very interested.
• Ron Artest (UR) – things have worked out pretty well for Artest in Houston, particularly with Tracy McGrady on the shelf. But, the Rockets have no cap room and won’t be able to match a substantive offer from another team. Two questions: will someone else take a chance on Artest, and how much do the Rockets wish T-Mac’s $20 million salary (plus) was coming off the books this off-season as opposed to next?
• Mike Bibby (UR) – Bibby had an up-and-down season statistically but provided needed leadership for the young Hawks and played a big part in their success while Acie Law, the team’s “PG of the future”, played 300 fewer minutes this season than he did as a rookie. Expect the Hawks to be very interested in retaining his services and for the feeling to be mutual.
• Carlos Boozer (PO) – Boozer has been saying for some time now that he plans to opt out of the final year of his contract ($12.7M) because he’ll be “due for a raise” even if he re-signs with the Jazz. Of course, playing fewer than 40 games for the second time in four years isn’t likely to help his market value. This one could go either way: he’s been known to go back on his word before (doh!), but he’s proven himself as a consistent double-double when he’s healthy, something that any team covets. Utah is likely to want to shed his salary and pay Paul Millsap less for comparable production. A sign-and-trade might be a best-case scenario for all parties involved; regardless, Boozer manning the post for the Pistons makes plenty of sense.
• Kobe Bryant (ETO) – it’s likely that Kobe returns to the Lakers next season.
• Josh Childress (R) – Childress can opt out of the remaining two years of his deal with Olympiacos and, if he were to do so, the Hawks would own his rights as a restricted free agent.
• Jamal Crawford (ETO) – by now, you know that Don Nelson told Crawford well before the season ended that he’s not in the team’s long-term plans and that he should opt out or prepare to be traded. I see Crawford pursuing that second option, given the current economic climate, as opposed to opting out of $20M over the next two seasons to find out what the market will pay him. I don’t see a huge demand elsewhere for his services at that price – nor do I see him wanting to do Nellie any favors – so this should get even more interesting/ugly.
• Marquis Daniels (TO) – this one could go either way. He’s useful to the team, especially with Mike Dunleavy being a huge question mark for most of 2009/10, but he’s not exactly cheap ($7.4), Brandon Rush will be the starter, and re-signing Jarrett Jack will be a much higher priority. Daniels will land on his feet elsewhere (albeit with a paycut) if the Pacers decline his option.
• Raymond Felton (R) – Felton surprised a number of people – including Larry Brown – with strong play and held off D.J. Augustin all year. Augustin certainly showed that he can play and I do expect the Bobcats to end up with Allen Iverson, however, so it’s possible we see Felton involved in a sign-and-trade. There aren’t a lot of young point guards on the market, so there should be a number of teams interested.
• Ben Gordon (UR) – the Bulls are already over the cap, so re-signing Gordon isn’t a no-brainer. He’s helped his stock with a gutty performance against the Celtics, as much as a proven 20-point scorer’s stock needs help. It’s likely that the Bulls try to get him back in the fold and concentrate on moving their major expiring contracts (Brad Miller $12.3M, Tim Thomas $6.5M) to ease their cap situation.
• Al Harrington (PO) – there’s no plausible scenario where Harrington makes more than $10 million elsewhere next season (or beyond), so he’s not going anywhere.
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas (ETO) – Big Z is due $11.5 million next season and will be in Cleveland until he retires.
• Allen Iverson (UR) – this is my stock statement regarding AI: the only coach I see him comfortable playing for is Larry Brown, and Brown is the only coach that I can see being willing to bring him aboard. It just seems inevitable.
• Jarrett Jack (R) – I don’t think any team will value Jack as much as the Pacers, so they’ll do what it takes to keep him on their roster.
• David Lee (R) – there’s almost no way to tell which way the Knicks are going to go here. As of now, they have just four contracts on the books for 2010/11 (two player options, two team options) and it’s no secret that they want to keep as much cap space as possible open for next off-season. David Lee is just the kind of player that they’d want to surround a potential big-time free agent (or two) with, but they may see giving him close to an eight-figure salary as too risky to their grand ambitions. From a fantasy perspective, Lee would be solid as a starter just about anywhere – clearly, playing in the D’Antoni system is ideal.
• Shawn Marion (UR) – The shine is off of Marion’s star, both in fantasy and real life. He’ll be 31 this off-season and much of his previous success has to be directly tied to the friendly Suns system in which he spend his prime seasons. He’s still a solid and versatile player, but teams aren’t going to over-extend themselves to bring him aboard. Marion has said he wants to play for a winner, but to do that he’ll have to take a massive pay cut. Extenuating circumstances for both parties could mean that he re-ups with the Raptors.
• Andre Miller (UR) – The 33-year-old Miller has been a steadying influence for the 76ers, continuing a career-long trend. I could see a team like Minnesota looking for help at the helm of their young roster, but there aren’t a lot of plausible scenarios that involve Miller not staying on in Philly. Louis Williams can score the ball, but is anyone ready to call him a starting point guard?
• Paul Millsap (R) – Millsap’s fate could largely depend on Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, who are looking at player options totaling $22 million between the two of them. If neither players opt out, the Jazz may not be able to match the best of what figures to be a number of offers to make Millsap a starting power forward. Count on the Pistons (among others) closely monitoring the developments surrounding all three of the Jazz’s big men.
• Jamario Moon (R) – Moon has said that Miami fits him “perfectly” and that his priority is to re-sign with the team.
• Jermaine O’Neal (PO) – He’s not going to opt out of a final year that will pay him $23 million, so expect O’Neal to make his run at a new contract next season with the Heat.
• Lamar Odom (UR) – the level of postseason success that the Lakers are able to achieve this season could determine Odom’s fate. If the team does not win the championship, they may push their payroll into the stratosphere by using the Larry Bird exception to get Odom back in the fold for another run. If they do end up as the last team standing, all involved parties will be much more comfortable parting ways.
• Mehmet Okur (ETO) – regardless of who is playing power forward for the Jazz next season, there’s a pretty good chance that they want Okur as his frontcourt mate, and the feeling is mutual.
• Anthony Parker (UR) – Parker has already been declared a reserve if he were to return to the team, so expect the versatile veteran to explore any and all of his options.
• Nate Robinson (R) – much of what was said about David Lee can be said about Robinson. The Knicks are banking on a huge off-season a year from now, but risk lots of negative PR if they allow Robinson to walk, particularly if he doesn’t get big-time offers from any other teams. Nate’s fantasy prospects take a fairly substantial hit if he does end up somewhere other than New York.
• Ramon Sessions (R) – Even Charlie Villanueva thinks re-signing Sessions should be the team’s priority. Crazier things have happened, though, and the 23-year-old Sessions should get serious offers from a number of teams. What is certain is that both Sessions and Charlie V don’t fit in the Bucks’ plans financially without a trade that involves shedding some other salary (like Richard Jefferson, who probably isn’t going to generate much interest).
• Hedo Turkoglu (ETO) – although he regressed a bit this season, Hedo could command a bit more than the $7.3 million he’s due next season on the open market. He’s said he’ll opt out if only because it makes sense for his family to get more guaranteed money, and it’s hard to fault him for that. It’s likely that the Magic want to keep their core intact for at least another season, but Rashard Lewis’ contract puts them in a bind and looks more ridiculous by the day (roughly $21M per for the next four seasons).
• Anderson Varejao (PO) – this is a situation worth watching. Varejao held out the entire 2007-08 preseason to sign his current deal and his player option is for $6.2 million. It makes sense to want to remain LeBron James’ teammate, but the 26-year-old may also feel the urge to test free agent waters, and most of the teams with significant cap space could use his skill-set. The team’s level of success in the current postseason should also factor in his decision.
• Charlie Villanueva (R) – as previously mentioned, it should surprise noone if Ramon Sessions is ahead of Charlie V on the Bucks’ list of priorities. It’s hard to guage the market for this talented but enigmatic forward, but there certainly will be some interest. This is another case where a sign-and-trade probably makes sense for all parties involved.
• Rasheed Wallace (UR) – Sheed will turn 35 before the 2009-10 season begins, and it’s unlikely that he’ll be inundated with substantial offers in this economy. Here’s what makes the most sense to me: Sheed signs with the Spurs as their mid-level exception (~$6M) and makes one last run at the big prize with their terrific trio before they tear it down, just like the Pistons. Can you come up with something that is more win-win than that?
• Marvin Williams (R) – Williams has yet to show much to warrant his 2005 draft position (No.2 overall), but he’s still only 22 years old. Given the tight financial picture around the league, I don’t see a team stretching the budget to sign Williams – expect him to sign a qualifying offer with the Hawks and look for bigger money next offseason.
Others of note: Matt Barnes (UR), Brandon Bass (UR), Will Bynum (TO), Rodney Carney (UR), Eddy Curry (ETO), Ricky Davis (PO), Michael Finley (PO), Channing Frye (R), Drew Gooden (UR), Marcin Gortat (UR), Gerald Green (UR), Grant Hill (UR), Luther Head (UR), Dahntay Jones (UR), Fred Jones (UR), Linas Kleiza (R), Kyle Korver (ETO), Stephon Marbury (UR), Rashad McCants (R), Antonio McDyess (UR), Flip Murray (UR), Steve Novak (R), Leon Powe (R), Quentin Richardson (ETO), Kareem Rush (UR), James Singleton (UR), Ime Udoka (UR), Von Wafer (UR), Hakim Warrick (R), C.J. Watson (R), Chris Wilcox (UR)
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actually the latest on boozer is that he wants to stay in utah:
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/ci_12250955
yeah i know what he’s been saying since the jazz got eliminated. if he doesn’t opt out, i’m fairly certain they will try to trade him
Boozer is also going through what could be a very messy (and costly!) divorce.
I think he’s worn out the last of his goodwill with the Jazz fans and more importantly with Sloan.
The Miller family has always been reluctant to go over the salary cap and there’s no reason why they’d make an exception for this guy. Millsap is a far bigger priority.
good insight there. what are your thoughts on okur?
Look for Mehmet to take on more of the scoring, less of the rebounding. His splits after the Boozer injury:
Dec: 17.7ppg, 9.6 reb
Jan: 18.5, 8.5
Feb: 21, 7.6
Mar: 14.4, 6.5 (Boozer’s return)
Makes enough sense, Millsap is still a little raw in the post and works the glass hard. I like Okur next season, he’s coming off a career shooting year and is in his prime, not to mention he never misses many games.
The only insight I have here is being from Utah, but I think Okur will definitely be a priority once Boozer goes. Boozer hasn’t been saying he won’t opt out, just that when he does opt out he hopes the jazz re-sign him. Which is unlikely to happen, and feels like lip service.
also sessions looks like he’s on the way out — bucks management is already looking ahead to the draft for a PG. it also wouldn’t surprise me if the lakers make ariza more of a priority than odom this offseason.
mind sharing a source for that bucks info? and yeah i don’t disagree on ariza/odom, but the market will probably make it impossible for them to keep ariza
There was an article about the draft this morning that talked about the deep PGs in this years draft. Which could imply that the Bucks don’t intend to resign Sessions or intend to trade Ridnour. I think Sessions is legit and would be sad to see him go, but I also trust John Hammond more than any recent GM in Bucks history so I’ll trust him to decide what’s best.
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/44032802.html
This list is awesome, thanks! I would LOVE Ariza here in TO, and I bet Colangelo would too. What do you think he’ll command? Would a Marion/Parker – Odom/Ariza trade make any sense for the lakers?
will be interesting to see what happens in Laker-land after they loose in the Finals…again…
Sheed to the Spurs?!?!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
OK, all kidding aside – that would be a decent option for both parties – it might even help Wallace curb that spritely temper of his.
Problem is what everyone saw in the playoffs – the Spurts are getting too old (overall) to keep pace in the West.
I would like to see them try and keep Gooden and work him in as a fourth option, but it’s probably not going to happen. They’ll probably let some of the older players leave for greener pastures. What they need to invest in is YOUNG “clutch” 3pt shooters. Bonner’s a great shooter and all, but I think even Steve Kerr at his CURRENT AGE could have come in and made some of those 3′s the Spurs so desperately needed. HOPEFULLY, Manu comes back healthy – Parker has proven he can be a strong option, and Duncan still has at least two good years left in him. They need a strong sixth man or that elusive fourth double digit scorer (12-14 pts. per) to get back in the West.
But really, Buser…Sheed to the Spurs???
Does it sound like I’m gripping yet?
Keep in mind that the Cavs could be a possible location for ‘Sheed as well.
With Varejao reportedly opting out to test the market, again, and with Sczerbiak, Smith, and Lorenzen Wrights contracts coming off the books, those guys coupled with Ben Wallace’s fragile frame make ‘Sheed and his desire to play for a contender a good fit.
There were rumors that ‘Sheed had asked for a buyout before the season started and that Detroit denied that request in part that they thought he might begin talks with the Cavaliers.
Yeah! Cleveland Rocks!
Go Cavs!!!
yep, really the cavs make as much sense as the spurs for that MLE
This is fine speculation as far as speculation goes mr. buser – but even better than the tarot cards is the fact that a community is being built here for bball junkies removed from fantasy bball, so major props there.
As far as AI -I hope your “stock statement” is correct, I think that’s a team with the pieces in place to rival the 2001 sixers team that went to the finals – the only difference being AI plays a backseat, and an even more unified team approach emerges. If you squint your eyes (i mean really squint them) Okafor is Mutombo, Wallace/Diaw is McKie/Ratliff with offense, and Larry Brown is a contender again – but they need Augustin for the aging AI. Interesting team if it goes down.
I agree – you have to squint realllly hard…;)
Seriously, though you may have valid points on everything but one – I don’t think AI is a “backseat” kind of guy. Yes, his role over the last couple of years has diminished, in part because of ability due to injury. But with the exception of his first few seasons, his attitude has seemed to grow along with his abilities. Simply put, he wants to be the man on the team.
Now I could be wrong, but I would see Larry Brown bringing in AI to cement the team, not be one of the supporting players bringing “veteran” experience. And as much as we may feel he’s gone by the way side, my gut tells me AI would blow up on a team like Charlotte’s where there really is no star power to speak of. I wouldn’t say MVP type numbers, but at least where he was before his “vacation” in Detroit (sorry Pistons fan!).
Remember, he was ranked 14th overall to start the season (fantasy-wise that is), and being that he really didn’t do anything this year, I’d bet good money (if I had any!) that he’ll make a strong showing in Charlotte…IF he wants to be a Bobcat. Yes, he’ll play for Larry Brown – but does he want to be there? That’s the real question.
If the Bobcats are smart (ah-hem) they’ll stay well away from AI. Like Larry Brown said, if they had the current roster the whole year, they would likely have been in the playoffs. All I can see Iverson doing is destroying any team chemistry they may have built. If he still wants to be the man, then what would be best for everyone is if he buggers off to Greece or somewhere. Lay back by the Med, drop a few oozo’s and let the Europeans adore you for a couple years before hanging up your boots. Not a bad way to go out. Having said that, if anyone would sign this guy, its MJ.
Yeah! MJ Rocks!
Go Bobcats!!!
you forgot to mention cb4
last i heard is if he doesn’t sign an extension in the off season
look for him to be traded?
Bosh is signed through next season for $15.8M then has a player option for ’10-’11, so he doesn’t fit the criteria for this post.
yeah technically he’s not a FA, so that’s why no mention. but you are correct in that, if he declines to sign an extension with the raptors, they are likely to look to move him
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-raptors-colangelo&prov=ap&type=lgns
On a related note, check out this post on contract year players and production: http://awickedjumpshot.blogspot.com/2009/04/its-gonna-take-money.html
I’ve heard rumors that Mark Cuban really, really wants CP3.
Cuban said he would be willing to take the Hornets’ 2 largest contracts in the deal to give them some cap relief. I’m guessing he would give them Barea, draft picks, and whoever else.
Please tell me there’s atleast a slight chance of this happening. I would love to see Chris Paul in Dallas, it would nice to see him play with a lot of talent around him.
So any chance? Is New Orleans desperate enough for cap relief to trade the top PG in the NBA?
as much as i’m with you in that i want to see paul on a talented team, there’s just no way they would trade him. the arena would burn to the ground within a matter of hours, and they know it
Putting aside the mob violence which would ensue if such a trade happened, the fact of the matter is that NBA trading rules wouldn’t allow for such a deal. The way I understand it, if Cuban were to take on the Hornets 2 largest contracts, he’d have to give up HIS 2 largest contracts (Nowitzki and Kidd? Howard? Terry? I’m not sure which is the second highest paid for the Mavs).
I know Cuban has the money to bend the rules a bit, and I’m SURE he wouldn’t mind paying whatever penalties would take him over the salary cap. But I don’t think he could bend the rules that much.
Although, I will say that a precedent has been set here – Gasol went to LA for nothing, the Celts managed to swing Garnett AND Ray Allen (if memory serves me correctly). So that doesn’t rule out entirely the possibility.
But being a Spurs homer, you know I’ll be pulling out the stops to hope that it doesn’t – here’s to you Jobu!
Lakers robbed the Grizzlies in the Gasol trade.. But the Celtics gave up Jefferson and a ton more for KG and they gave up at least Jeff Green and possibly more for Ray Allen.
But anyways, back to CP3.. I’m kinda confused about what you were saying. Why would the Mavs HAVE to trade their two largest contracts to the Hornets? To my knowledge, that’s not mandatory. If Cuban wants to eat Peja and Chandler’s disgusting contracts, he can. He wouldn’t have to give $28 million worth of contracts back to the Hornets to make it balance.
The Mavs had $92 million on the books this season, and it’d be about the same next year for them if Cuban could pull of that deal. So I don’t think he’d mind.
But I know it’s not likely, I’ll just keep my fingers crossed that CP3 goes Jay Cutler on them and forces a trade.
Shin relies on the Hornets for his income. If he let Paul go, the Hornets would sell about 153 tickets all year. Assuming Shin likes to eat, this would have to be among the most unlikely trades in the league.
ashley, since the mavs are over the cap, they can’t just take on as much salary as they like via trade. to acquire $28M in salary, they’d have to give up at least $22.32M
“Teams above the cap (or teams below the cap but would end up more than $100,000 over the cap following a trade) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit — teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap#Trading_and_the_Salary_Cap
That’s it precisely – thanks Buser for the back up.
And yes, the Lakers did rob the Grizzlies – thing is, they did it according to that rule which Buser quoted. Nobody said it was a “smart” deal in terms of talent, it just worked out that way in the books because the Grizz didn’t have much in the way of big time contracts. Some seem to believe there was some collusion there with Jerry West and the Lakers owner Jerry Buss, but that’s a debate for another post.
So the rules are there to be bent, manipulated, whatever you want to call it. I just don’t think Cuban could (or would) try to bend them enough to make that type of deal happen.
Now, if CP3 goes on to become a free agent, and Dallas can convince him to sign for whatever it can afford, that’s a different story. Which is why the whole “LeBron to New York” thing is getting ready to amp up in 2010. NY wants to be as low in the cap as they can be so they can offer LJ the biggest NBA deal possible.
Can’t wait to see how THAT pans out!
NO is in a terrible situation and paying way too much for Mo Pete and Posey. Not to mention they still have Peja for two more seasons after this.
And Paul can’t become a free agent until ’12-’13. The real question is if he’ll force a trade. Chandler is near guaranteed to reup on his player option, so he and Peja come off the books (for $27 mil) right when they’ll be looking to extend CP3. Some smart drafting, not throwing your MLE at journeyman wings at every opportunity, and a big FA signing could keep him.
Makes sense. Plus, I still agree with Buser’s original point – that deal doesn’t happen without Hornets fan grabbing their torches and pitchforks.
After that embarrassing 1st round exit hornets fans are already lighting up the torches. Losing by 58 at home is unacceptable.
I think that with the economy as it is, far fewer players than normal will opt out of their contracts because a lot of teams simply can’t afford to pay them more, regardless of the salary cap. It could be a quieter off-season than anyone expects. Stability could be the keyword.
not a ton of ETO’s, but you definitely make a fair point. there’s a decent crop of players, but money is going to be tight
Andre Miller would be a good fit in Portland, as they clearly need a real vet PG that can play in the post-season. they probably have enough room to pay him for 2 years since they have lafrenz contract coming off the books this season, and dmiles’ contract next year. With a solid offensive and defensive PG like Miller, they might jump to another level next year.
Yeah, either Miller or Bibby would work in Portland. Blake has had a lot more pro success than I ever thought he would but the Blazers need something more and a veteran PG that can still play at a high level makes sense.
It may also be wise for Portland to look into acquiring Felton. Ultimately, Augustin is Brown’s guy and he may just be foolish enough to bring Iverson into the fold too. If this happens, Felton would seem be the odd man out.
i don’t like bibby there, since he is more of a shooting type PG than miller. miller looks to score when the defense gives it to him, but is primarily looking to get the scorers the ball in good position.
i admit i haven’t seen much of felton, so i can’t really offer much on him, though i think he has been a bit injury prone and doesn’t offer the same playoff experience as miller…
The Blazers need another shooting threat so Roy can’t be triple teamed at the end of games, rudy just isn’t enough and outlaw is good but he doesn’t scare anybody.
I love Miller’s game, but I don’t think he would be a good fit for Portland because he can’t shoot threes. Blake is a lesser talent, but he helps spread the floor and give Roy and Aldridge a solid shooter to kick it out to. Bibby might actually be work because Roy likes to handle the ball and create, so Bibby’s shoot-first ways wouldn’t be such a problem.
I’m really interested to see where Sessions ends up. The guy could really blow-up in the right system and without a coach like Skiles jerking around his minutes and positions (the guy is a PG, not a SG).
Is there any way that he ends up in NY? Duhon is clearly a back-up PG and Robinson is more of a combo guard (and that’s if they even re-sign him). This plan to entice Lebron to NY with an empty roster is ridculous. They clearly need another, more talented PG and Sessions can probably be had for a semi-reasonable price that Milwaukee may not be able to match.
The major issue I see with that is the fact New York isn’t freeing up money until 2010. With the cap shrinking next season, a payroll of almost $70 million in guaranteed contracts, and extensions for Lee and Robinson looming, I don’t see it happening.
Duhon was serviceable and it’s hard to blame him for breaking down at the end after playing 38+ minutes a night. While Sessions may be better (and younger), he’s not a good pair with LeBron. The fact that he lacks the ability to stretch the floor with an outside shot is fairly glaring.
Sessions, to me, would have been ideal for Sac if it wasn’t for that ridiculous Beno Udrih extension. If Philly let Miller walk Sessions could fit there as well, although they also lack perimeter shooters. Atlanta could let Bibby go and run with Ramon, too. Depends on the market, I s’pose.
Yeah, I don’t see this deal happening either.
Sessions is really in between a rock and a hard place here – great player who could blow up in a running system, but no place to blow up in.
It’s possible a trade COULD happen to NY, but they’re trying to play very careful and come in low on the cap. It’s not the empty roster they want to entice LJ with – it’s all those open dollars that come along with it ($$$$$$$). And even then, there’s still no guarantee that James will go to NY – the Cavs front office guys are former Spurs guys, and if there’s anything they’ve learned from working in that organization, it’s 1. Loyalty and 2. Take care of your big time players (otherwise, Tim Duncan’s playing for the Magic right about now).
Sorry Knicks fan, but you’ll have to suffer through 09-10.
But on the bright side – you may get a lottery pick to go along with your new “King James” gear!
I forgot to mention, can’t they pull a sign and trade if necessary?
If you’re talking NY doing a sign and trade to GET Sessions, then my only question would be why? You said it yourself – James and Sessions wouldn’t compliment each other well (assuming they get James next off season). Other than being able to run in the “run and gun” system D’Antoni uses, Sessions doesn’t bring anything else to NY.
Now if you’re talking the Bucks doing a sign and trade to one of the other teams you mentioned, I don’t know – it’s hard to say what the Bucks will do. One things certain though – if they keep Sessions, someone else is going to get dealt. OR they’ll let Charlie V. sign with someone else (or both!). The latter would actually be the worse move they could make considering they pushed him into the starting lineup this year and he responded.
Next year’s Knicks pick goes to the Jazz (via Gugliotta trade with Phoenix and their Marbury trade with the Knicks.) I hope you’re right.
i don’t think lebron is going to go to NY in 2010. he will likely win the championship this year, so i don’t see what incentive he has to go to NY. sure he is a yankees fan, but i don’t think he will leave what is essentially his hometown team after he wins a title. NY should be planning to re-build their roster, but not planning on doing so around lebron…
my prediction the whole time has been that james is a cav for his entire career, or at least well through his prime years
I think it’ll be Lakers over Cavs this year. Lakers seem to have the Cavs’ number and are the only team to get a legit win over the Cavs at home this season. The Cavs have a lot of dead weight that will be gone over the next couple years and I’m sure they’ll go out and get another stud or two for Lebron and once they do, they’ll have an amazing team and should win a few championships.
I’m sure the Knicks go all out in an attempt to lure Lebron to NY, but hopefully he stays in Cleveland. Lebron talks a lot about the bad luck Cleveland sports teams have had and it seems like one of his goals is to give Cleveland fans an elite team for the next decade.
I reackon the Cavs, for pretty much the same reasons The C’s won last year. Just like the 08 C’s, this years Cavs have the lock down D, the scarry home court advantage, and the team spirit. Also, the Lakers dont seem to be any different from last year- no mental toughness and a lack of togetherness. If there is one thing that Id say gives LBJ the edge in the LeBron/Kobe debate, its that he seems to have real leadership; he brings his team together as a unit. Kobe just seems to glare and snipe and make his team mates feel nervous and self concious.
I’ll admit that im a diehard C’s fan, so there may be some bias here, but honestly, I watched every one of their playoff games last year and the only team that scared me on the title run was Cleaveland. And they are clearly much better this year.
from a chemistry standpoint, this is as finely-tuned an NBA team as we’ve seen in some time
No Nuggets Love?
They are playing great D right now have have more then enough weapons to compete. Lakers size will be a problem but I think the Nugs are being underestimated. They have a +20 pt per game margin right now in the Playoffs.
I live in Denver and wouldn’t say the Nuggets are known for their strong team chemistry.
They are gellin right now firing on all cylinders. Obviously, the Lakers size is a big problem because Denver lives in the paint (same reason why Dallas has no chance, they can’t defend the paint with a hobbled dampier, an under-sized bass, and a awful plyer (hollins)). Still, though with chauncey at the helm it looks like a whole new club
Denver in my opinion is too much of an X-factor right now – if they keep playing this well, they’re good – scary good! But if a team manages to lock them up offensively, the potential is there for melt-down city! It’s happened before, and until they can prove to me that they can handle the stress of competing on the playoff level, it could happen again. But they’re strong play of late does play in there favor, and teams have “ridden the wave” before.
Otherwise, I’m pulling for the Cavs now that my team is out. I think they have the best chance of beating anyone in the West, especially if they keep up their home streak.
As far as LeBron goes, I had a whole essay on this ready to post the other night before I decided against it (apparently, I like to talk, and I like to type).
In a nutshell, LJ goes nowhere in 2010 for several reasons:
1. Loyalty – He’s a class act, and I’m sure he’s seen the lengths to which the front office has gone to build a solid team around him – not to just make him the star, but to put together players who compliment his game.
2. Smarts – Mike Brown and Danny Ferry are former Spurs guys (I just had to get that in there – again!), and if there’s anything they learned here in SA, it’s that you take care of your franchise guy. Like I said once before, if Coach Pop and Peter Holt didn’t make the moves they made a few years back, Duncan’s playing for the Magic right now (and a game up on the C’s, ouch!). I don’t see Brown and Ferry dropping the ball on this one.
3. LJ’s Commitment – I read an article earlier which talked about how LJ started working a few days after they were ousted buy Boston last year. He worked hard, not only developing his body physically, but also developing his game – finishing with the left hand at the rim, and working on his jump shots. And it’s paid off in how the level of his game has grown (doesn’t hurt to win MVP, either).
If they win it all this year, he might still go to NY in 2010 – but I think he’ll be committed to building his legacy in Cleveland. After all, MJ did it in Chicago. And nobody talks about the “great” Chicago teams of the 60′s, 70′s, and 80′s.
If the Cavs DON’T win, I think the chances are EVEN BETTER that LJ stays, for those same reasons.
So there’s my end of year theme on LeBron James, Professor Buser – my apple is in the mail.
How pissed would Lebron be if somehow Melo gets a ring this year?
Wade and Melo would have them before him he would be so determined next year probably avg a 33-8-10
As a Laker fan, the Nuggets scare me. If LA continues to mail in games (like they did tonight against the Rockets), Denver could pull off the upset (if Houston doesn’t beat them to it, although I highly doubt it). The Nuggets will punish you if you let them get ahead at all, and the Lakers have a frustrating penchant for sluggish starts and blowing leads.
So there’s some Denver love for ya. Also, you guys are lucky to have Birdman. He is so fun to watch (and productive, too).
Yeah, I feel for you Laker fan – I know what it’s like not having you team show up for a playoff game.
Maybe you, I, and Hornets fan need to start a support group.
Imaging that! Laker fan and Spurs fan in the same support group together! Talk about your sports irony!
I think one the most intriguing teams to watch this offseason is Chicago. We know Rose and Deng aren’t going anywhere, and it’s unlikely Noah, Tyrus, and Salmons’ combined 12.5 million are either. Tim Thomas and Miller are nice trade chips, but even nicer expiring contracts so I’d expect them to play out next season too if they aren’t dealt for a top 3 pick this year.
The Hinrich/Gordon debate is up for discussion though, they can’t keep both. Personally, I don’t think Gordon will accept a sixth man role again, especially for less money than he’ll probably get on the market (Toronto please), so letting him walk for nothing makes sense to me, they’re already paying Hinrich 9 million a year to backup Rose. I can see a team like Portland being interested in Hinrich at that salary, but the Bulls could have a real shot at a big name FA in 2010 if they dump Gordon, Miller and Tim Thomas. What do y’all think?
i’m sure they’ll try to find out if someone wants to make hinrich their starting PG. mike miller’s expiring deal would work straight up and i don’t hate it for minny, but not sure he makes sense for the bulls with gordon/deng/salmons around. regardless, they are going to be VERY active next offseason, with expiring deals and youngsters up for extentions. i can’t help but wonder what % of the team’s front office wants to trade deng
Seems like a moot point, since when has Paxson been willing to make a trade?
Any move involving Deng would be predicated on his injury plagued season, netting cents on the dollar. Wouldn’t a sign and trade with Utah involving Boozer make the most sense? Utah has needed a wing; the Bulls have been offensively miserable in the post.
I see Booz in Detroit or San Antonio.
Bulls should hope Bosh doesn’t re-sign and trade Miller, deng and a pick for him. Noah, Bosh, Salmons, Gordon/hinrich, rose with Tyrus bringing energy off the bench would be a great team. Imagine Rose and Bosh pick and rolls
honestly, i can’t see any team being interested in deng. not only is he overpaid at 12.5 million a year, but he has 5 years remaining on his deal, and he’s injury prone. he’s good, but not the francise player the bulls were hoping for. hinrich is a nice player too, but at 9 million a year, i think the bulls will be stuck with both of them for the long haul, and be forced to let gordon walk. dumping hinrich on portland or minny would be a genius move for paxson if he can pull it off, but i don’t think hinrich is that much better than blake at this point, and minny has a glut of guards, so i can’t see either team taking on the extra salary for hinrich’s mediocrity. granted, given starters minutes hinrich could prove to be worth it, but the bulls didn’t have the minutes to showcase him, so i think his value was capped.
I’d take Booz here in SA, especially if we we’re not able to keep Gooden.
Although I will say, if I had my choice between the two, it’d have to be Boozer. More production in scoring and rebounding.
They gotta make a move probably either sheed or booz
The problem with Chicago is that they have 1/3 of their cap tied up in Hinrich and Deng until the 11/12 season ends.
I know that Ben Gordon made some big shots against Boston in the playoffs, but I think Chicago would be making a mistake by resigning him, unless it was for a bargain. Not only would it contribute to their cap issues, but I think the guy does more harm than good for that team. BG is a ballhog and a chucker, and for every monster game he has, he’ll have two or three 30% performances. In the Boston series, there were so many instances when BG killed any semblance of ball movement and ruined possessions with his awful shot selection. Gordon’s overdribbling ways really seemed to frustrate Rose (the real future of the franchise) and undermined the young man’s leadership… I remember hearing Marc Jackson commenting that Rose needed to get the ball out of Gordon’s hands and take control of the situation. In addition, Gordon’s presence “forced” Vinny Del to play with that awful, defensively deficient small lineup and move Tyrus Thomas, only the team’s best shot blocker and most athletic big man, to the bench.
In my opinion, Paxson should let Gordon go and install versatile Salmons as starting SG. Keep Hinrich as sixth man, and the now-productive frontcourt of Thomas and Noah. This lineup won’t get them out of the first round, but if they can land a legit post player like Bosh (and continue Rose’s development), they will be in business.
But I’m no expert here, so I’m curious to hear what everyone else thinks.
I think you’re spot on with that analysis.
I agree with Gorden not being “good” for that team. Knowing Vinny, it must have driven him nuts!
Worst case, they let BG walk, DON’T manage to sign a good free agent, and start developing that young line up, all the while getting ready for 2010 where there’s going to be a SLEW of talent available on the market – it’s not just the LeBron James show from I understand!
The sports guys here in SA have the same sentiment towards the Spurs – we try to keep as many quality players as we can for next season, start working the books down(in terms of contract dollars), and get ready to spend in 2010.
The ball was usually in Rose’s hands, then he’d pass to Gordon and Gordon would do his job, if you want to change that job it’s a coaching problem.
Del Negro is one of the worst coaches in the NBA (almost as bad as Skiles), the Bulls never had any semblance of ball movement until Salmons and Miller got there and the team is like, “Oh, passing! Spacing! I wish someone would have taught us this before!”
So, you’re saying that one of the worst coaches in the NBA managed to guide his team through a seven game OT fest against the defending champion and ALMOST pulled off the upset?
I don’t know who should be more offended, Bulls fan or Celtic fan.
Except that defending champ was missing the best player on the team. So yeah, that’s pretty much what I’m saying. Give me a couple examples of good coaching from those seven games. I’ll consider them and adjust my opinion.
I also think Mike Woodson is a terrible coach, and the Hawks WON their series, and against a team that has won the NBA title recently!
Honestly, I can’t give you any examples from that series, so I’ll concede this point to you.
But I will say this – that series had no business going seven games, even with Garnett out. Just like there is no excuse why the Spurs folded in five even though Manu was out. These are veteran, championship teams who know how to win, not just groups of young, inexperienced players with a few veteran guys on each roster.
At least Boston managed to save face in round one – not off to a good start in round two, though.
Hey Buser thanks for putting this up
DocOc, I basically agree with your thoughts on how the Bulls need to move forward this off-season. As a longtime Bulls fan, I definitely appreciate what Gordon has done here but it’s time for him to go – unless they can get him at a discount. However, some team is going to sign him for around $10M per year and that’s just too much given the potential free agents after next season. Also, this economy will really continue to hurt some teams as tickets sales and revenues keep plummeting. These teams will be looking to dump some very good players to get their long-term high salaries off the books. The effects of this will definitely be seen by next year’s trade deadline, if not sooner. The Bulls have 3 large salaries coming off the books after next season (Miller $12.5M, Tim Thomas $6.46M, & Jerome James $6.6M). This sets them up nicely under both scenarios (i.e. sign a big time free agent after next season or use the expiring contracts as trade bait for a team looking to dump salaries).
The Bulls are not going anywhere past round 1 with Gordon and should focus on a starting 5 of Rose, Salmons, Deng, Thomas, & Noah. Hinrich and Miller are the first 2 off the bench and guys like Salmons can slide over to the 3 and Noah can slide over to the 4, while Hinrich can play 1 or 2.
It will be very interesting this off-season. I really hope that the Bulls avoid the temptation to dump more of their salary cap into mid-level players. They already have to deal with a combined salary of $20M for both Hinrich and Deng for the next 3 seasons. If they are patient and prudent, it should pay off for them big time.
If under the same contract, which one do you guys prefer in real life, Hinrich or Ben Gordon?
In my opinion this is like the Shane Battier vs. Carmelo Anthony argument.
And by that I mean obvious.
I know they are of different types. The reality is Deng is non-movable, With salmons and rose locked, I don’t see the Bulls to keep both Hirich and Gordon.
Gordon is a very good 3-pt and clutch shooter, this is what the Bulls lack IMO. To resign him, around 10 mil is quite likely, so that will bring him the same contract like Hirich’s.
I found that many fans (especially Bull’s) hate (not dislike) Gordon, I am very puzzling, is he really that bad as a team player?
They hate (not dislike) Gordon because he and/or his agent have been jerking around the Bulls front office the last two off-seasons. Gordon wants his $10-12 mil, but the Bulls feel he’s not worth that much. They have made him good, solid offers, but he’s turned them down.
It’s just business, but unfortunately those kind of issues are very polarizing for fans.
So, the real question is not whether BG is a good/bad team player. The real question should be what’s being thrown around here on the posts – is BG worth 10-12 mil?
Clearly Gordon is the more explosive scorer but Hinrich is a better defender and ball distributor. In a vacuum Gordon; however, Hinrich is probably the better fit with this Bulls team.
At this point, I’d much rather have both of them over Deng. The guy had a bad 07-08 season and they signed him to a big extension anyway after the season. He rewarded them with another injury-plagued stink bomb season this year. Hopefully the addition of Salmons and overall improving Bulls team will push Deng back to where he was in 06-07.
I’m obviously very interested to see where Gortat lands. He was 5th in the NBA in rebs per min and 12th in blocks per min. I think he could easily put up 9-10 ppg, 10-11 rpg, and 1.6-1.9 bpg. That would make him very useful for fantasy purposes.
Agreed, if Gortat lands in the right situation (Detroit?), he will be a major steal in next season’s draft.
I don’t see any reason why they’d want to break up a core of Howard, Lewis, Nelson and Turk, so resigning Turk is very likely I think. If they can trade Pietrus and Battie’s expiring contract, they’ll be able to keep Gortat and free up cap space. I don’t think Pietrus is any better than Lee.
And no reason to think K-Love won’t see a bigger role too. Cheap rebounds, get ‘em while there hot.
and is gortat R or UR, cause i read somewhere he was R.
He is R, but if he gets good offers, the magic probably wont match em
Gortat has no reason to stick around in Orlando playing garbage minutes when he could be the starting center on a lot of other teams like Detroit, Indiana, even San Antonio.
This is interesting…I may want to come back to this later in the summer after July 1 when things start playing out.
Two 7 footers in SA – can we say “Twin Towers”?
I wouldn’t mind seeing Gortat go to San Antonio. He’s gotta go somewhere where he could get good mins, and I think SA would give him a good chance to play because he wouldn’t be counted on for offense at all. And it would put Bonner back where he belongs, coming off the bench.
He’s an unrestricted free agent, but I think you’re both jumping the gun.
Don’t forget we need to factor in he’s playing against reserves or in a limited role most of those limited minutes and his foul rate is worse than his free throw percentage. That’s not saying much.
His top 5 man unit on 82games is Johnson-Redick-Turkoglu-Gortat-Battie.
He has no moves outside of the paint.
Marcin played in the D-League. He was not considered “good” there.
In the exact same role, Darko put up 7-4 with two swats, then 8-5 with 1.8.
Even if you’re absolutely right, the most he can hope for is someone’s MLE, at which point he’ll be on enough fantasy radars.
its true that plenty of his minutes have come against reserves, but he went for a dbl-dbl in three of his four starts this season: 16/13, 10/18, and 11/15. my thought process is that facing dwight howard every day in practice can be nothing but a good thing in terms of development. i don’t think most people are anticipating much offense, although his per-48 oReb rate is superb. i don’t see him getting big bucks, but i do think he could be one of the underrated signings of the offseason, assuming someone does pry him away from orlando
I agree with Buser… Gortat’s numbers when getting starter’s minutes make him definitely worth going after for other teams in need of a center, especially if they already have a solid option at the 4 slot. He might be an interesting signing for OKC.
And in two of those starts he was held to around 30mpg due to foul trouble. He seemed to get it together toward the end of the year, let’s see if he can keep that up.
I’d love for the Nugs to acquire him for some size i think he is a great back up C option.
Where do you all think Jamal Crawford will land? No way he Marburies it. I heard they were interested in Kirilenko. Great fit in Utah if you ask me.
As a Utah fan I’d take that trade, the problem is that AK’s making 15.1 to Craw’s 8.6 mil. AK’s is a pretty bad contract, and the Warriors don’t really have any bad contracts for the Jazz to take in return. Maybe Craw and Turiaf (I wish.)
That said, I’m sure the Jazz would love to make a trade work, and Kirilenko would thrive in the Golden State system. Stranger things have happened.
It wouldn’t necessarily mean they’d have to trade a bad contract (I’m guessing you mean “bad” as in high dollar, like AK’s?).
They would just have to balance it out with some more payroll. I think talent wise, the deal would be pretty even.
What Utah really would like would be to make this type of deal where the other contact(s) thrown in would come off their books after next season (expiring contracts). Not sure if GS has any that fit the bill though.
yeah, by bad i mean a player who is overpaid. golden state has a bunch of fairly attractive contracts. (my opinion)
also a straight up trade of crawford for ak doesn’t work under the cap rules. craw and turiaf does, or maybe craw, azubuike and a second-rounder (probably more likely).
i would say that the trade sort of makes sense for both teams, but that ak contract is just such a millstone, i doubt anything gets done. the jazz may just have to wait until NY doesn’t get lebron, maybe they’ll go back to their overpaying ways.
I’m with you – and by “straight up” I meant talent-wise. I agree they’d have to pull some kind of two or three for one because of salaries.
We’ll see how it all start to play out come July 1.
Golden State has the worst salary situation in the league.
Ellis – No one wants him for 5 years now.
Crawford – Albatross, Golden State would take back no real value to get rid of him
Jackson – Albatross, not as bad player wise but much worse because he has 2 additional years
Maggette – Albatross, just a terrible contract in the first place, winning teams don’t get stat padding ballhogs like him ever and signed for another 4 years
Milwaukee and the Clippers finish my top 3 but Golden State is locked into their rosters for much longer, until the end of 2013 whereas Milwaukee and the Clips can make progress after 2011. Giving up Azubuike at his price to get Kirilenko would be awful. I’d rather banish Crawford until finding a scenario where they aren’t picking up a guy who gets paid double and is still a role player. It would also be hard to imagine Jerry Sloan not wanting to banish Crawford also.
Agreed, they have the worst collection of long-term high salary contracts in the league. What team in their right mind would take on any of the above mentioned players contract’s straight-up? They would have to throw in at least one of their promising young players to make any such deal happen (i.e. Randolph, Wright, Azubuike, Belinelli).
The Kirilenko contract is a bad one too but he is versatile and can play multiple positions and start or come off the bench and be effective. There’s no way Utah would trade him to GS for a guy like Crawford who has no discipline and just chucks up terrible shots.
Milwaukee is surprisingly in terrible shape as well. The Gadzuric contract (almost $14M over the next 2 years) is unbelievable! There’s no way that they’ll be able to re-sign both Charlie V and Sessions. They drafted PF Alexander last year and are apparently looking at PG’s to draft this year. The writing seems to be on the wall here.
i dont know man. while we can all agree that AK would be a good fit in GS, i’m sure sure i can say the same about crawford with sloan and the jazz. they can certainly use the scoring, but crawford would need to make some real fundamental changes to fit in how they do things there
that’s true, but minute-wise it’s all he can eat. whether he would gel or not is another thing. sloan’s been playing the same motion offense since stockton/malone, but okur needs to be down low, not on the perimeter. plus, with the massive cap relief of losing boozer, kirilenko, and possibly korver they could even be big players this offseason with marion, odom, varejao or lee, then look at their team.
deron, crawford, marion, millsap, okur, brewer, azubuike
They’d probably throw Azubuike in, they don’t need him anymore. I’m not a Maggette fan, but Ellis, Jackson, Kirilenko, Randolph, and Biedins is a nice lineup, and Turiaf, Maggette, Wright, and Morrow off the bench works for me. That probably takes them out of the running for Bosh, Boozer or Amare though. Then again, Nelson could bench them all and play Jermareo Davidson at all 5 positions.
Yeah! Nelson Rocks!
Go Warriors!!!
If memory serves, didn’t the Jazz sign Maggette to an offer-sheet a few years back? I think he ended up re-signing with the Clippers but it shows that he is a player that the Jazz are interested in and I figure he would be a part of any AK47 trade.
well they at least were interested in him at one point. that offer sheet was in 2003 when he was 23 years old. he’s now 29 and owed $40M over the next four seasons
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/news/2003/07/29/maggette_clippers_ap/
Buser,
Are you going to discuss baseball at all on here this year?
Who do you think is more worth waiting for big league production, Weiters, or LaPorta?
the plan was/is for sporadic baseball posts. it’s probably about time for one…
wieters. he’ll be up in june and will mash the rest of the way. “Travis Hafner received a fairly positive report from Dr. Andrews, which is not a positive report for Matt LaPorta speculators.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Closing-Time-If-you-started-Arroyo-and-Silva-m?urn=fantasy,161674
I’m excited for the baseball post, basketball is easily my favorite fantasy sport, but I do have to say buser, that this site is much more reliable/in depth than most other fantasy analysis websites, and I would warmly welcome more frequent baseball posts, I need all the help I can get
I just got two major steals tho, B.J Upton and Papelbon for, Soriano (as long as he stays healthy) and John Baker SP, who just got joe mauer back
And in the same day, someone expressed interest in Chone Figgins and seeing as how he was riding my bench I packaged him with Corey Hart (now replaced by Soriano) for Beckett and Galvin Floyd, hopefully will get his season together but wont be too disappointed if he doesn’t, considering he had 17 wins last year and the deal was all but agreed to with just chone and corey for Beckett …
The kicker, I had proposed Manny and Baker for Upton and Papelbon, and he countered with Soriano and I accepted at about 9 a.m. yesterday
Hey Buser…
seeing that there is quite an interest in fantasy baseball, maybe what you ought to do is make baseball it’s own category in your menu (as opposed to “other sports”). Being that it’s not talked about THAT much, but you would still want to get your occasional posts and information out there and have just as much fun discussing starting pitchers and such, it would make more sense to have baseball in it’s own category at least.
That way all you baseball geeks could have your own place to go for information and discussions – not to mention having another place for Ashley to go off on this year’s draft picks.
Me personally, I’m not a baseball guy – it’s more fun playing it in my opinion. To watch it would be like fishing without having to reel your line in – sit, wait, take a nap, get a drink, ACTION! Sit, wait, take a nap, etc…I live close enough that I can do that down in Corpus Christi on a week to week basis (that’s the Texas coast for those of you who are land locked
).
And then to actually have to track the stuff!?! Sorry, not my cup.
But, whatever floats your boat.
A question for anyone who follows the Rockets closely. Brooks is getting the starting nod over Lowry at the moment, but I wonder whether Lowry will get the job next year, once he is more familiar with the system. It seems to me, admittedly not having watched a lot of rockets games, that Lowry is better suited to running an offense, while Brooks would work better as an impact scorer of the bench, a la Jason Terry.
dasein, I think that Brooks will remain as the Rockets’ starter for next season simply because he is the better shooter and this is important to spread the floor for Yao & Scola in the post.
Are you hearing this coming out of the Rockets organization or the Houston sports guys?
I like Brooks and his game, don’t get me wrong, but I understood that the move to pick up Lowry was for Houston’s FUTURE.
I think he would make a solid run at the PG slot for the Rockets, especially given a full camp and pre-season to continue learning the system. And I wouldn’t put it past the Rockets to run Brooks as a backup PG to bring energy and shooting off the bench – or, run Lowry and Brooks on the floor at the same time – play small ball with the guards while spreading the floor for the bigs.
I think the Jason Terry reference is definitely applicable here.
i think the ‘expectation’ is that brooks will hold on to the starting job, but lowry certainly will be able to force the issue, depending on how things go in camp next season. it will be a situation worth monitoring before the season – lowry is the better defender but, given the defensive prowess that already exists with team’s first unit, that doesn’t necessarily give him an edge in terms of a starting gig. if anything, brooks’ ability to create off the dribble seems like something of a necessity alongside the rest of the starting five
I think this current Lakers/Rockets series will be a good barometer as to where the Rockets can go with Brooks next year – 34-3-4, 12-20 shooting, 4-9 in 3′s, and 6-6 from the line. Pretty good if you ask me.
Lowry’s numbers were semi decent, at best – but he played a reserve roll more than anything.
I still think the possibility is there for Houston to run both of them – let Lowry focus on moving the ball around, and let Brooks go off from the two.
But regardless, given Brook’s performance as of late, there’s your starting PG.
I don’t think Lowry is anybody’s first choice for starting pg. The job is Brooks’ to lose, and he could lose it, but I think that one performance made the leash considerably longer.
Can anyone see a Mcgrady to the Knicks trade happening? How perfect would that be, the most overpaid player on a team that overpays the most players. He is the ultimate rent-a-player at 23 million, and I bet Houston would jump at the opportunity to unload him, but do the Knicks even need to shed more salary? They would potentially be getting a good player in Mcgrady. I doubt Houston would want Curry or Jeffries though. Could Gallinari or Chandler help convince the Rockets?
From what I can tell, that would be a huge trade for NY, especially considering T-Mac’s contract is up after 09-10 – it just depends on whether Houston would want anything from NY – maybe Chandler and someone else?
Otherwise, I really don’t see Houston as being THAT desperate to unload T-Mac. Don’t get me wrong, I do think that they would make that deal in a heartbeat – IF the right deal came along. I just don’t see NY as having anything Houston would really want.
But, stranger things have happened…
You mean like Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown? How ’bout the Jazz resign Boozer then trade him back to the Cavs for Lebron? Spike Lee suits up for Indianapolis?
there’s no way anyone wants curry this season, period, since he’s got 2 player option years(!) remaining. the knicks would have to come up with 20M-plus in salary to make a t-mac trade work – chandler and gallinari are the two players the knicks absolutely can’t trade, given their talent-to-salary ratios, and otherwise don’t have a lot of prized assets. lee and robinson could be sign-and-trade candidates, but i’m not sure houston makes sense for either
if they do sign and trade one of them, it’ll be a strict salary dump right, so tmac’s contract is ideal. i don’t think any of hughes, harrington, richardson, or duhon are in their long term plans so i’m sure they could make the salaries work somehow (nate+hughes?). lee definitely doesn’t fit in houston, but how much would we all love to see nate and yao on the same team? someone please make this trade happen!
Call me nuts…but i cant believe duncan, carter, or jamison are not picked yet. i understand this is for a keeper league but you cant just look 5 years down the road. i want to win every year and those are guys i couldnt pass up. duncan would be the last on the list just because of the bad knee but jamison and carter…come on. people are crazy
yeah, fair cop. people seem to be thinking dynasty league. If Im being honest, I wouldnt really pass up Jamison for many of the guys Ive recently voted for. VC is tricky, he can still ball but I find it hard to trust him.
Unfortunately for people like us who wouldn’t mind going with a Duncan, Carter, or Jamison, fantasy doesn’t really work in that aspect. It tends to lean towards younger guys who manage to be more like workhorses in putting stats together. This is the one case where the quality of the stat doesn’t win out.
Duncan may have that great looking shot block – problem is, there are guys out there who’ll get 3 of them. Carter has a sweet dunk or J – problem is, there are guys out there who’ll get half a dozen more of them.
We can debate/discuss about who’s a future HOF’er all day till we’re blue in the face – but as far as fantasy drafts go, most of the guys we’d be talking about would rank 50 or lower on the list – that’s just a fact of fantasy Bball.
And before you call me melancholy, or over nostalgic, consider this – every year I’ve played H2H, I usually try to get Duncan somewhere on my team, and build around him. This year was the first year I just “let the chips fall where they may” and let the Yahoo default list do it’s thing. I ended up having my best year to date – 2 firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. I still ended up with Duncan on two of my teams – the 2nd and the 3rd.
Now, was that just “luck” or coincidence, or does it really say something about the quality of the “older” player at that age, I don’t know? But what I DO know is I’ll have to keep my eyes on that list come next year, and make sure I don’t load it with too many “old” players, simply because I knew them as stat monsters a few years back.
I dont wanna put words into Gasolved’s mouth, but I think what he was getting at was not based on nostalgia as much as the numbers. From yahoo’s rankings for the year (by total and average respectively) Jamison was 17&28, VC was 21&30, and Rashard at 16&29, should also be added to this list. There is no reason to expect a significant drop-off from these guys, so its fair to point out that they are still on the board at no.40.
But as much as I love the Big Fundamental, at 38&39 on the year, and given the way his knee affected him towards the end, I dont think he should be considered a top 50 fantasy pick for next year. 50-60 might still be reasonable, especially if the Spurs can get him some front court help.
i think the first reply nailed it in that we’ve kinda evolved into a dynasty draft ranking as much as keepers for next season. that’s my fault as much as anything for not being a bit more specific when we got the whole thing started. with that said, i think it’s been a pretty good exercise and has definitely spawned some good discussion
yea the one that makes me the most mad is jamison. i had him this past season and getting those 9 boards on average a game were huge. i wasnt much of a rebounding squad with okur and big z but was able to steal the category a few times with that many boards coming from a forward position. having chris paul at the point didnt hurt either. i am very excited about next season seeing that it is my first time doing a keeper league. i took over for someone and adopted Dwight Howard, Amare, nash, iggy, and devin harris. i wanted to comment back on the howard stuff but decided against it. i love having him on my team. Any tips on what my first pick should be….guard…forward? i cant decide
On the nostalgia thing, yeah, I know. It’s like I’ve said before, I like to talk/type.
But I agree with you halfway on TD – I think he can be a top 50 pick (that’s where we disagree), but it’s SOLELY dependent on what the Spurs do in the off season to help him out – they really should look into getting some more front court help (as you’ve pointed out). Re-signing Gooden and/or getting someone like Boozer or even Gortat from Orlando could fix that. They also need that extra slasher/scorer – someone who could create his own shot(s).
Either way, the Spurs need to make some kind of move to help out Timmy – if they don’t, I wouldn’t draft him in the top 50 – another season’s worth of wear and tear, not to mention the DNP’s simply because Coach Pop wants to “save” him for the playoffs.
But if they make some good moves and change the makeup of the rotation, I’d consider taking him in the early rounds simply because the potential is still there (especially after what will essentially be a full summer’s rest!). Maybe not as high as a Yao or Brook Lopez, but I’d consider him in the late 30′s to 40′s.
It all depends on the settings. If you’re only allowed to keep 3-5 players, there’s no chance I’m taking TD or VC until at least round 6, there’s just too many bright young stars to build a team around. Also, the turnover rate is higher, so most older players will be part of the draft pool anyway. If you can keep 5-10 players, there’s less immediacy to go young I think, so a 33 year old Duncan doesn’t look as bad. That being said, I generally wouldn’t keep anyone over 30 unless their name is Kobe or Dirk, you’ll just end up dropping them when they decline and upgrading your next best player, who’s not as good as someone you could have taken in the 30+ year old’s place.
It wouldnt surprise me a bit if it does play out like that. Spurs are a class organisation. Ginobilli might actually be your bigger worry. That ankle seems chronic.
Agreed!
Buser. You saw the Magic game last night I’m sure.. Or atleast the highlights. And you saw Dwight afterwards complaining about Van Gundy. Just lost a little more respect for him, but then again.. That’s Dwight for you, and it’s what I’ve been saying all along.
Dwight got 3 touches in the 4th quarter.. As the Celtics went on a 17-3 run to win the game. If you watch Dwight, he doesn’t act like a superstar. He looks like the type of player who gets mad and just kinda gives up since they won’t give him the ball. Then he cries to the media.
12 pts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 4 TO’s. 5-10 shooting. STEP UP DURING THE GAME!! I’m so tired of the people on SportsCenter pointing out how non-existent Dwight is in the 4th quarter every single game. That’s not Stan Van Gundy’s fault entirely. Dwight needs to act like a leader and he should put the team on his back down the stretch instead of just completely disappearing.
That’s the last thing I’m going to say about Dwight. One day the rest of you will realize that Dwight is just a bigger Josh Smith. When his game is on, he looks like one of the best in the league.. But like Josh Smith, you never know what you’re going to get out of Dwight each game. He should be completely dominating Perkins and Davis, but whatever, I guess he’s not capable.
i’m pretty sure we witnessed everything come to a head. i completely disagree with how howard handled things after the game, and if redick is right “Stan talked about us just wanting to run the clock out instead of going and taking it” then i don’t like the way van gundy handled the gameplan. i know you like to say how you know how things will be in the future, so i’ll just say that i’m willing to wait and see how the offseason shakes out for the magic and what level of dedication howard commits to his offensive game to get closer to where he needs to be
Well since I can predict the future… Stan Van Gundy will be fired once the Magic finish choking away this series against Boston. I know it’s typical for players to throw the coach under the bus, even though they’re the ones playing. I can recall Vick and D-Hall blaming Mora for the Falcons collapse a few years ago and he got fired as a result.
And even though it’s pretty pathetic for the players to be criticizing the head coach in the midst of a tight series with the Celtics, it’s apparent they have a point. Shaq predicted all this a couple months ago.
Whoever replaces Stan as the coach will probably force feed Dwight the ball. It’s just funny to me because everyone on ESPN and TNT talks about how Dwight doesn’t get the ball enough.. And I’m sure people in Orlando are saying the same thing. But for whatever reason, the Magic just don’t seem to get the message. You would think that one of these games they would’ve made sure Dwight got like 25 shots.
I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure I heard someone say that the Magic are 0-2 when Dwight has scored 30+ points this postseason.. I haven’t checked. If that’s true, I guess it’s lose/lose for the Magic no matter what they do..
yeah i dont see how van gundy can possibly stay on as coach. btw, after a quick check of the game log: this season, including playoffs, the magic had a better win% in games where howard had less than 15 FGA (45-19, .703) than when he had 15 or more (17-8, .680). in 15 games where he took 16 or more FGA, the win% drops again (9-6, .600). simply put, the magic win when the 3s are falling and dwight plays D, at least this season. in games where he had 16 or more boards, they won a bunch (23-6, .793). in games where he had 4 or more blocks, same story (22-5, .815). the magic were 10-0 when howard had at least 16 boards and 4 blocks
A good article from Hollinger on this subject:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090513
Bit of a brain explosion from Dwight, who obviously still has some growing up to do. Nothing wrong with Lewis getting all the touches when it counts, cause he has been a defensive nightmare for the C’s. It will be hard for Van Gundy to hold the job, which is kinda a shame and maybe not deserved. However, the element that seems to have been glossed over in all of this is that the C’s arn’t the defending champs by accident. They are the mentally toughest team in the league by a long way, and havn’t really been given enough credit here. But that angle doesnt sell papers i spose…
Yes, excellent per diem from John the other day. It’s the definitive piece on Dwight’s offensive involvement.
Oh, sweet mother of… #|
gotta laugh….either that or cry
Is there any way a Biedrins/Randolph for Bosh trade could work financially? That’s one offer I wouldn’t mind losing Bosh for.
I’d be pretty happy with that too if I were the Raps. As it stands it wont work financially, besides the fact I dont see Bosh being keen on joining Nellies Misfits.
You can see for yourself which trades are allowed using ESPN’s trade machine. Knock yourself out!
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine
Yeah, Bosh probly wants to be in Miami or NY or something, but then again, Nellie will be retiring in a year or two. What about Biedrins/Randolph/Maggette for Bosh/O’Bryant? Works in the trade machine, but it almost seems like GS would be giving up too much for him. They would be shedding a pretty bad long term contract in Maggette though, so it could happen, gotta think the Raps would jump at that. Sounds like Riley is very interested in CB4 too.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2009/05/14/rileys-mandate-go-get-chris-bosh-if-he-can-do-it/
and if they can’t get randolph i’d still take brandan wright instead in that package. even though they could probably re-sign marion for less than maggette, biedrins and wright would be key.
I guess Biedrins/Wright/Maggette for Bosh/O’Bryant/Humphries makes the most sense.