A few weeks back, I posted the ADP from the two early industry mocks that I participated in. This time around, I’ve added the five mocks that we’ve completed to the data. The straight ADP numbers are below, but you can download the full report (shows individual draft slots, stdev, etc) here.
| ADP | OVR | Player |
| 1.3 | ( 1 ) | Paul, Chris |
| 1.7 | ( 2 ) | James, LeBron |
| 3.1 | ( 3 ) | Wade, Dwyane |
| 4.3 | ( 4 ) | Durant, Kevin |
| 5.7 | ( 5 ) | Granger, Danny |
| 5.7 | ( 6 ) | Bryant, Kobe |
| 6.9 | ( 7 ) | Nowitzki, Dirk |
| 8.7 | ( 8 ) | Stoudemire, Amar’e |
| 10.1 | ( 9 ) | Roy, Brandon |
| 10.4 | ( 10 ) | Williams, Deron |
| 10.4 | ( 11 ) | Bosh, Chris |
| 12.4 | ( 12 ) | Gasol, Pau |
| 13.6 | ( 13 ) | Jefferson, Al |
| 13.7 | ( 14 ) | Howard, Dwight |
| 15.4 | ( 15 ) | Calderon, Jose |
| 16.4 | ( 16 ) | Billups, Chauncey |
| 18.0 | ( 17 ) | Nash, Steve |
| 19.0 | ( 18 ) | Butler, Caron |
| 19.9 | ( 19 ) | Duncan, Tim |
| 21.0 | ( 20 ) | Iguodala, Andre |
| 21.1 | ( 21 ) | Garnett, Kevin |
| 22.0 | ( 22 ) | Harris, Devin |
| 24.6 | ( 23 ) | Jamison, Antawn |
| 25.0 | ( 24 ) | Johnson, Joe |
| 26.1 | ( 25 ) | Kidd, Jason |
| 26.3 | ( 26 ) | Murphy, Troy |
| 28.4 | ( 27 ) | Smith, Josh |
| 29.6 | ( 28 ) | Lopez, Brook |
| 30.0 | ( 29 ) | Wallace, Gerald |
| 30.7 | ( 30 ) | Arenas, Gilbert |
| 33.0 | ( 31 ) | Carter, Vince |
| 33.6 | ( 32 ) | Martin, Kevin |
| 33.7 | ( 33 ) | Anthony, Carmelo |
| 34.6 | ( 34 ) | Brand, Elton |
| 34.7 | ( 35 ) | West, David |
| 35.0 | ( 36 ) | Pierce, Paul |
| 35.4 | ( 37 ) | Lewis, Rashard |
| 35.7 | ( 38 ) | Boozer, Carlos |
| 36.3 | ( 39 ) | Aldridge, LaMarcus |
| 40.6 | ( 40 ) | Marion, Shawn |
| 41.1 | ( 41 ) | Rose, Derrick |
| 44.1 | ( 42 ) | Rondo, Rajon |
| 45.4 | ( 43 ) | Biedrins, Andris |
| 47.4 | ( 44 ) | Davis, Baron |
| 48.3 | ( 45 ) | Ellis, Monta |
| 49.0 | ( 46 ) | Nelson, Jameer |
| 49.4 | ( 47 ) | Gay, Rudy |
| 49.7 | ( 48 ) | Bargnani, Andrea |
| 50.1 | ( 49 ) | Lee, David |
| 50.9 | ( 50 ) | Okur, Mehmet |
| 52.0 | ( 51 ) | Camby, Marcus |
| 53.4 | ( 52 ) | Hilario, Nene |
| 53.4 | ( 53 ) | Richardson, Jason |
| 53.6 | ( 54 ) | Jackson, Stephen |
| 53.7 | ( 55 ) | Horford, Al |
| 54.6 | ( 56 ) | Mayo, O.J. |
| 55.1 | ( 57 ) | Ginobili, Manu |
| 56.7 | ( 58 ) | Parker, Tony |
| 57.4 | ( 59 ) | Williams, Mo |
| 58.3 | ( 60 ) | Allen, Ray |
| 61.7 | ( 61 ) | Redd, Michael |
| 63.1 | ( 62 ) | Turkoglu, Hedo |
| 64.1 | ( 63 ) | Bynum, Andrew |
| 66.0 | ( 64 ) | Okafor, Emeka |
| 67.6 | ( 65 ) | Westbrook, Russell |
| 69.0 | ( 66 ) | Miller, Andre |
| 69.6 | ( 67 ) | Gordon, Ben |
| 69.7 | ( 68 ) | Randolph, Anthony |
| 69.9 | ( 69 ) | Harrington, Al |
| 70.3 | ( 70 ) | Terry, Jason |
| 71.6 | ( 71 ) | Bibby, Mike |
| 71.7 | ( 72 ) | Villanueva, Charlie |
| 73.9 | ( 73 ) | Artest, Ron |
| 74.3 | ( 74 ) | Millsap, Paul |
| 74.7 | ( 75 ) | Green, Jeff |
| 76.1 | ( 76 ) | Salmons, John |
| 77.1 | ( 77 ) | Gordon, Eric |
| 77.3 | ( 78 ) | Hawes, Spencer |
| 77.7 | ( 79 ) | Griffin, Blake |
| 81.0 | ( 80 ) | Randolph, Zach |
| 84.6 | ( 81 ) | Thomas, Tyrus |
| 86.0 | ( 82 ) | Ariza, Trevor |
| 86.3 | ( 83 ) | Bogut, Andrew |
| 86.9 | ( 84 ) | Barbosa, Leandro |
| 87.9 | ( 85 ) | Love, Kevin |
| 88.0 | ( 86 ) | Conley, Mike |
| 89.1 | ( 87 ) | Chandler, Wilson |
| 90.4 | ( 88 ) | Smith, J.R. |
| 90.4 | ( 89 ) | Odom, Lamar |
| 91.4 | ( 90 ) | Diaw, Boris |
| 91.6 | ( 91 ) | Howard, Josh |
| 92.4 | ( 92 ) | Jefferson, Richard |
| 93.0 | ( 93 ) | Scola, Luis |
| 94.6 | ( 94 ) | Beasley, Michael |
| 94.6 | ( 95 ) | Kaman, Chris |
| 98.3 | ( 96 ) | Brooks, Aaron |
| 98.7 | ( 97 ) | Ford, T.J. |
| 99.6 | ( 98 ) | Oden, Greg |
| 101.0 | ( 99 ) | Kirilenko, Andrei |
| 101.4 | ( 100 ) | Felton, Raymond |
| 103.3 | ( 101 ) | Wallace, Rasheed |
| 104.6 | ( 102 ) | Thompson, Jason |
| 105.9 | ( 103 ) | Chalmers, Mario |
| 107.1 | ( 104 ) | Robinson, Nate |
| 108.1 | ( 105 ) | Noah, Joakim |
| 108.1 | ( 106 ) | Curry, Stephen |
| 109.4 | ( 107 ) | Stuckey, Rodney |
| 110.4 | ( 108 ) | Sessions, Ramon |
| 110.6 | ( 109 ) | Crawford, Jamal |
| 110.9 | ( 110 ) | Garcia, Francisco |
| 111.7 | ( 111 ) | Young, Thaddeus |
| 112.0 | ( 112 ) | Deng, Luol |
| 112.9 | ( 113 ) | Andersen, Chris |
| 113.0 | ( 114 ) | Williams, Marvin |
| 115.3 | ( 115 ) | O’Neal, Shaquille |
| 116.3 | ( 116 ) | Miller, Mike |
| 116.7 | ( 117 ) | Hamilton, Richard |
| 118.6 | ( 118 ) | Lee, Courtney |
| 119.7 | ( 119 ) | Chandler, Tyson |
| 120.7 | ( 120 ) | O’Neal, Jermaine |
| 121.3 | ( 121 ) | Williams, Louis |
| 121.3 | ( 122 ) | Iverson, Allen |
| 123.0 | ( 123 ) | Evans, Tyreke |
| 123.1 | ( 124 ) | Stojakovic, Peja |
| 124.9 | ( 125 ) | Maggette, Corey |
| 125.4 | ( 126 ) | Gasol, Marc |
| 129.0 | ( 127 ) | Harden, James |
| 130.9 | ( 128 ) | Dunleavy, Mike |
| 131.3 | ( 129 ) | Prince, Tayshaun |
| 132.6 | ( 130 ) | Battier, Shane |
| 133.1 | ( 131 ) | Miller, Brad |
| 133.7 | ( 132 ) | Hinrich, Kirk |
| 133.9 | ( 133 ) | Brewer, Ronnie |
| 134.7 | ( 134 ) | Flynn, Jonny |
| 135.0 | ( 135 ) | Duhon, Chris |
| 135.7 | ( 136 ) | Rush, Brandon |
| 136.0 | ( 137 ) | Martin, Kenyon |
| 136.1 | ( 138 ) | McGrady, Tracy |
| 136.6 | ( 139 ) | McDyess, Antonio |
| 136.7 | ( 140 ) | Thornton, Al |
| 139.6 | ( 141 ) | Dalembert, Samuel |
| 140.0 | ( 142 ) | Haywood, Brendan |
| 140.1 | ( 143 ) | Foye, Randy |
| 141.7 | ( 144 ) | Ilgauskas, Zydrunas |
| 141.9 | ( 145 ) | Augustin, D.J. |
| 144.9 | ( 146 ) | Milicic, Darko |
| 145.7 | ( 147 ) | Perkins, Kendrick |
| 146.0 | ( 148 ) | Fernandez, Rudy |
| 146.4 | ( 149 ) | Hibbert, Roy |
| 148.3 | ( 150 ) | Jianlian, Yi |
| 149.1 | ( 151 ) | Hill, Grant |
| 150.4 | ( 152 ) | Williams, Terrence |
| 150.6 | ( 153 ) | West, Delonte |
| 151.3 | ( 154 ) | McGee, JaVale |
| 151.4 | ( 155 ) | Jennings, Brandon |
| 152.1 | ( 156 ) | Holiday, Jrue |
| 152.6 | ( 157 ) | Jack, Jarrett |
| 153.1 | ( 158 ) | Azubuike, Kelenna |
| 153.7 | ( 159 ) | Nocioni, Andres |
| 153.9 | ( 160 ) | Blatche, Andray |
| 154.0 | ( 161 ) | Gomes, Ryan |
| 154.1 | ( 162 ) | Hill, Jordan |
| 154.4 | ( 163 ) | Thabeet, Hasheem |
| 155.0 | ( 164 ) | Hughes, Larry |
| 155.6 | ( 165 ) | Gallinari, Danilo |
| 155.6 | ( 166 ) | Moon, Jamario |
| 155.7 | ( 167 ) | Rubio, Ricky |
| 156.1 | ( 168 ) | Wright, Brandan |
| 157.7 | ( 169 ) | Wilcox, Chris |
| 157.9 | ( 170 ) | DeRozan, DeMar |
| 158.0 | ( 171 ) | Bass, Brandon |
| 158.1 | ( 172 ) | Ellington, Wayne |
| 158.3 | ( 173 ) | Turiaf, Ronny |
| 158.4 | ( 174 ) | Tinsley, Jamaal |
| 158.4 | ( 175 ) | Landry, Carl |
| 158.4 | ( 176 ) | Lopez, Robin |
| 158.6 | ( 177 ) | Johnson, Amir |
| 158.7 | ( 178 ) | Davis, Glen |
| 158.7 | ( 179 ) | Warrick, Hakim |
| 158.7 | ( 180 ) | Krstic, Nenad |
| 158.9 | ( 181 ) | Udrih, Beno |
| 158.9 | ( 182 ) | Webster, Martell |
| 159.0 | ( 183 ) | Pietrus, Mickael |
| 159.0 | ( 184 ) | Haslem, Udonis |
| 159.1 | ( 185 ) | Anderson, Ryan |
| 159.3 | ( 186 ) | Wright, Julian |
| 159.6 | ( 187 ) | Douglas-Roberts, Chris |
| 159.9 | ( 188 ) | Murray, Ronald |
| 160.0 | ( 189 ) | Varejao, Anderson |
| 160.1 | ( 190 ) | Belinelli, Marco |
| 160.1 | ( 191 ) | Mbah a Moute, Luc Richard |
| 160.3 | ( 192 ) | Richardson, Quentin |
| 160.3 | ( 193 ) | Delfino, Carlos |
| 160.3 | ( 194 ) | Ming, Yao |
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Very helpful spreadsheet, Mr. Buser. I’d be interested in seeing which of the mocks were roto and which were H2H. Otherwise, it is a nice summary of different ADP rankings. I hope you are planning on updating when more data is available because that would be even better.
wow, thanks Matt.
I wonder how how much this type of thing becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I know I tend to lean on the ADP in my draft strategy. So if a lot of people do the same, then whatever randomness there was in the early drafts gradually gets reinforced until it is locked in.
Good stuff.
I haven’t been leaning on ADP much in my drafts and it’s shown with my consistently missing out and A-dolph, Tyrus, and Wilson Chandler every single time.
Whats this, Calderon ahead of Nash, Billups, and Kidd.. Thats what I thought.
Billups, Nash, Calderon, Kidd. That exact order for me
Calderon, Kidd, Nash, Billups… Harris
Don’t forget my man Timmy D! I seem to remember an argument we had early on about NOT taking him in the top 25 – ADP of 19 sounds like top 25 to me!
Wasnt that for a keeper leagueÉ Im not that surprised, but Harris, Jamison, Murphy and Lopez might be more intriguing to me due to their depth and his age. He could easily be a 20-10-2 guy still though.
^their^ meaning the Spurs.
No, not the keeper league argument – the one after that, where we all turned in our top 25 lists. I seem to remember that there were only a few of us who felt Duncan was justified as a top 25 pick (I had him at 25 on my list). I thought even you were on that side as well, Cap.
(If I’m wrong, sorry – I don’t mean to put words in anyone’s mouth!)
But I agree with your assessment – he could still get 20-10-2 (or better in my opinion), even though he didn’t have it last year (19.3-10.7-1.7).
I think people are reaching on Bargnani. 5th-round for a center who grabs around 5 boards a game does not sit pretty w/ me. I like his funkiness w/ threes and BLK, though. I think too many people are reaching for AR. He might be a freakish athlete, but we might all be too carried away. Hawes and Barbosa should be knocked down too. The PG situations in all of Sessions’ destinations (deliberate rhyming included) are pretty messy. He could play behind Baron Davis in LAC (which is not all bad I guess w/ Boom’s injury bug). He could be a triumvirate in MIL w/ Ridnour and Jennings. Or arguably worse, he could cancel value w/ Duhon in NY in a timeshare. Am I totally off? As for Lou, I really think he can bust out this year. People are sleeping on Iverson too. If Delfino can solidify himself in the rotation, he could post steady swingman stats.
sleeping on Iverson?
the guy doesnt have a team yet!
Sorry man, but I disagree on Barg, AR, Hawes, and Bosa. Centers that hit threes are a rare commodity, and I expect big improvements from Bargs and Hawes this year. Im surprised AR didnt go sooner, and no reason to think Barbosa cant carve out a big role this year, and hes got very fantasy friendly skills. Im with you on Delfino though, sleeper steals pick.
I think Andrea is overrated. It’s rare that a “center” doesn’t average a single offensive rebound per game. He was great to own last year and I do see his appeal as a center-spot-placeholder-thatdoesn’tquiterunwiththenorm, but I do not see him being worth a fourth round pick. Having Turkoglu instead of Marion does help him on the rebounding front, but they did sign Reggie Evans because Andrea doesn’t have the toughness inside to consistently bring down boards.
His ADP is ahead of three players, Nene, Horford, and Camby, whom I would take ahead of him in a heartbeat. After them he’s right there with Okur. I see him basically mirroring Okur’s line with an extra half-block and quite a bit worse FG%.
Hawes is on the same boat but on a different river. I’m particularly but if he felt a round I’d consider him worth drafting.
Barbosa as a starter is no joke though. if he match or improve on his 2006-2007 season then he is well worth his ADP.
I think what people forget about Andrea is that he’s only 24 years old. He’s only been in the league 3 years and has improved every year. Trust a guy who’s watched every game he’s played, he’s definitely worth his ADP. Guys like Nene and Camby have already reached their ceiling, but Bargnani isn’t even close yet. He was looking like a bust a few years ago, but over the last year and a half he has really showed his Dirk-like potential.
The more comfortable he gets, the more his shots are gonna fall, and the more his inside game is gonna develop. He also looked very smooth off the dribble last year, and has gotten much better at finishing, creating all kinds of defensive problems. Not to mention, his 83% FT shooting was best in the league among Cs (behind Yao Ming) so that’s a huge bonus.
I’m hearing he’s bulked up even more this offseason and has been working on his rebounding, so I’d expect at least 17+ points, 7-8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, and 1.5 threes, and close to 45% FG and 85% FT, from a C those are elite #s (see: Rasheed Wallace in his prime). Mark my words, he will be an all star one day.
That’s what I’m expecting out of him too except closer to seven rebounds, but I still wouldn’t call it elite. Just because he gets a trey and a block doesn’t make him a fourth round pick. His FG% is too low for a center and that just doesn’t work for me. Personally I would rather have Nene’s second ranked FG% (60.4% to Shaq’s 60.9%) since it’s something that I can’t get from the guard or forward position, and work my threes elsewhere.
Well first of all, it’s not 1 trey and 1 block, it’s AT LEAST 1.5 treys, 0.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks, and I see that as the minimum.
True, Nene shoots a great FG%, but how many centers can you say shoot 83% from the line on 270+ attempts? Oh yeah, just 1, and he’s out for the entire season, making Bargs most likely the single most positive output in FT% from the C position this year. If he can increase his FG% just a bit, like I suspect he will, that puts him ahead of those other guys in my opinion. Note that he did shoot close to 50% from the field and an outstanding 45.7% from beyond the arc after the all star break last year, once Triano gave him 30+ minutes.
He’s not gonna win rebounds or FG% for you, but he won’t hurt you there either. Remember Rasheed Wallace was a top 25 guy in his prime and I see Bargs mimicking those #s eventually.
Mr. GM, can’t refer you to any articles off the top of my head, but that’s what they’re saying on RaptorsTV here in TO. His 21/8 in limited minutes in a recent game with Italy is a good sign. Maybe not an all star this year, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make it by the time he’s 28 or 30.
You make some very valid points about his FT% and post-All Star FG%, and if that’s his upside then I would bite on him before Okur and possibly Camby depending on my team needs. I still see Nene’s domination of FG% outweighing Andrea’s contributions in FT% and 3PM, but I rank both in the 5th round behind Horford.
Not to take anything away from Nene’s superb year last year, but one thing that can be said is that FG% varies much more from year to year than FT% does, and I find myself doubting Nene can shoot 60% again this year, especially when he shot 40.9% the year before.
I like Horford too, he can be a big help in rebounds, but he does little else, and with Joe Smith on board, and Zaza and Marvin back, he could fall into similar #s to last year. Can’t see him doing any better than 12/10/1.5. Still very useful #s, but Barg has way more upside.
Nene played 16 games @ 16:36 MPG in ’07-’08 two years ago when he averaged 40.9%. In the years before that (excluding his missed season) he averaged 51.9%, 53.0%, 50.3%, and 57.0%. Last year is a likely indication of what’s to come from him and he still has a little room to grow. He may not shoot repeat his 60% shooting, but will likely be in the 55% range.
As for Horford… Joe Smith is a reserve behind Josh Smith, Zaza is an energy-type backup, and Marvin is a small forward Al’s played beside his entire career… none of them affect Horford whatsoever.
Last year he struggled through injuries and his numbers didn’t show any signs of major improvements, that much is true, but if you look at the game logs of his first year you can see how much potential he has. It’s littered with sub-30 minute games and he still nearly managed to average a double-double. His scoring ceiling is limited with the presence of Josh Smith, but he can very well average twelve rebounds per game and possibly three assists.
For his other stats…
FG% – It won’t drop below 50%.
STL – He has the quickness to get a steal per.
BLK – These figure to continue rising steadily as he gains experience.
AST – 4-5-6 assist games weren’t uncommon last season. He may be able to average near 2.8-3.2 APG.
Yeah, I know ’07 was a bust for Nene, but that’s even more reason to be cautious. Even if he ends up at 55%, what else are you getting, a few extra steals? Barg can match him in rebounds, and blocks, and add a big bonus in PTS, FT% and 3s, without sacrificing too much in FG% and STL, especially if he can get up to like 18 points on 48% or 49% shooting.
I had Horford on my team for the past two years, so I know exactly what you’re getting. I’ll give you 12 rebounds if you want, but 2 blocks and 5 assists is asking a bit much I think. My point about the Hawk’s depth was that they only have so many minutes to go around, and I feel like Woodson is gonna give Zaza like 15 consistently, just to be cautious. If Horford can get up in the 36-39 range though, he’s moving up my list for sure.
Oh sorry, you said 2.8-3.2 AST, yeah he could do that.
Points and 3PM aren’t the stats I look for or worry about with my C’s. While they are welcome, they are also easy to come by. I don’t see Barg’s FT% a big bonus in h2h either. He doesn’t have enough free throw attempts to make a considerable enough impact on a week-to-week basis that, say, Kevin Martin will have. It’s a nice touch but really a commodity that’s only appreciated in roto. I can see Barg getting slightly north or south of seven rebounds but he won’t be shooting near 50% for the year. No no no. He should hover a little bit above 45%, but even that isn’t guaranteed if you look at his first two years, even if he has turned the corner.
Horford is very steady in blocks and that’s why he should have around 1.8-1.9 per game this year. It is his third year by the way, the same year Barg and many others have broken out.
That’s why I called it a “bonus”, cause you still get C stats from Bargnani, but you also get great FT%, points, and 3s from your C spot when your opponent doesn’t. And I don’t buy the “it’s H2H so FT% doesn’t matter” theory, it’s still a category, whether a player goes 5-6 or 20-24, 83% is 83%, and Bargnani helps you in the category more than any other C, so that’s quite an impact I’d say. You might not see what I see in Bargnani yet just by looking at the #s, but I’ve seen him develop from day 1 and I can confidently say that he hasn’t even come close to his full potential yet.
I didn’t say “in h2h FT% doesn’t matter”. I said that in h2h you can get away with a low attempt, poor free throw shooter and still win that week, where as in roto everything is reflected and taking a poor free throw shooter becomes a much greater risk.
In h2h your teams total FTA/FTM are converted into your weekly FT%. It isn’t the average of each individual players FT%. If I had a 50% free throw shooter who only got to the line once a game then I wouldn’t be at much of a loss if I also an 80% shooter that got eight ten times.
Some players with center eligibility that have very positive impacts in FT% are Bosh, Amar’e, and formerly Yao Ming, among others.
It’s the same in roto that it is in H2H: Your percentages are calculated off to total attempts/makes, not averaging the percents.
Well, Evony seem to have gotten rid of the tranny, but now it looks like an add for an ‘escort’ agency.
Will they ever win?
Maybe you need to sort them out with a design ST
LOL!!!
What the hell is that?!? Some kind of combination MMO porn game?!?
It doesn’t take a graphic designer to figure out that they need a picture of something else.
Like a troll.
Or an elf.
As long as it’s not busting out of it’s size 34D’s!
Sweet mother of underwear!
I think it has probably been a pretty effective campaign. I’m pretty sure the game has little to do with boobs, but if they had littered our screens with broad swords and level 12 Ranger-Elves would we be talking about it? I definitely wouldn’t have taken the time to google “evony” to see what it was about.
Ah, yes – the effective marketing campaign – sex sells!
Tell you what…I’m married and all, but I’m still a guy. I could care less if it’s Zena dressed half naked with armor, riding on a white stallion in super slow-motion. At least make sure that a) the chick doesn’t look like she’s ready to fall out of her brazier, and b) she looks like a chick – not like a guy with huge breasts and his Adam’s apple Photoshoped out of the pic!
But I can’t argue with you on one point – the campaign worked! I sure as hell wouldn’t have been talking about it without having someone like dasein to mention it. (I’ll never forgive you for that one, d!
)
Yeah, kinda reminds me of a certain series of video games that I have. Sure, she’s an explorer, an archaeologist, and so on…but she’s built like a brickhouse. Appeals to both the women who want to see themselves in the lead role….and the adolescent boys who are drawn in by the obvious “assets”. Wins both ways.
Yeah! Brickhouses rock!
Go Angelina Jolie, Megan Fox, and any other actress who wants to be Lara Croft!!!
Cap: Bargs an All-Star is an overstatement. And where did you hear he was improving on his game? I would like to see the article. I know Gay bulked up, Arenas supposedly looks as if he never had an injury, and Artest and Beasley are being themselves, but I’ve heard nothing on Bargs’ front.
Speaking of Beasley, with all this latest rehab news how much better or worse off does anyone think the Heat would be if they had taken OJ Mayo instead of Beasley?
Everyone has problems. At least he did the responsible thing. It’s still too early to tell (Year 2. As for Oden over Durant, looks like Rip City passed up on another superstar swing *ahem* Michael “Air” Jordan *ahem*)
Man, I hope he gets straight. You start questioning why “the whole world” is against you, and next thing we hear, in some hotel room somewhere, there’s a coffee table full of dope, and you’re hanging from the shower rod in the bathroom.
He’s doing the right thing by trying to get help, and I wish him the best.
But if it is pot, it seriously kills his prospects in my mind, at least for this season. Even Cap had been talking him up one of the last mocks we did. Possible trade between our two squads involving Beasley. I took a look at the numbers and agreed it might have worked (in theory, of course, they’re just mocks) – but now, I really don’t know.
At least the only stupid thing he did was take a picture of himself with baggies in the background – he could have done worse!
Didn’t he learn anything from Michael Phelps?
Just out of curiosity, does anyone want to try a 20-team, 10-player draft? I normally split the rebounds and add personal fouls. I do both roto and h-2-h.
Set it up and let us know – I’m sure there will be some takers. If I’m not in the middle of something or I’m not going anywhere, I’ll jump in.
Don’t forget to give us the PW if it’s private.
You let me know where I can do that without waiting for the pre-season opening and I’ll see about getting it done.
easiest way might be to get Buser to set it up, and post it on here.
Just tell him what cats u want to use. For selfish reasons, i’d like
FG, FT, pts, 3s, ast, OR, DR, stl, blks, ast, Ast:TO
but your idea, so your call.
Well, let’s see if Buser’s willing.
What say ye? 20-team, 10-player, split the rebounds and add personal fouls. Are ya game?
As a side note: I’ve seen the rise of this “plus-minus” statistical listing and it definitely looks intriguing. If Yahoo decides to allow this option, I’m all for adding that one in as a stat catagory (but that’s another issue for another time).
really dont understand the PFs. You get penalised for taking a strategic foul at the end of the game to help your team? You get penalised for sending shaq to the line instead of giving up an easy dunk? Makes no sense to me, and Id just as soon not have it.
…but…I wont not do it if they are included. Also, lets go for 20 x 12.
If you want to run a 20-by-12, be my guest. Nobody’s going to stop you from doing that.
The reasons I went with 10-man:
1. There are only five positions out on the court.
2. I only one one bench relief per position.
Er…”want one”. Damn fingers.
I really don’t mind either way, but how you gonna control what positions 20 guys draft for? They are only listed as Gs and Fs in the aplet, so whats to stop someone taking 4 PGs?
Yeah, I think the app’s geared more for the NFL than basketball.
I used Buser’s spreadsheet (draft sheet 2) the other night, and I was able to follow along and find which players had multiple eligibility.
I still need to play with MDC’s app some more and get used to the player charts and search function (which drives me nuts sometimes!).
I wish Yahoo would do private mocks, though. I had been doing their mocks for the NFL early on, and their app is great! Only problem is, now with every Tom, Dick, and Charlie wanting to do a mock, the drafts fill up almost instantaneously! You have to be on a really fast connection to even get in – I’m talking 10-12 mbs! I just upgraded to 6, and I was barely able to get into one yesterday around mid-day.
If they would allow private mocks like MDC, I think the app would be much better/easier to use.
As far as the 20-10, I wouldn’t mind mocking it with you, just for kicks – but WOW! Another tough call league to be in! Start 5 with 5 backups – that’s a challenge as well!
And that’s why I call my leagues the “Ultimate Challengers Leagues”.
Honestly, I’d dearly love it if I could get stat projections for the next season before I do an off-season mock draft. I normally base my decisions on looking at projected stats from several magazines and somehow boil them down into one list and then make my decisions there. That normally doesn’t occur until it’s actually the opening draft period before the season starts, so I’m kinda screwed.
The fact that overloading in one part hurts them somewhere else.
The +/- stat will never be a fantasy category for the following reasons:
1. If favors the best teams like the Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets, and Magic heavily. Note, 21 of the top 25 leaders in +/- were on these teams. Does Shannon Brown being a top 25 anything make sense to you?
2. While it does reflect an individual player’s skill to a certain extent, it’s primarily a team-oriented stat, whereas fantasy is all about the individual.
3. It’s somewhat redundant when you’re already counting a player’s overall line.
4. It’s not a formal statistic that will show up in the record books. It’s like triple-doubles. While it’s nice to keep track of them outside the fantasy realm, it’s somewhat meaningless when you’re already counting points, assists, and rebounds.
Yeah, Oscar kinda made keeping track of triple-doubles a bit worthless, didn’t he? Aside for amusement value.
sho’nuff. Im in a 20 team league with split rebounds, so this would be great practice. Personal fouls seems very silly to me so I’d prefer they not be included. But whatevers, either way I’ll be in.
Now, this is really something I shouldn’t complain about, because I ENJOY winning leagues, but I can’t for the life of me understand this obsession with taking Deron Williams in the 1st round…much less the MIDDLE of the 1st.
The first round is for taking the FOUNDATION of your team…a player than is average to excellent in almost every category. In H2H, you can also include players that are exceptional in several stats like Dwight Howard. Deron doesn’t qualify in either case. He’s one of the very best in assists. His FT% impact is very good, but not exceptional. He’s above average in scoring, but on the low side compared to the 1st round players. He’s average+ in steals. He’s average in FG%, which is good for a PG but still average. He’s average- at best in 3s. He doesn’t block shots or rebound much, and his turnover rate is godawful.
I just don’t see what their is here to go ga-ga about. He’ll almost certainly be one of the top 3 in assists…but it’s much more likely he’ll be 3rd than 1st. Compare him to Pau Gasol, who’s slipping to the beginning of the 2nd a lot. Very strong in FG%/Rebounds. Strong in blocks. About the same scoring as Deron, and above average in assists (especially for a big!). Average+ in TOs (very rare for a 1st rounder). Average in FT%. Doesn’t shoot 3s and weak in steals.
NO comparison at all, Gasol is a much better base for a team.
yeah, I noticed the same thing.
I think that people just see the 1-12 ranks and figure there isnt much difference between 12 and 6, and they want to secure a top pg. Of course it isn’t true that the bottom half is a wash- there is a steep value gradient from the top to the bottom of the first round.
I’d also add that the people taking Durant at 3 are committing the same mistake. Not much difference between 3 and 4 right? Wrong- there was significant daylight between their values last year, and putting Durant at 4 is already assuming a hefty increase in production. If you are really nervous about Wade’s injury-proneness, maybe I can see Durant, but just be aware that you’d likely be leaving a lot of value on the table.
The thing is, Deron isn’t even a 12 pick. Funston has him at 15, and I think THAT’S slightly generous. I think 17-20 is a more reasonable place to take him, and honestly don’t expect him to produce more than 24th rank value. In roto, I would just about always draft Nash, Billups, and Calderon ahead of him, and possibly Kidd as well, depending on my first pick.
While I don’t think you’re wrong, I can understand that people are prepared to pay a premium for certainty. We know that the Jazz are Deron’s team and he is certain to get all the minutes he can handle. Also, his numbers are predictable and he’s young so there is no expectation of decline. With Billups, Nash, and Kidd, there is always some fear in the back of the mind that this will be the year we see marked decline.
I actually think Devin Harris in the late second, is a much worse pick than Deron in the late 1st. Harris was in the 40′s in per game numbers last year. Is he going to get that much better? I see last year as pretty close to his ceiling, not to mention his injury history. I think it is the same factors in play for both these guys though – youth, PT certainty, and perceived position scarcity.
No real difference in expecting Deron to improve from 28 to 12 than there is in expecting Devin to improve from 42 to 24. Actually, based on last year’s rankings, it’s a slightly LARGER increase for Deron.
There is a shortage of point guards that can get you 10+ assists per game, there’s no doubt about it. That fact is completely irrelevant to winning a fantasy league, though. You don’t need a 10 assist point guard to win. You don’t need an 8 assist, or a 6 assist point guard either. You can even get a 12 in assists without having a 6+ assist point guard. All that having a huge assist guy does is let you be lazy about the category.
I didn’t say anyone expects Deron to improve to 12th overall. What I’m trying to say is that the draft positions (especially) at the top are a combination of value and risk. It is risk that stops guys like KG and Murphy going in the first round. Likewise, most aren’t prepared to take Ray-Ray, Jameer, and JET in the 2nd round, even though last years performances warrant it. Well, if these guys are dropping out, others have to rise and take their place, and the guys that are rising are the young studs with assured PT and team importance- Deron, Harris, Iggy, Jo-Jo etc. Their numbers don’t justify their draft positions, but people value the near-certainty that they will provide good numbers.
I’m not arguing with your position Goob, I agree with what you’re saying. I’m just trying to explain what we are seeing. I’m neither defending it nor totally condemning it.
I can see the reasoning for some people taking Williams ahead of the 30-something PGS. I think it’s wrongheaded, but I can see it. I can understand being arch-conservative and passing on Amara and Jefferson to take him…but still believe it’s a mistake. Passing on Nowitzki, Roy, Gasol to take him…that’s just insane
Agreed!