Who will have the better fantasy season in 2009-10, Trevor Ariza or Ron Artest? Here’s how their lines from 2008-09 stack up:
Ariza: 82 G, 24 min, 8.9 pts, .460 FG%, .319 3PT%, .710 FT%, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.1 to, 1.7 stl, 0.3 blk
Artest: 69 G, 36 min, 17.1 pts, .401 FG%, .400 3PT%, .748 FT%, 5.2 reb, 3.3 ast, 2.0 to, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk
For another look at things, let’s also compare per-36 minute stats:
Ariza: 13.1 pts (10.7 FGA, 3.0 FTA), 1.1 3pt, 6.3 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.6 to, 2.5 stl, 0.4 blk
Artest: 17.3 pts (15.2 FGA, 3.8 FTA), 2.2 3pt, 5.3 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.1 to, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk
Ariza leaves the friendly confines of the Lakers’ roster for greater responsibility on the depleted Rockets, while Artest joins the loaded Lakers looking to defend their league championship. At this early juncture, who do you see being more useful for fantasy purposes next season?
You have to like the gamble with Ariza here. Artest won’t be putting up the same scoring numbers, which were key to his value last season. His percentages are also glaring, and while he may be getting some easier looks in L.A., he’s always been a ball stopper and shouldn’t be relied on. Add to the fact his defensive numbers (stl/blk) are no longer top 10, I think you take Ariza and hope he can find a place in the Rockets’ system.
I’m going to make a case for the Tru Warier Artest to come out on top in this one. First of all, he’s the better all-around player. One may argue that Artest will experience a stat drop-off by entering a loaded Lakers lineup and getting fewer shots, etc. However, I wouldn’t think of it so much as a drop off as a “stat redistribution”. Ron Ron may get fewer points on a nightly basis (not that he was particularly consistent on Houston), but I think people will be surprised when Artest’s sweet passing skills go on display. I also have a feeling that Artest will show an uptick in FG% and a decrease in TOs. With Kobe and Pau already the first and second options, respectively, and Ron’s respect for Kobe, he will improve his shot selection. Since most plays will run through Kobe, Ron will be looked at to handle the ball less and, thus, fewer turnovers.
As for Ariza, I will make the argument that his stats for LA were inflated due to the system he was playing in. Simply put, he would not have had all those easy buckets without Kobe or Pau setting him up. On offensively-challenged Houston, he will be looked at to carry more of the scoring load. Unfortunately, the guy just isn’t a shot creator [at this point in his young career] and isn’t surrounded by great playmakers. Aaron Brooks isn’t exactly racking up the dimes by setting up his teammates, and I don’t count on T-Mac to stay healthy long enough to make much of an impact. Therefore, I expect there to be fewer open treys and layups for Ariza. He may bring up his PPG due to there being no one else on that team to score, but threes and FG% will decrease, and more TO’s will be in order. Also, good defender he may be, I just can’t see Ariza duplicating his amazing 2.5 steals per game.
As a Laker fan, I totally recognize and appreciate Ariza’s important contributions to winning the championship, and wish we could have re-signed him. However, I have also had love for Artest and his game for a while now and think he will be a good part of the team (unlike a lot of analysts).
Great topic, Buser. Looking forward to reading what you and the rest of the peeps here think.
Well put you guys. I love my hometown boy Ariza, but Artest offers more dimensions to the game. The toughness, offense, ability to create his own shot are superior to Ariza. This gives the nod to Ron-Ron
Artest. Ariza still has too many holes in his game to jump over RonRon. For the most part, I like Doc Oc’s analysis. Ariza will be quite dependent on others and will need at least either a healthy TMac or Yao. Didn’t anyone watch Trevor take his defender to the basket or better yet pull up for a jumper in front of someone this past season? It wasn’t pretty.
Come on guys. Fantasy wise it’s going to be Ariza, stepping into the bigger role on a team transitioning to young talent from injured big money veterans. Artestbuilding around young talent after being crippled by veteran injuries. Kobe Pau Lamar and Bynum should be featured more on offense than Artest if the Lakers want to succeed. No one knows how Ron Ron will adjust to this role which he’s never been in before. If you are looking at this fantasy wise Ariza wins. Plus he projects to be the better player for many years to come
My bet is that Ariza folds under the pressure of having to be a top option on offense. It’s easy to make a spot up three when defenses are doubling Kobe and crowding the middle to prevent touches for Gasol and Bynum. I think you’ll see an increase in points, but also a dramatic decrease in %’s, as well as an increase in TOs.
you gotta figure ariza’s gonna see 32+ mins a night, and if those 36 min avg’s hold for each player next year (which i recognize they could not), i like ariza’s appeal for roto leagues and ron ron for h2h.
I think some of you are forgetting about the “KG Effect”. Lakers will be blowing out opponents on a regular basis, so Ron’s 4th quarter minutes could go way down this year, not to mention his responsibility. Fantasy-wise, I’d be prepared to take Ariza almost a full round before Ron Ron.
Houston could also have the “Clippers Effect” where they get blown out by the 3rd qtr and the starters sit the entire 4th. That wouldn’t be too good for Ariza’s stats.
Well it could be worse – he could be in Golden State suffering from the “Nelson Effect”. That’s the one where it doesn’t matter WHAT the score is, whatever rotation Nellie wants is what goes!
I still say he should do us all a favor, put us out of our misery, and employ a rotation of 8 guards with a small forward to play the five.
Some excellent pts there u guys
Artest by a lot. I don’t think Ariza is anything more than a really good role player, and he was a perfect fit in the Laker system this past season. Artest is always a huge gamble whether it’s real life or fantasy, but right now the guy is playing to win and he was on his best behavior in Houston. I think it’s safe to assume the same in Los Angeles. While his scoring average will probably dip, I think his numbers will remain very efficient, much like Pau Gasol’s did when he came over(actually, numbers like rebounds and FG% went up while TO’s went down). My guess for Artest’s numbers would be 15/5/3, a couple steals, and mid 40s shooting. Health, though, is completely up in the air.
this is going to be the most meaningless regular season of all time..
Yes and no. No doubt a lot of the elite got stronger. However, each year there are surprises whether its due to improvement or injury. There are young teams like Portland and Oklahoma City who could take a nice step forward. Then there are some teams who have some crazy talent who suffered through some significant injuries like Golden State and Washington.
Lastly, you can’t deny you’re not itching to see Orlando, LA, San Antonio, Cleveland and Boston go at one another.
Orlando is worse now than they were 2 months.. But everyone acts like they’re improved. VC is basically T-Mac in disguise, he’s not a leader.
Yes I’ll be interested in seeing Artest in LA and Shaq in Cleveland, but watching them beat everyone by 20 pts every night will get old by December. I doubt Lebron will step on the floor in the 4th qtr next season so that’ll suck for my fantasy team.
Lakers vs. Cavs/Celtics no need to play 82 games
Let’s not anoint the NBA Finals participants just yet. No one thought that Orlando would be in the Finals this time last year and certainly no one predicted that the Marcus Cambly-less Nuggets would be the #2 seed and in the Conference Finals in the West. In July 2007, I don’t think that anyone expected the Lakers to go to the 2008 Finals.
The Celtics big 3 are past their primes and have played a ton of minutes over the last 2 seasons. Garnett is already a clear injury risk and the wheels could fall off in a hurry for Allen and Pierce. The same for Shaq and Duncan.
Artest is a total wildcard. He may help the Lakers win their 2nd straight title or feud with Kobe and cause the team to implode. Nothing would surprise me with Artest.
There will be a surprise team or 2 that pushes all of these early favorites.
Don’t forget the Clippers! WHOOOOOOO!!!
This just in, Ariza maybe signing with the CAVS!!!! Wow.
Didn’t Ariza already accept the offer with Houston?
I think this is a case of the ESPN drive-by sports media trying to re-shape the NBA landscape.
Either that or they’re just bored as hell so they decided to make up some news.
“Responsible” journalism at it’s best.
That’s what happens when you rely on “Twitter” as your main source of information. This just in: Dwight Howard had pancakes for breakfast this morning! Notify all the papers.
Yeah! Pancakes rock!
Go Mrs. Butterworth!!!
mo williams is getting a bit carried away with the tweets…
What is his Twitter name?
You know what’d REALLY be funny – if you get the email saying that HE is following YOU on Twitter.
Maybe you could tweet some sense back into him.
THE_MO_WILLIAMS is his name. and i feel that it’s necessary to add that i don’t actually follow any athletes (or anyone else) on twitter – someone had mentioned that he tweeted something along those lines and i found him via a search engine
My money is on twitter being a fad that burns out within a year or 2.
I can promise you it won’t go anywhere, unless something evolves from it.
You need to realize that technology is growing exponentially.. In the past you would look at how things have changed from decade to decade. But now things are changing so fast that you can think back to 2002 and be like, “Wow cellphones back then were garbage.. I can’t believe there were no networking sites like FB or twitter… etc.”
Yeah, twitter has it’s flaws but it’s only existed for like 6 months. There’s definitely no turning back now. I love Tony Reali’s pre/mid/post-show twitter updates.
I’m just waiting for the day when we can get it piped right into our brain, 24/7 – just like that “Playstation 9″ commercial from a few years back.
Ghost in the Shell, baby, Ghost in the Shell!
Noooo…please…spare us from Mo Williams inside our heads 24/7
Man, we’d all be running around shouting random things from his sketch comedy/fan motivating videos
Imagine Gilbert Arenas inside your head for a day. You’d be talking to peanuts.
This has to be a clear case of good player on a bad team. His biggest weakness isn’t creating his own shot or the “pressure of being the go to guy” as I’ve seen suggested. This is fantasy, guys! He’ll be going to the line more, 66% career line isn’t impressive.
My support for Ariza earlier wasn’t based on the assumption that he’ll statistically outperform Artest. I simply believe he’ll be a better value when he is drafted, considering Ron always has someone willing to take a chance on him (title contender or fantasy owner) but just isn’t that great. Bad %’s on anything other than threes, high turnovers, not a prolific scorer… yuck. He’s high risk-low reward.