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This report contains average draft position data compiled from 11 of our mock drafts – I didn’t include #’s 12 or 13 because of the large number of auto-picks, and didn’t include the two early industry mocks because of how long ago they took place. You’ll find the straight list below and can view the entire spreadsheet on Google docs.
| ADP | ( OVR ) | Player |
| 1.2 | ( 1 ) | Paul, Chris |
| 1.8 | ( 2 ) | James, LeBron |
| 3.4 | ( 3 ) | Wade, Dwyane |
| 4.1 | ( 4 ) | Durant, Kevin |
| 5.8 | ( 5 ) | Bryant, Kobe |
| 6.0 | ( 6 ) | Granger, Danny |
| 7.9 | ( 7 ) | Stoudemire, Amar’e |
| 8.0 | ( 8 ) | Nowitzki, Dirk |
| 9.2 | ( 9 ) | Williams, Deron |
| 10.1 | ( 10 ) | Bosh, Chris |
| 11.5 | ( 11 ) | Roy, Brandon |
| 12.0 | ( 12 ) | Howard, Dwight |
| 12.5 | ( 13 ) | Gasol, Pau |
| 14.2 | ( 14 ) | Jefferson, Al |
| 16.8 | ( 15 ) | Billups, Chauncey |
| 16.9 | ( 16 ) | Calderon, Jose |
| 17.2 | ( 17 ) | Nash, Steve |
| 18.5 | ( 18 ) | Butler, Caron |
| 19.8 | ( 19 ) | Duncan, Tim |
| 20.2 | ( 20 ) | Harris, Devin |
| 22.2 | ( 21 ) | Kidd, Jason |
| 22.9 | ( 22 ) | Iguodala, Andre |
| 23.1 | ( 23 ) | Garnett, Kevin |
| 24.1 | ( 24 ) | Johnson, Joe |
| 25.1 | ( 25 ) | Jamison, Antawn |
| 25.7 | ( 26 ) | Murphy, Troy |
| 27.6 | ( 27 ) | Arenas, Gilbert |
| 27.7 | ( 28 ) | Lopez, Brook |
| 29.9 | ( 29 ) | Wallace, Gerald |
| 31.2 | ( 30 ) | Smith, Josh |
| 31.5 | ( 31 ) | West, David |
| 32.9 | ( 32 ) | Carter, Vince |
| 33.2 | ( 33 ) | Brand, Elton |
| 36.0 | ( 34 ) | Pierce, Paul |
| 36.2 | ( 35 ) | Martin, Kevin |
| 36.4 | ( 36 ) | Anthony, Carmelo |
| 37.7 | ( 37 ) | Lewis, Rashard |
| 40.1 | ( 38 ) | Marion, Shawn |
| 40.3 | ( 39 ) | Boozer, Carlos |
| 40.5 | ( 40 ) | Aldridge, LaMarcus |
| 42.3 | ( 41 ) | Nelson, Jameer |
| 43.6 | ( 42 ) | Rondo, Rajon |
| 45.1 | ( 43 ) | Rose, Derrick |
| 46.5 | ( 44 ) | Biedrins, Andris |
| 46.9 | ( 45 ) | Camby, Marcus |
| 47.1 | ( 46 ) | Bargnani, Andrea |
| 48.1 | ( 47 ) | Okur, Mehmet |
| 48.3 | ( 48 ) | Davis, Baron |
| 49.0 | ( 49 ) | Gay, Rudy |
| 50.2 | ( 50 ) | Lee, David |
| 50.2 | ( 51 ) | Ellis, Monta |
| 51.3 | ( 52 ) | Hilario, Nene |
| 51.9 | ( 53 ) | Horford, Al |
| 53.5 | ( 54 ) | Richardson, Jason |
| 54.0 | ( 55 ) | Ginobili, Manu |
| 56.0 | ( 56 ) | Jackson, Stephen |
| 56.4 | ( 57 ) | Williams, Mo |
| 56.8 | ( 58 ) | Parker, Tony |
| 56.9 | ( 59 ) | Allen, Ray |
| 57.5 | ( 60 ) | Redd, Michael |
| 64.3 | ( 61 ) | Mayo, O.J. |
| 64.5 | ( 62 ) | Okafor, Emeka |
| 65.4 | ( 63 ) | Bynum, Andrew |
| 65.5 | ( 64 ) | Terry, Jason |
| 66.0 | ( 65 ) | Randolph, Anthony |
| 66.0 | ( 66 ) | Turkoglu, Hedo |
| 66.0 | ( 67 ) | Miller, Andre |
| 68.6 | ( 68 ) | Harrington, Al |
| 69.7 | ( 69 ) | Bibby, Mike |
| 72.0 | ( 70 ) | Westbrook, Russell |
| 73.3 | ( 71 ) | Gordon, Ben |
| 75.8 | ( 72 ) | Artest, Ron |
| 76.4 | ( 73 ) | Hawes, Spencer |
| 76.5 | ( 74 ) | Salmons, John |
| 76.5 | ( 75 ) | Millsap, Paul |
| 77.0 | ( 76 ) | Villanueva, Charlie |
| 78.5 | ( 77 ) | Gordon, Eric |
| 79.2 | ( 78 ) | Thomas, Tyrus |
| 80.3 | ( 79 ) | Green, Jeff |
| 80.3 | ( 80 ) | Randolph, Zach |
| 81.6 | ( 81 ) | Griffin, Blake |
| 83.4 | ( 82 ) | Barbosa, Leandro |
| 85.3 | ( 83 ) | Ariza, Trevor |
| 85.9 | ( 84 ) | Bogut, Andrew |
| 86.1 | ( 85 ) | Chandler, Wilson |
| 86.2 | ( 86 ) | Jefferson, Richard |
| 86.6 | ( 87 ) | Conley, Mike |
| 87.2 | ( 88 ) | Diaw, Boris |
| 87.2 | ( 89 ) | Love, Kevin |
| 90.8 | ( 90 ) | Odom, Lamar |
| 91.9 | ( 91 ) | Howard, Josh |
| 92.0 | ( 92 ) | Scola, Luis |
| 92.5 | ( 93 ) | Smith, J.R. |
| 94.6 | ( 94 ) | Chalmers, Mario |
| 96.6 | ( 95 ) | Ford, T.J. |
| 98.5 | ( 96 ) | Kaman, Chris |
| 100.1 | ( 97 ) | Felton, Raymond |
| 100.5 | ( 98 ) | Beasley, Michael |
| 101.4 | ( 99 ) | Kirilenko, Andrei |
| 103.5 | ( 100 ) | Garcia, Francisco |
| 103.8 | ( 101 ) | Brooks, Aaron |
| 104.6 | ( 102 ) | Crawford, Jamal |
| 104.6 | ( 103 ) | Oden, Greg |
| 107.0 | ( 104 ) | Andersen, Chris |
| 107.4 | ( 105 ) | Noah, Joakim |
| 107.5 | ( 106 ) | Stuckey, Rodney |
| 108.3 | ( 107 ) | Sessions, Ramon |
| 109.1 | ( 108 ) | Robinson, Nate |
| 109.4 | ( 109 ) | O’Neal, Shaquille |
| 109.5 | ( 110 ) | Thompson, Jason |
| 110.6 | ( 111 ) | Hamilton, Richard |
| 110.9 | ( 112 ) | Wallace, Rasheed |
| 114.5 | ( 113 ) | Miller, Mike |
| 115.0 | ( 114 ) | Williams, Marvin |
| 115.2 | ( 115 ) | Deng, Luol |
| 115.2 | ( 116 ) | Young, Thaddeus |
| 115.7 | ( 117 ) | Lee, Courtney |
| 116.2 | ( 118 ) | Iverson, Allen |
| 116.5 | ( 119 ) | Curry, Stephen |
| 116.9 | ( 120 ) | O’Neal, Jermaine |
| 119.1 | ( 121 ) | Williams, Louis |
| 120.5 | ( 122 ) | Dunleavy, Mike |
| 120.8 | ( 123 ) | Duhon, Chris |
| 122.0 | ( 124 ) | Gasol, Marc |
| 123.1 | ( 125 ) | Chandler, Tyson |
| 124.0 | ( 126 ) | Maggette, Corey |
| 128.8 | ( 127 ) | Brewer, Ronnie |
| 129.2 | ( 128 ) | Evans, Tyreke |
| 129.7 | ( 129 ) | Stojakovic, Peja |
| 129.8 | ( 130 ) | Battier, Shane |
| 131.5 | ( 131 ) | Martin, Kenyon |
| 131.7 | ( 132 ) | McGrady, Tracy |
| 132.9 | ( 133 ) | Harden, James |
| 135.5 | ( 134 ) | Prince, Tayshaun |
| 135.5 | ( 135 ) | Flynn, Jonny |
| 136.2 | ( 136 ) | Hinrich, Kirk |
| 138.1 | ( 137 ) | Miller, Brad |
| 138.2 | ( 138 ) | Dalembert, Samuel |
| 138.9 | ( 139 ) | Rush, Brandon |
| 139.0 | ( 140 ) | Haywood, Brendan |
| 139.0 | ( 141 ) | Ilgauskas, Zydrunas |
| 140.2 | ( 142 ) | Foye, Randy |
| 140.5 | ( 143 ) | Thornton, Al |
| 142.6 | ( 144 ) | Hibbert, Roy |
| 142.9 | ( 145 ) | Perkins, Kendrick |
| 143.5 | ( 146 ) | McDyess, Antonio |
| 144.7 | ( 147 ) | Hill, Grant |
| 145.4 | ( 148 ) | Augustin, D.J. |
| 148.1 | ( 149 ) | West, Delonte |
| 149.3 | ( 150 ) | Fernandez, Rudy |
| 149.4 | ( 151 ) | Turiaf, Ronny |
| 149.9 | ( 152 ) | Jianlian, Yi |
| 150.0 | ( 153 ) | Milicic, Darko |
| 151.2 | ( 154 ) | Jennings, Brandon |
| 152.0 | ( 155 ) | Moon, Jamario |
| 154.0 | ( 156 ) | Azubuike, Kelenna |
| 154.3 | ( 157 ) | Jack, Jarrett |
| 154.7 | ( 158 ) | Nocioni, Andres |
| 154.9 | ( 159 ) | Haslem, Udonis |
| 154.9 | ( 160 ) | Gomes, Ryan |
| 155.4 | ( 161 ) | Gallinari, Danilo |
| 155.8 | ( 162 ) | Warrick, Hakim |
| 156.0 | ( 163 ) | McGee, JaVale |
| 156.2 | ( 164 ) | Ming, Yao |
| 156.3 | ( 165 ) | Varejao, Anderson |
| 156.4 | ( 166 ) | Morrow, Anthony |
| 156.6 | ( 167 ) | Wright, Julian |
| 156.8 | ( 168 ) | Barnes, Matt |
| 157.0 | ( 169 ) | Blatche, Andray |
| 157.1 | ( 170 ) | Outlaw, Travis |
| 157.2 | ( 171 ) | Thabeet, Hasheem |
| 157.5 | ( 172 ) | Hill, Jordan |
| 157.5 | ( 173 ) | Przybilla, Joel |
| 157.6 | ( 174 ) | Parker, Anthony |
| 157.8 | ( 175 ) | Krstic, Nenad |
| 157.8 | ( 176 ) | Landry, Carl |
| 158.3 | ( 177 ) | Alston, Rafer |
| 158.5 | ( 178 ) | Bayless, Jerryd |
| 158.5 | ( 179 ) | Delfino, Carlos |
| 158.7 | ( 180 ) | Collison, Nick |
| 158.7 | ( 181 ) | Hughes, Larry |
| 158.8 | ( 182 ) | Bass, Brandon |
| 158.8 | ( 183 ) | Young, Nick |
| 158.9 | ( 184 ) | Bell, Raja |
| 159.0 | ( 185 ) | Frye, Channing |
| 159.4 | ( 186 ) | Holiday, Jrue |
| 159.5 | ( 187 ) | Richardson, Quentin |
| 159.5 | ( 188 ) | Douglas-Roberts, Chris |
| 159.6 | ( 189 ) | Udrih, Beno |
| 159.8 | ( 190 ) | Batum, Nicolas |
| 159.9 | ( 191 ) | Mason, Roger |
| 160.1 | ( 192 ) | Dampier, Erick |
| 160.2 | ( 193 ) | Wilcox, Chris |
| 160.3 | ( 194 ) | Ellington, Wayne |
| 160.3 | ( 195 ) | Lopez, Robin |
| 160.4 | ( 196 ) | Kapono, Jason |
| 160.5 | ( 197 ) | McGuire, Dominic |
| 160.5 | ( 198 ) | Davis, Glen |
| 160.6 | ( 199 ) | Ridnour, Luke |
| 160.7 | ( 200 ) | Mbah a Moute, Luc Richard |
| 160.8 | ( 201 ) | Gooden, Drew |
| 160.8 | ( 202 ) | Andersen, David |
| 160.9 | ( 203 ) | Webster, Martell |
| 161.0 | ( 204 ) | Livingston, Shaun |
| 161.0 | ( 205 ) | Fisher, Derek |
| 161.1 | ( 206 ) | Brown, Shannon |
| 161.1 | ( 207 ) | Williams, Terrence |
| 161.2 | ( 208 ) | Kleiza, Linas |
| 161.3 | ( 209 ) | Lowry, Kyle |
| 161.4 | ( 210 ) | Pietrus, Mickael |
| 161.4 | ( 211 ) | Rubio, Ricky |
| 161.5 | ( 212 ) | Rodriguez, Sergio |
| 161.6 | ( 213 ) | Sefolosha, Thabo |
| 161.6 | ( 214 ) | Wright, Brandan |
| 161.8 | ( 215 ) | Barea, Jose Juan |
| 162.1 | ( 216 ) | Wright, Antoine |
| 162.2 | ( 217 ) | Gortat, Marcin |
| 162.3 | ( 218 ) | Korver, Kyle |
| 162.4 | ( 219 ) | Maxiell, Jason |
| 162.5 | ( 220 ) | Butler, Rasual |
| 162.5 | ( 221 ) | Smith, Craig |
| 162.7 | ( 222 ) | Brewer, Corey |
| 162.8 | ( 223 ) | Alexander, Joe |
| 162.9 | ( 224 ) | Hansbrough, Tyler |
| 162.9 | ( 225 ) | Speights, Marreese |
| 163.0 | ( 226 ) | DeRozan, DeMar |
Is it just me, or is Deron Williams rising fast on draft charts? Can he break top 7?
if someone can justify his going 7 or 8, i’d love to hear it. i’m surprised he’s as high as he is, but technically not overly-so
It’s gotten to the point where I think he’s going almost a full round before he should. Unless he can get back to the 50% FG range and raise the 3pter to 1.2-1.3 a game, he just doesn’t have the value to go in the 1st round.
I would definitely take him at 9 because my teams are usually pretty PG-centric. I’m in a 14-team H2H league that is pretty competitive, so I usually need a top PG to make things work out.
That brings up a question of draft strategy. I’m golden if I get a top 3 pick (LBJ, CP3 or DWade). And if I get a 12-14 pick, I can grab a great big man in Round 1 and still catch a top PG (Billups, Calderone, Nash) on the snakeback.
But what are my options if I get a pick that is 4-8? I can’t grab Deron that early, which means when the draft rolls around to me again at 21-25, I’m going to be hoping that nobody has grabbed Harris (ADP 20) or Kidd (ADP 21) or I’m going to be reaching for Joe Johnson (ADP 24 and not a true PG) or Arenas (ADP 27, knee surgeries 3). In the process, I’m missing out on Iguodala, KG, Jamison, Murphy, etc.
Did I mention that I drafted Baron Davis in the first round last year?
Don’t be a one-trick pony. If you don’t think you can compete in assists without taking Deron at 9, then PUNT assists if you get a 9 pick. Your team will thank you for not leaving that much value on the table.
Draft 13 had a few missing? I logged in about 10mins before that one started to see if I could take over the AI for anyone that didnt show. Couldnt find a way to do it though. Does anyone know?
yeah at least 6 autopicks in each round. i think it was more people signed up and didn’t show up, but i could be wrong
I had to back out of that one earlier in the day – I did notice that someone moved into where I was.
I know they’re just mocks, but if you’re not going to show (for whatever reason) just back out – we’ll understand – it’s better to leave an AI than go on autopick, imo.
Calderon shouldn’t even have 4 votes yet. He’s going higher than I originally thought (the Calderon-Rondo debate seems ridiculous now), but all signs point to him having his best year to date. He might not finish in the top 10, but I’d say top 25 for sure. As far as poorest returns go, the overrated PG list should be:
D.Rose – Need to see improvement in steals and threes before I spend a 4th round pick on him.
D.Williams – #9, really? Good luck getting that kind of value from him.
J.Nelson – One good half year doesn’t make up for 4 years of disappointment. He’s a career 12.3/3.0/4.5/1.0/1.0 in 66 games a year, enough said.
J.Kidd – Barea and Beaubois should diminish value. Oh yeah, and he’s 36.
I really don’t see Calderon equaling his averages from last year, let alone exceeding them.
I am a huge Raps fan and watch all of the games, the thing they lacked last season was a creating/distributing swingman. They may have had the worst SF rotation in the league last year.
Getting Hedo is great for the team but terrible for Calderon (fantasy-wise). Hedo will have the ball in his hands a lot, maybe more than Caldy. Caldy got most of his assists off of pick-roll/pop game with Bosh the last few years. That play will be run from Hedo this year because of the match-up problems it creates, that caused major problems for Cleveland in the playoffs.
Last year the Raptors were terribly thin, Roko Ukic was their backup PG. Now they have a very capable player in Jarret Jack coming off the bench. He will surely cut into Calderon’s minutes.
All of these factors indicate that Calderon’s value should decrease, I am really surprised that he is getting drafted as high as he is in these drafts. I doubt he will be ranked in the top 30 next year. His FG% may rise marginally as will his 3′s but I see most of his other stats declining, especially his assists.
maybe calderon gets to shoot a bit more with hedo on board? he’s made 42% of his 3pta over the past two seasons, but taken just 2.6 per game. agreed though that jack’s presence makes things interesting at PG/SG and i’d add that it makes sense to think about handcuffing him to calderon
interesting results so far – seems like a lot of mixed opinions
Yeah I can see him making a bit more 3′s, much like Nelson in Orlando. He will have more open shots due to the penetration that Hedo creates. That was one of the biggest, if not the biggest problem the Raptors had last year.
I just can’t see his minutes being high enough to warrant a high draft position. He played 34 mins/game last year with an incompetent backup, that number has to go down now that Jack is in town.
Finally, another Raps fan! You’re 100% right, their lack of a good creating SF was their most glaring weakness, BUT as good a ball handler as Hedo was last year, I don’t think he will as much in TO. Calderon is more of a pass-first PG than Nelson/Alston so I think most plays are gonna start with a Calderon-Bargnani pick and roll, into Bosh and out to Hedo. Parker got a ton of open looks like that, and with Hedo taking his man to the rack instead, Calderon could get a lot of easy looks too. Without a doubt he’ll increase his scoring, and hold steady at 9 assists, with upside of 1.5 3S, 1.5 ST, 3 REB, 50% FG, 95% FT, and low TOs, I’ll take that in the second round in any format.
The way I see it is, Calderon is the man, he’s a lifer in TO. I see his minutes actually going up and Jack still finding a way to get 28. If I’m Triano, this is the year to really push Calderon and see what you got. I don’t think he’s injury prone at all, anymore, plus he sat out FIBA so he’s ready to go.
I really don’t see how he will increase his scoring…
Bargnani is improving and will demand more shots, Hedo takes more shots than all of the SF’s combined last year. I don’t think there are enough shots for him to increase his scoring, I think it is going to decrease if anything.
Also, I see no evidence why he should increase his steals to 1.5/game, he has stayed static at 1.1 the last two years. I see him averaging the same next year.
You say his minutes will increase?? Ok, so lets say that they go from 34.3 to 37, and you say that jack will get 28? So that means that jack will get 11 mins at PG and 17 at SG.
This leaves 31 mins combined for DeRozan, Belinelli and Wright (even though he will mostly play SF). I think DD and Belinelli will get more mins that that combined.
This is one of the deepest Raptors squads in recent memory and I see no reason why any of the guards should get over 34 mins/game.
Still, 12.8 is pretty low and he’s gotten better every year he’s played in the league. I can’t see him losing many minutes to DD or MB, and maybe Jack won’t play 28, but you can’t deny that Calderon is by far the best of the bunch and deserves as many minutes as he can help this team win with. Jack is good too, but clearly this is Calderon’s team and he’s capable of putting up elite PG #s. I said 1.5 steals are his upside, but I’ll even settle for 1.1. Also, as “little impact” as they might have, his FT% and AST:TO is (was) underrated. Glad he’s finally getting the respect he deserves.
A large portion of Calderon’s value comes from his percentages and low turnovers for a PG. Slightly depressed PT but better shot opportunities, especially if it upped his 3pt output, would actually probably INCREASE his value. He’d lose some assists, but with the ball in his hands less would tend to get fewer TOs as well. The spacing between league teams is MUCH wider in pts, rebounds and assists than it is in 3s and TOs, so relatively small improvements in the latter can offer larger decreases in the others.
According to BBM, Calderon’s best cat is BY FAR assists. His assists value is 2.59, his second best cat is his FT% which is 1.18 (for some reason I can not find his TO value, you know what it is?!?). It seems that losing assists would hurt his value more than anything – After all he was 4th in the league in assists.
It is all speculation at this point obviously but I don’t see him reaching 24th again, let alone justifying the 18th draft position here.
Assists is his strongest overall category, but decline in value for assists goes relatively slowly as the assists drop. Going by per-game numbers, his 8.9 was worth 2.73. If he dropped all the way down to around 7 assists per game (a VERY steep decline), it’d cost him around 0.9 in value. A drop from 8.9 to 8.2 would cost him around 0.3.
3s increasing from 1.2 to 1.5 would cancel out that 2nd drop all by itself. TOs dropping from 2.1 to 1.9 pretty much would also.
His actual TO value is -0.26 on BBM. But that gives him roughly a 1.4-2.0 point advantage over the 3 guards with higher assist totals in the cat, while their extra assists only give them 0.8-1.0 back.
Very good points Goob. I personally think some of those predictions are spot on.
Pts – Decrease marginally
rebs – Decrease marginally
assists – Decrease by about 1/game
steals – decrease marginally
blocks – N/A
FG % – increase marginally
FT % – decrease marginally
TO’s – decrease to 1.9
3′s – increase to 1.5
That is how I see his stats changing this upcoming season.
Just wondering, how did you get the TO value on BBM? When I click on a players name it just gives me values for 8-cats.
Have to go into League Settings and click Turnovers, then save it. If you’re not a member, you have to do that every time, though. If you ARE a member, you can save different settings as different leagues and pop up the one you want with the drop-down at the top.
Could even get a steeper drop in TOs. Year before last, when he averaged 30 mpg, his TO rate was only 1.5. Granted, for a good portion of that season he was backing up Ford and playing against a lot of 2nd squad players, but his career A/TO ratio is around 5.
Yeah I could see that happening if he plays 30 mins, that will also mean a decrease across the board in most other categories though.
The funny thing is he is criticized for his lack of risk taking in Toronto, but praised for it in fantasyland because of the TO rate.
Yeah, RL and fantasy scoring are frequently at odds. I made a post further down about some of the multi-position players that set the two at odds, but there are plenty of others. Bruce Bowen in his prime was an absolute monster on the court, but utterly useless as a fantasy player.
I think those factors are already accounted for in Kidd’s ADP. After all, where did he finish last year? Like 10th?
ditto for Nelson.
If Murphy can continue his big year, why not Nelson?
Those are good points, and I don’t doubt that both could earn their ADPs, I just think it’s ‘more’ likely they won’t compared to those other guys. I’ve seen Nelson go in the third round, no thanks. And isn’t it funny that Kidd is just behind Harris? I’ll side with Vandeweghe.
Well, barring a catastrophic early season injury to either, I don’t think they belong in a list with Deron. Williams simply has a ZERO percent chance of cracking the top 10 in value this year. He has more or less incrementally improved each year in value(although actually last year was a slight step BACK in value in my mind, that drop in FG% more than offsets the small increases in scoring and assists), but he has yet to even achieve 2nd round performance. I can’t see any justification at ALL for believing he’s going to suddenly to leap forward a round and a half, ESPECIALLY considering that his team situation is pretty much identical to prior years.
hey buser, i appreciate the adp…mustve been hard to put all that together, but is their anyway u can separate the h2h and the roto adps?? makes a difference
not really hard, but maybe somewhat tedious. worth it, though. and you can sort the “h2h” and “roto” columns separately on the google doc. once we log more mocks, maybe i can start posting different ADP columns
I wouldnt worry about it, there isn’t all that much difference. I just had a quick comparison of the roto and h2h ADP’s. There were only about 20 players who had a difference of more than 10 places. I then compared these differences to the std, which were usually also large. So a large difference for a given player is probably better explained by natural variation than format bias.
Curiously, the one player that should have a large difference- Dwight- has a modest difference of 5 spots. That just shows there is always at least 1 numbskull in these mocks.
Hey – don’t look at me! I take Duncan in the 2nd, remember?
Interesting poll concerning the ROI of PGs.
To me, I believe the answer is pretty clear cut. No way should Jameer be taken at or near 42. Despite a solid per game stat line last year, he missed a lot of time and his career numbers haven’t proven that he’s a ’round +’ above other PGs like Mo Williams (56.4) and Tony Parker (56.8). I value Nelson slightly behind these PGs and ahead of Andre Miller.
Say what you will about the weaknesses of D Rose, I feel that an ADP of 45 is legit for the type of upside he can provide going into his sophomore season.
Yeah I will be staying the hell away from Nelson this year, someone else is going to take him there or even earlier based on his stats from last year. It is unknown how the arrival of VC will impact him. 3/4 of a year of good stats just isn’t enough for me to be sold on him… yet.
With Rose it is hard to say, I will probably let someone else draft him as well, he just doesn’t give the steals and 3′s you would want out of a PG drafted that early. You never know, he may drastically improve (not unheard of from 1st year to 2nd) and exceed his draft position. Until he shows he can make 3′s and steal the ball consistently I doubt I will draft him though.
I am really high on Nash this year, it seems like he is forgotten about in fantasy circles. He was ranked 12th last year after Gentry took over and that was with Shaq in the lineup. A return to the SSOL offense could give him first round value. Coincidentally, I am high on Barbosa and J-Rich as well.
Nash forgotten about? ADP of 17 here!
Forgotten was a terrible word to use! Ahaha
I see Nash being the third best pg this year, I think he will have equal or greater value than Deron. Taken 8 picks later is a bonus.
A return to his 07-08 numbers could be had, he was ranked as the 4th PG that year, Baron was ahead of him… I don’t see happening ever again.
In some of the drafts he is taken as the 6th PG behind; CP3, Deron, Jose, Billups and Harris.
I think you’re missing part of the point. As you get lower in the player rankings, the value difference between players gets MUCH smaller.
Going by basketball monster’s value ratings, the difference between the 42nd best player (per game value) and the 60th best player is almost exactly the same as the difference between the 20th (around where I think Deron SHOULD be selected) and the 9th (where we’ve been averaging him). Jameer demonstrated over most of a season that he CAN produce at 2nd round value. He’s certainly not assured of repeating it, but we’ve seen him do it once at least. Deron has NOT produced at that level yet, and still people are taking him in the 1st. Ridiculous.
People are sleeping on D-Will and D-Rose. D-Will has CP3’s 20-10, excellent percentages, a bit more threes, minus the monster steals. If you don’t want to build a team around that, add in the factor Jazz could be fighting for playoff positioning or perhaps a playoff spot IMO in the Wild Wild West (watch out for OKC), which could mean more run for him, then I will. As for D-Rose, this kid has pure talent, intangibles, you name it. More D-Rose for me as well. In the voting booth, I voted against Arenas aka Hibachi aka Agent Zero. 3 surgeries in 2 years just scares the bleep out of me.
As for the recent ADP, Pau missing from the 1st round w/ his efficiency and his consistency is quite crazy. But then again, it could be my L.A. bias talking. I say knock down Dwight b/c of his atrocious FT. AR 6th round is kind of crazy. Let’s hope he doesn’t disappoint. Sheed could still be solid if he gets 7 REB, 1 3/ST/BLK, which is definitely possible. Iverson at 10th is kind of crazy too. He’s a Hall of Fame candidate, and I really believe he will be employed come October. Lou Williams is a steal that late too. He will kill your FG, but will have a career year given starter’s minutes and Iggy playmaking. McDyess is a solid big as well and should be ranked higher. Anything past 156, good luck hardcore managers, that is uncharted territory for me.
Goob: punting AST is madness
Warno: never saw you before, and never saw the analysis on Jose Manuel Calderon before…impressive. As for Nash being better than Billups, perhaps. He has better FG, lesser FT impact due to lesser FTA, lesser PTS, more AST, less ST. Personally, I’d prefer Billups and his AST/ST/3PM combo and get a big who could compensate FG.
CP3>Deron>Billups>Nash>Harris>Calderon
Cap: It’s Bosh’s team
Westerun: a fellolw D-Rose fan, how ya doin’?
Deron is roughly equal to Paul in scoring and assists (but worse at both). He’s lower in both FG% and FT%. Slight edge in 3s and blocks. About half as many rebounds, way under half as many steals, and turns the ball over significantly more. There’s not much sense in even comparing the two. Deron will likely be the 4th or 5th ranked actual point guard this year (and could be lower), and probably 2 spots worse if you count others that are qualified at PG.
And what makes punting assists madness? It’s actually a very good candidate for punting if you grab a pair of high FT% big men early. 3 assists per game played is around middle of the pack for a team. 4 is phenomenal. Yet, there are very few players that get 30+ minutes per game that don’t manage to average at least 1. Most that have any hands at all will get 2. Grab an efficiency point like Terry and add, say Nate Robinson for a backup. No big assist people at all, and you’re still probably going to average around 2.5 per game and will luck into some wins against teams that are only average in the cat.
Legitimate argument there. However, I believe more success is to be had building w/ PG’s and bigs, as it has worked for me. But heck, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Shawn Marion’s jumper for example…
But… It’s broken??
“Never saw you before”
- Yeah I just joined here, seems like a good place to talk fantasy ball.
Anyways, I think Billups will be ahead of Nash by the end of the year, only by a few spots though. I think Deron and Nash will be very close this upcoming year. I just don’t see any evidence on why Deron should improve so much more? Fighting for playoffs or positioning? He has been in that situation his whole career.
CP3 >>>>>> Billups >> Nash/Deron
I think the whole key to this pole is the phrase “poorest return on investment”.
I voted for Deron Williams, because I believe that where he has been going, I think one would get the “poorest return on investment”. All the other point guards on that list are either at or under valued, and would be great picks where they are. I just think Deron is getting bumped up a bit too high. But that doesn’t mean he won’t get his numbers. Doesn’t mean I wouldn’t take him. What it means is I don’t think he warrants #9 overall value (a comment made by a few here so far). I think he’s more borderline 1st/2nd pick (a great candidate for NCSU86‘s snakeback strategy at 12-14). I think he pushes or plays over #20 value – which puts him on the fence between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
But really, when you think about it, this debate is like saying here’s a Ferrari and here’s a Porsche, both which cost $50,000, but the Porsche may not be worth the value. Hey – it’s still a Porsche! You’re still getting a top of the line performance car with high quality to boot. And the fact of the matter is, there’s still some guy out there willing to shell out good money for it.
I think that’s what we have here – people willing to pay a premium for Deron knowing what they got, as opposed to speculating on value, or in this case “poorest return on investment”. They’re simply buying the Porsche cause they want it.
Now, if they want to mortgage the rest of the house to do it, c’est la vie!
I would not say that all of them are undervalued or even.
Calderon at 16.8 is a reach (Ranked 24th last year).
Rose at 45 is a huge reach (Ranked 125th last year).
The only one to be that looks undervalued is Kidd, CP3 is to an extent I guess I should say. Have to take him ahead of LBJ.
Not too sure how I feel about Gilbert at 27 either, I can understand the risk-reward strategy but I just couldn’t pull the trigger that early on him. I usually like to take one risk a draft but not in the third round where there is still great value.
Rose is as high as he is because, for the last month of last season, when he was getting consistently high-30s minutes, he was clocking in at roughly top-50 value. The optimists are carrying forward from that point. The pessimists are reining back from that a bit and thinking more 6th round. Anyone that’s thinking around 100 for him is kinda loopy, even though it’s possible they’re correct.
Someone, perhaps you, was making similar comments about Anthony Randolph. In his case, in the last month, while only getting on average 28 minutes per game, he was giving top-50 value. Trying to divine how Nelson will allocate PT is an exercise in futility, but his style of play is a goldmine for fantasy purposes. If Randolph can come away with consistent 30+ minutes it’s not unreasonable to expect at least 3rd/4th round value. Anytime you can get that with a pick in the 70s, you take it.
Sorry, pick in the 60s. Was only half paying attention while I was typing
Nope, never mentioned anything about AR. I like him a lot this season, personally I think he will go early 60′s… maybe even late 50′s. Someone is going to reach for him. It may pay off, it may not. He has the potential to have good value there though.
Well I know Rose won’t end up 125th again, I was just making my point more influential. Haha
I think most people are looking at his playoff numbers (which were unreal) and expecting that. I think he averaged around 20/6/6/50%/80%, then again I think his TO rate was terrible but I would have to double check.
I am always flip-flopping with him, I like his potential but I hate making picks hoping for potential. Then again, I think most players make their biggest jump in production from year 1 to 2.
Playoffs schmayoffs. For the last 14 games of the regular season, his numbers were:
54.1%, 76.6%, 0.0, 18.6, 5.0, 7.0, 0.7. 0.4, 2.2
Now, I gag as much as the next guy at seeing a point guard that can’t shoot 3s or steal the ball, but as a whole the other numbers were pretty damned impressive, especially for a rook. It carried through into the playoffs as well, adding more credence to the performance level. I’m going to be watching the preseason reports out of Chicago VERY carefully. If I see convincing evidence that his purported work on his outside shot has helped then I’ll definitely be looking for him in the 4th. For now, I’m leaning more towards mid-5th or so.
Warno: “The only one to be that looks undervalued is Kidd, CP3 is to an extent I guess I should say. Have to take him ahead of LBJ.”
CP3 is undervalued? At #1 overall?!? Even the older version of the ADP Report had CP3 at #1. Which list are you referring to where LBJ’s ranked #1?
I’ll give you Rose as a reach because of your “potential” argument. But I’m not seeing it so much with Calderon. From 24th last year to 16th this year is not much of a reach in my mind. What I DO agree with is that both Nash and Kidd should probably be up higher on that list, maybe even ahead of Calderon. Even if you adjusted for that, though, Calderon at 18 or 19 works for me.
Well I was joking when I said that about CP3, although a few people selected LBJ first in these mocks.
Of you scroll up a bit I explain why Calderon should not be picked so high, I doubt he reaches the same spot he did last year.
I think too many people are banking on a big rankings jump for Rose. The 3PM/STL totals are way too low for a PG and the TO count is too high. If Rose starts jacking up and making more 3′s, then his FG % will suffer greatly. The assists are obviously nice but we’re not talking about someone averaging in the 8-10 APG range.
People get too caught up in the glamor stats of Points, Boards, & Assists. A 20pt/7ast/5rbd line is great but you need contributions in the other areas as well and Rose’s 3PM/STL #’s are not going to cut it at pick 43. Mark my words, his own teammate Salmons (undervalued and going some 30 picks later at #74) will outperform Rose in the rankings this year.
I love Salmons this year, he is a great roto player. He is like a Brandon Roy lite but with more 3′s. I don’t see his stats changing too much though. Yes Gordon is gone but I see his shots being distributed throughout the team, mainly to Deng, and to a lesser extent Rose. Deng and Salmons only played 7 games together last year so it is hard to gauge how well they will mesh.
Irregardles Salmons will be the go-to swingman and average about 38 mins/game I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the season ranked around 45th, which would greatly exceed his draft position.
Looking at the list again it seems that KG is a little late that that Caron is too early… at least for me it seems that way.
KG was ranked 9th with averages and Jefferson was ranked 8th. They are both coming of knee surgeries. While Jefferson is much younger and should be able to recover more quickly from his injury his troubling past scares me. I don’t know if I want anything to do with him. KG has his age against him but he works out like a fiend, I like him a bit earlier (around 20).
Same goes for Caron, yes his averages look amazing but how will his totals look at the end of the year? He has only played in 63 games/year over the last 3 years. I will not be drafting him in the mid-second round. Then you have to factor in the re-arrival of Arenas, just too many things working against him to justify being taken that early.
Also what is with Amare being taken ahead of Dirk??
The top 7 should be set in stone:
CP3, LBJ, Wade, (Any combination of Kobe, Durant, Granger, Dirk). After the 7th pick is where the draft really begins.
I agree with that Top 7 analysis, and the order. Granger bothers me because the Pacers rarely play on days when only a few teams are playing, so you don’t get the extra games-played each week that you might get from a Kobe or LeBron, where they are playing on days when there are 5 games or less on the schedule. CP3 and, to a lesser extent, Durant, have that problem as well, but their overall ability and lack of knee problems make up for it.
But I am also willing to lock Amare in at #8, meaning the draft questions really start at #9 for me. A return to the uptempo style and no Shaq make for a great season for Amare, in my opinion. I can’t see passing on him at #8 and he went either 5 or 6 in the mock I participated in over the weekend. So for me the questions start at #9 with the following guys competing for my attention: D-Will, Bosh, Roy, Dwight Howard, Gasol and Jefferson.
I usually go after FT% pretty hard, so Howard and Jefferson are out. For some reason, I cannot get excited about Brandon Roy, especially with a worsening glut of guards in Portland. So it’s probably D-Will or Gasol for me. Somebody help me understand all the love for Roy.
Compared against the approximate averages (per total games played) you need to finish 4th in each category, Roy is above average in 7 out of 9. The two he’s NOT above average in, rebounds and blocks, he’s quite good in for a guard. So, while not really being exceptional in any category, he’s a true 9-category producer. As opposed to Deron, who has ONE exceptional category but only produces well in 5 or 6.
If Granger is still on the board at #7 you HAVE to take him, he is a great value there.
In draft #11, Caron was drafted around 10 but actually it was a mistake only. The manager said he wanted to pick Gasol.
Okay for what it’s worth (which is not much, cuz I’m no expert), here is my view on the Deron Williams issue. First off, I am one who will usually grab Deron before some people feel he should be. Now, I’m not going to draft him over Paul, Lebron, Wade, Granger, Kobe, or Durant. But I may grab him over Dirk if I am sticking with my normal game plan. I play a lot of head to head leagues and I have a strategy and a system that has won me about 20 championships and numerous second and third places. Deron fits that plan perfectly. I know exactly how to build around him starting at the draft, and I know exactly how to trade post draft to take care of any hiccups. And that is the main point, it is about your personal strategy and playing your game. There has been numerous people who have scoffed at my picking of Williams when I do, and funny enough I always destroy those people when I’m up against them. I understand picking for value, but if you don’t understand the dynamics of picking your players within a certain system to attack certain categories, you won’t win. Picking what is considered to be the value pick at the time can actually hurt you in a lot of ways, especially if you get overstocked with the same kind of players and can’t get anyone to trade with you. My strategy is built upon point guards and players, especially big men, that give me guard type stats and don’t commit a lot of turnovers. Let me also say that I play in a lot of leagues on yahoo where people use assist to turnover ratio as a stat and not just straight turnovers which also makes D. Will more appealing. I usually don’t worry about fg%, or blks. Therefore, big men like Troy Murphy, Andrea Bargnani, Mehment Okur, and Boris Diaw are right up my alley. I will always try to get two or three big men of this kind, but will also get two players like Milsap, Okafor, Love, or Randolph to make sure I am still very aggressive in rebounds. There are other dynamics involved, but with the kind of teams I build, I will usually go into each week knowing I have all the guard cats dominated and I will usually beat most people in rebounds. And when I don’t win rebounds, the person I am playing with usually only wins that, fg% and blocks, and I kill them in every other stat. The last thing that I have come to understand about drafting, which makes me not question picking Deron early is that when it comes to value picking, the most important picks of the draft are in the second half. I guarantee that if you look at who wins championships in Fantasy Basketball, especially in head to head, it is the owner who had the best 6-7 picks at the end of the draft. I am usually always one of those people. So where as a lot of people may be super strong in the first half and super weak to weak in the second half. I am usually pretty strong in the first half and very strong in the second half. So besides my overall team strategy, the depth of my team usually overwhelms others, because while they have guys getting 10-15 min of play time as their reserve picks, I’ll have people that were slept on and are now starters getting 30+minutes as my reserves. I’ve been able to do that time and time again, and when you are able to do that, picking Deron early is perfectly fine. Until that becomes a problem or until D. Will starts sucking it up, I will continue to have him as a big part of my plans whenever I can.
Now let me say this, D. Will is only ok that early in head to head leagues, and more specifically, in ones where a/t is the stat and not turnovers. In roto, I would definitely do things different. For instance, I would pick Roy all day every day before D. Will in roto. I would also not pass up Dirk for D. Will in roto either.
I’m curious. Do those leagues use A/T as a replacement for both stats, or are assists still a separate category? If assists count in two cats, my first thought is “yuck”…unless, perhaps, you also use jumper cats (OReb, DReb, TReb) to stop the entire setup from being guard-centric, which WOULD heavily skew draft positions.
With A/T replacing TO and the rest of the cats unchanged, sure, Williams was 4th overall on per-game averages. But then, Kidd, Billups, Calderon and Nash are all top-10 as well. Adding in Oreb, Dreb would move him to 19th…and David Lee 11th. With A/T replacing both assists and TOs, Deron came out 11th. In all 4 scoring formats (default and these three), the top 3 was Paul, Lebron, Wade in order.
Assists are a seperate category, but a lot of them do have oReb too.
Amen. Kind of looks like a dissertation, but I catch your drift. I don’t plan to punt BLK, though. Dirk>Deron>Roy
And I thought some of my posts were long-winded…..
I’ll sum this up very quickly, Deron will not outperform his ADP of 9. The TO are too high and the 3PM/STL are good but by no means great. Bosh, Roy, Gasol, & Billups are all safer picks.
Yes, I was definitely a little long winded there. Sorry about that. I guess my view is just different all together. I’m not worried about where he performs based on where I draft him, and that goes for any other player I draft. What is important, is how he fits in with the system that I am going for. I’ve seen teams with great players on them but when it comes to the stats and fantasy, they just don’t go together. I guess it’s hard to explain, but I think value, ADP, and all that biz is a little overrated. I’ve been in leagues where the guys obviously know that stuff and swear by it, but I beat them. It’s all in how you build your team from pick one all the way to the final one. Hell, what do i know though. All I can say is that my general philosophy has worked thus far. I really would like to play in a head to head league up against the players here, who I definitely respect as savy people. Perhaps, I will find a flaw in the way i’ve been doing things.
“I’m not worried about where he performs based on where I draft him”
Like I said in my other post – you’re just buying the Porsche!
I get the idea of having a plan and sticking with it. And if you’re winning, more power to you. Just keep in mind that there are others on this site who have similar stories as yours (winning their leagues with certain draft strategies), yet have gone about it a totally different way.
But I get from your last post that you have the right attitude towards things and are looking forward to the competition. And you may or may not find a flaw in your strategy – bottom line is to be open-minded and adjust (if you have to).
You don’t want to be so set in your ways that you go and do something rash like take Tim Duncan in the 2nd round of EVERY mock draft you’re in, you know?
Oh…wait…that was me.
Never mind…
Lol at the Duncan thing. But yeah I definitely agree with you. You can definitely win with different strategies. That’s why I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing to pick people a little early sometimes if you have a system that works for you. Now if someone picks up someone like Thadeus Young in the first round, there’s a problem. True story though- I was in a stupid league a while ago and some guy picked Duncan in the first round. The big problem with that is that he had the first overall pick. So taking him in the second round everytime isn’t that bad. LOL.
Usually I never have 1 set strategy going into a draft. I find it can back you into a corner. What if you have one or two other guys in your draft want to do the exact same thing as you? If they keep taking the guys you have your eye on, your draft plan may fall apart and you are left with a team that has no direction.
Aside from that, it seems like it would get boring using the same strategy every year and having the same players. The last two years in my H2H league I have punted FT% and 3′s (getting guards like Rondo, Tony P are perfect for this). I finished 2nd last year and 1st this year. Personally I am excited to use a new strategy and having a different looking team.
I think you have to take the BPA in the first rounds and build around their stregths/weaknesses.
Pretty much any kind of strategy in H2H if thought out a bit, will work. I’ve tanked a combination of stats at points throughout the years that I didn’t even think possible, but based on draft position and player available, it ends up working out.
Going small and drafting centers who are weak on blocks is one of the most common H2H strategies. As you suggested and others, Murphy, Okur, Bargs, Diaw, Lee, Boozer, Harrington and even Brad Miller can help in this type of strategy.
I think the part you’re glossing over, is that you’re playing people who aren’t strategizing, which is why your strategy, excellent or flawed is working. Even in competitive leagues people treat H2H too much like Roto. Heck, Buser ran a poll that suggested the same thing. People don’t feel comfortable tanking cats even though that’s exactly what they should do.
Theoretically with 21 regular season weeks in H2H, tanking 3 of 9 cats would give you a winning percentage of .667, which is not only a playoff team, but probably the #1 seed. To the extreme tanking 4 of 9 cats would give you a winning percentage of .556, which is a playoff team with essentially a zero percent chance of losing in the playoffs assuming you drafted correctly and effectively.
But, only 2% of people in Buser’s poll said they would tank 3 cats and 3% said they would tank 4, meaning 95% of the teams you play should get beat in a H2H match-up with a tanking team of 3 or 4 cats.
The caveat to all of this is maximizing value to the extreme. If I tank boards, blocks, and FG% for example and two other teams are tanking blocks in a similar context (one team tanking FG% and blocks, another steals and blocks maybe), then I need to make sure that I have little or no chance at losing point, assists, steals, threes, TOs, and threes when I play these two teams.
The first rounders usually aren’t as important IMO when tanking cats. It’s capitalizing on guys like Nate Robinson, Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, Gino, Gordon, Stojakovic, etc who drastically increase value when tanking boards, blocks, and FG% that are key to winning.
I’ll also admit I usually allow my draft position, which in turn is my first and second round picks, determine my H2H strategy. Being flexible is crucial in competitive H2H leagues.
I am surprised that people are picking Amare over Dirk.
Dirk is an Ironman averaging 79 games/year over the last 10 years. He helps in every cat and can play the C position (Great if you want to punt blocks but you don’t have to). He was 6th ranked last year. I think you could make an argument for each of the 4-7 guys (Kobe, Durant, Granger, Dirk) to go at 4. To take Amare ahead of Dirk seems crazy to me.
I am a little concerned that the addition of Marion and the return of a supposedly healthy Josh Howard will result in fewer touches for Dirk, whereas Amare will probably be able to shoot as much as he possibly can this season. Plus, Amare has C elegibility, great percentages, rebounds, blocks and also gets steals, I think. Dirk is pretty low on the steals and blocks and has shot fewer and fewer 3s over the years, as I recall.
Question: Any chance of Dirk ever getting F/C status in Yahoo! league? If so, I would elevate him back ahead of Amare.
I think the Marion acquisition will not hurt Dirk, I think it may actually help him. Marion does not take that many shots at all, he thrives off of fast break points, 2nd chance opportunities and broken plays. Dirk is still the first option, his points may dip a bit but not enough to hurt him. I see Marion’s arrival hurting Howard more than anybody.
I can see the Mavs playing a bit smaller with a lineup of: Kidd, JET, Howard, Marion & Dirk. It depends on match-ups but this is by far their best 5 man lineup and I can see them finishing games with it. If this happens Dirk will get his C eligibility back, this is worth a drop of 1 point/game or so.
Amare, Marion, and Kirilenko are all prime examples of players where the situations of RL and Fantasy basketball conflict. If they play at the upper end of their positions (Amare at C, Marion/AK47 at PF) their superior speed/athleticism lets them accrue ridiculous stat totals. However, they frequently get overpowered at the other end when they can’t come up with a block/steal, and team defense tends to suffer.
If Dallas decided to play Dirk at Center, Marion at PF, Howard at SF frequently, that would maximize offensive contributions. But they’d also probably go back to being the ‘allas Mavericks (No ‘D’). I suspect we’ll be seeing more of Marion at SF and Howard at SG, and both players have had some difficulty in the past at those positions.
Amare at 100% health versus Dirk is a fairly difficult call. Roto I’d still take Dirk due to his overall balance. Amare produces a cleaner “Big man” line though. Amare’s health is iffy though. I’m not overly worried about the knee any more, but at the very least he has to find goggles he can play in comfortably and have time to get used to them.
If guaranteed that Amare was going to be 100% this year I would take him. He is also going into a contract year which is nice (he has a PO for next year, I think he will opt out).
He is just hard to trust but I recently read a good interview with him, I know words are cheap but it is still encouraging. I wonder, as you mentioned, if he can ever adjust to his goggles. I know he had trouble doing it last year.
NBA.com:
“During a lecture with students at Martin Luther King Jr. Elementary school, Stoudemire reflected on the fact that this season may be his last as a member of the Suns. “This might be my farewell tour, huh?” Stoudemire said. “If so, I’m going out with a bang, baby.” He also commented on his legacy and the impact his recent eye surgery has had on him. “I cherish the moment,” he said. “Because I feel like if I had to retire because of the injury, how will my legacy be? Will I be a Hall of Famer? Would I have a championship? Is my legacy what I dreamed it to be? At that point of time, I’d say no. So now, I’m back with a vengeance. I want to make sure that my legacy is starting to build. It is going to start this year.”"
Want another opinion about Amare? I suggest you read this article:
http://www.basketballfreeforall.com/archives/967
It’s things like this which actually make me question more a player’s desire to put up worthy fantasy numbers.
Of course, it is a totally opposite take on Stoudemire’s situation – but we need to hear both sides of the argument before we start putting any real value on the guy.
Yeah, as a fan of the game this sort of behaviour makes me sick.
As a fantasy fan I love it, nothing better than a contract year. If I owned him this year I would hope he is out to prove that he is worth a bigger contract, why would you not? The more motivated (whether it comes from his greed or to prove others wrong) he is the better.
As a result of this attitude he could be traded, which doesn’t seem out of the question. That would no doubt hurt his fantasy value, PHX may be the best fit for him (fantasy-wise).
Why take Amare over Dirk?
It is simple. Amare logged the 2nd place in Yahoo only 2 years ago before the O’neil trade, just behind CP3. As a center, he is flawless in that season (25pt 9rb 0.8stl 2blk 59% 80.5% 2.2TO).
Need more reasons? He got plenty of rest this summer (it’s wise he abandoned last season), he plays center again, up-tempo games again, he is still at his prime (27/28), this is his contract year, his FT% is on the rise (78%->80.5%->83.5%), no competition in the front court.
Imagine a center who poses 25pt 10rb 1stl 2blk 58% 84% 2.5TO, is that a dream? NO!
Dirk is very good in roto, so-so in H2H, and he plays F only plus he is 31.
Amare is more explosive and more interesting to own. The only negative point against him this season is he might be traded.
“He plays F only plus he is 31″
I fully expect him to gain C eligibility this year. Also using the 31 years old argument is terrible, it is not THAT old.
Last year’s top 10:
at #5 Kobe – 30 years old
at #6 Dirk – 30 years old
at #9 KG – 33 years old
at #10 Kidd- 36 years old
Over the last four years Dirk has been ranked: 6th, 9th, 4th, 5th. He averaged 79.25 games/year over those last four years.
31 might not be too old but that is a concern for a gradual/sudden decline in performance. As you stated, Dirk played hard every seasons and he played for Germany in nearly every tournaments so 31 for him might equal 33 for others.
If you look at the Dallas roster, both Marion and Gooden can score and rebound, so I expect a hit, if not big, to Dirk’s overall no. though his FG% might rise a bit.
You have quoted KG here and actually, Dirk’s career is quite similar to KG. Both play 76+ games (except 1) in their early seasons. Both has similar size. But Dirk is a pure white (no racial discrimination) and played hard for his country so I suspect he is on the brink of a decline like KG did last 2 years. You can’t get more value than 5th from him this year, only lower.
That one year shouldn’t count because it was the NBA lock-out.
KG’s decline was had much more to do with joining the Celtics than with his age. While Dirk is getting older I don’t see it being an obstacle in him being an elite fantasy player, at least not yet.
I wouldn’t expect to get 5th value from him, but getting 7th-9th is very attainable.
Explain “pure white” to me again?
I don’t think “(no racial discrimination)” doesn’t quite cut it.
I mean, Manu Ginobili just turned 32, and he played his guts out for Argentina during the Olympics. Does that mean because he’s a “pure brown”, he’s on the verge of a decline as well?
I’ll admit, KG is 2 years older than Dirk. But even that doesn’t explain why he’s on the decline. Try 12 long seasons in Minnesota, 11 of which he was “the man”, averaging 38+ minutes per game. The only two seasons he didn’t do that were during his rookie year and the 98-99 lock-out season (the * championship for my Spurs).
Dirk on the other hand has only averaged 36+ minutes during 11 seasons with Dallas. Not to mention the fact that he had Steve Nash, Micheal Finley, and a slew of other talent around him at all times – now we can include Jason Kidd to that list. If you’re telling me that he’s due for a decline simply because he’s a “pure white”, I’d like to hear exactly what that means before I make a judgment call here.
Unless you’ve heard something different, Dirk and his 22.8 PPG, 47.2FG%, 87.2FT%, 8.6 REB’s, 2.7 AST’s, with .9 STL’s and 1 BLK (which are his career averages by the way!) are going no where anytime soon.
I’m not trying to play the race card with you, but I need a little bit more on this one. I’m not a Mavs fan – I’m a Spurs fan. But I call ‘em as I see ‘em!
I’d also love to hear what pure white means. And just for interest, where are you from Lionfish?
In terms of Dirk, I have no worries about his age. I’m much more concerned about age with players whose game relies on speed and athleticism. For example, once Josh Smith looses his hops, he is gonna blow. But this isnt the case for Dirk who is all about size and skill.
I am neither a white nor a black. I am a Chinese.
The term “pure white” might be too eye-catching. What I mean is simply white players. In my impression, black players are more “sturdy” than white players and have a longer player’s life. Tell me if I am wrong.
So, I expect a slightly lower mileage for Dirk than KG. The same applies to Yao, I don’t expect Yao will be able to play his best after 30.
Ginobili is a good example, as an international player, he started to have foot trouble at 31. If you ask me whether he is on the decline, I will sadly say yes he is. Never underestimate the harm brought by these international games. Dirk’s case is better than Manu because Germany team is much weaker than Argentina and he usually plays fewer games in the same tournament.
KG’s decline is partly due to the swap of teams, partly because he has already reached his limit. For Dirk, he is “moving” from a depleted Dallas team to a more talented one, so a dip is not a surprise at all.
In fantasy, people always buy the potential of the young, but the opposite just works.
OK, I admit that everything I said so far is pure guess. Buy it or not, we only trade the future, not the history.
This topic is actually about Dirk vs Amare not White vs Black. Dirk is more foreseeable and will finish this season from #5 to #10, so 7th pick is about right. But suppose both players play their best season, who will you pick? I will definitely bet on Amare, especially H2H.
As for the C-eligibility, I only see it as 50%. Dirk is not as explosive as Amare, he won’t be as effective in the offensive end. I also doubt if Dallas will play their top scorer at an unnatural position.
I know of no evidence that black players are any ‘sturdier’ than anyone else. I had a quick search for NBA player ages, and could only find a top ten oldest list for 2004/05-
Kevin Willis 42
Reggie Miller 39
Dikembe Mutombo 38
Clifford Robinson 38
Vlade Divac 37
Derrick Coleman 37
Tony Massenburg 37
Ervin Johnson 37
Scott Williams 36
Darrell Armstrong 36
So here, 1 out of the 10 is white. I dont know what % of NBA players are white, but at a guess, I wouldn’t think it is much more than 10% so this result is about what one would expect if all races were equally ‘sturdy’. I also dont know which of these players, if any, got of the bench at all during that season. But it would take more work than I’m prepared to do to find out the ages of ‘useful’ players.
How about current players? From basketball reference.com, the oldest 5 current players that I could find are:
Brent Barry and Bruce Bowen are both 38
Grant Hill, Shaq, and Kurt Thomas are all 37.
Maybe having the initials B.B is a recipe for longevity? While I may have missed someone out, this again indicates that race has little to do with it.
Incidentally, I will be heading to China next month for 5 weeks of travelling. Really looking forward to it
I admit that I have no concrete evidence at all and how I form that impression is a mystery. You may be right. But I still believe different races do have an impact on their performance on different sports.
Right now, I can’t imagine a 5’9″ Chinese jump over Howard to win the Dunk Contest. We simply have different structures, although both Chinese and African are human. The term sturdiness is not equal to longevity, it means maintaining his game level.
Anyway, welcome to China and have a nice trip!
You are right in that muscle type is genetic. There are 2 types; fast-twitch muscle and slow-twitch muscle. The fast-twitch type is better for explosive release such as when running and jumping, and this is common in the african genes- hence they are often good at running and jumping.
However, this has nothing to do with how many years a player can perform at a high level. That will have much more to do with conditioning and luck. And importantly for this discussion- when was the last time Dirk jumped over anybody? He doesnt have to. His game does not depend on great atheleticism, which is why he could potentially play at a high level for a long time.
actually, what I shud have said was the best runners and jumpers are usually geneticaly african. Not genetic africans are usually good at running and jumping. There is a subtle but important difference in those statements.
Well put. Dirk does not have to rely on freakish athleticism, whereas Amar’e does. Mark my words: Dirk will be the better player when they both finish out their careers. Dirk is a leader by example, whereas Amar’e needs Nash (I mean did you see how bad the Suns were whenever Nash had DNP’s?)
Mookie: how is Billups safer than Deron if he is older and kills your FG? He’s my boy, but Deron is better than him, albeit 3PM, no. And yes, ADP is overrated. Once the season starts, you throw all that bleep out the window.
Warno: if someone cops your strategy, pick the next best available player.
NCSU: Dirk as an F/C, I don’t see why not. Posts have hinted at a Kidd-Terry-JHo-Marion-Dirk lineup (as it is their best talent-wise), but it hampers on their interior defense. It will be interesting what rotation will regularly finish out games.
Lionfish: Um, do Stoudemire’s DNP’s ring a bell? Plus, Dirk skipped out on this year’s international play (shout-out to Mark Cuban for reserving him for fantasy), so more rest = more efficiency. The best international player to date.
So-Tex: I got your back. Ha ha, how did complexion get in the mix? I thought it didn’t matter if you were black or white? Who’s gonna wanna be startin’ somethin’? You know I’m bad! I’m bad! Jermoan!
I hope you are right about Dirk getting F/C in case I end up with him. And that definitely is the best possible Mavs line-up, with Dirk at center, Marion, etc.
But can the Mavs live without the massive contributions of Erick Dampier? (yuk, yuk, yuk).
Seriously, with Gooden now in the mix, Damp is going to be doing a lot of sitting this year, with the exception of when they play Shaq.
Does anyone know what the criteria is for a player obtaining C eligibility in Yahoo? I thought it was based on a minimum of i.e. 2 starts at C, rather then how the game finishes. If that’s the case, I can’t see Dirk ever starting at Center, with Gooden and Dampier on the roster.
There was talk of KG getting C-eligibility when he joined Boston in 07/08, but that never happened either.
As far as I remember, if he starts 5 games at the center position then he will get his C eligibility.
I thought it was based on predictions and what they do in the pre-season.
For instance, Bosh did not start 1 game at C but is listed as a F/C.
Mr GM – How is it that you’ve determined that Deron is better than Chauncy? I’m talking about fantasy stats and production here; not some arbitrary measure where I’ve just made up my mind that Chauncy is better than Deron. Let’s look at the facts (per Basketball Monster’s final season rankings based on per game stats over the last 3 years):
2006-07 Billups = 15, Williams = 66
2007-08 Billups = 11, Williams = 32
2008-09 Billups = 22, Williams = 28
Yes, Williams is trending up but Billups has been very consistent and I think he will actually improve a little on the #’s that he posted last season. He is only going to be 33 at the end of September; that’s not that old. Regardless, neither of those players deserves to be picked at #9 – especially Deron, which was the point of my original post.
Warno, you say you watch a lot of Raptors games? In 07-08, When Ford went down after that hard foul by Horford, and Calderon filled in and played big minutes the rest of the way, he was flawless. Seriously, look at his game log from Dec. 17 (when Ford went down) to the end of the season:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/gamelog?playerId=2806&year=2008
I did the math, he went:
52.5%, 93.2%, 11.7 PTS, 1.1 3S, 8.5 AST, 3.0 REB, 1.2 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.6 TO.
Those are pretty solid #s across the board, and if you see that as his ceiling then I don’t know what player you’ve been watching. He was easily the biggest all-star snub that year, and he proceeded to prove them wrong by ending the season on an incredible run of 68 assists to 1 TO.
If you don’t know what a PPR is, then read this:
http://armchairgm.wikia.com/Pure_point_rating
That year, Calderon’s PPR was second in the league only to Paul. His assist ratio (% of possessions resulting in an assist) of 43.3 was best in the league. Last year he shot 151-154 FT. There are plenty of reasons to invest a high pick on this guy. I might be a homer, but even if I wasn’t, I’d be targeting a super efficient, prototypical PG like Calderon, who’s undeniably beneficial in 7 of 9 categories, to build my team around. Not to mention his boards are right in line with Deron, Billups, Nash, and Harris.
So what’s the downside? I didn’t think he’d go this high two months ago, but I can believe it now, and I’m shocked he’s getting so many votes. Does he need to shoot 75%, 125% from the line, with a 100:1 A/T to earn all your respect?
Cap, I’m in complete agreement with you on Calderon. It’s a joke that he’s leading the poll on poorest return on ADP. He’s a 28 year old, in his prime PG, whose team has significantly improved from last year. This will definitely help his assist and 3PM #’s. Getting him near the middle of round 2 is not a reach.
I’ll be thrilled when on of the teams in my league takes Deron over Calderon. I actually hope more people start hating and take players like Nash, Butler, and Devin over him.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but I see his value diminishing this year. But then again what do I know, I only watch 80-82 Raps games a year.
I would much rather have Nash or Billups over him.
Amen. I mean we probably have already seen the highest APG out of Calderon already (unless TOR goes all GSW). There was practically no other capable ballhander aside from numero ocho. His back-ups were completely mediocre as well. Now playing alongside the versatility of Hedo and Jack, his value can only increase so much. Billups>Nash>Calderon
The top few PG rankings are up for debate obviously, but even if you think Billups and Nash are better, you can’t tell me Calderon is too far behind. It’s a very common strategy to draft a big and a PG in the few 2-3 rounds, and if you think there are many PGs better than Calderon, you’re crazy. I don’t think we’ve seen his best APG yet, he’s only 28 and has only played in the league 4 years, and he’s gotten better every year. Since when does adding better players to your team hurt your assists? Silly me, I thought it would help. If Brevin Knight can get 9.0, Calderon can get 10 or 11 sometime in his career, and he’ll be pushing harder than ever this year. Even if he doesn’t increase his assists, he was 4th in the league last year, and 1st in A/T.
Hahaha I don’t think I have ever heard anyone say, “He is only 28.”
I don’t think Calderon is that far behind though. He may be able to get to 10 but I doubt it, 11… I don’t think so. Only a handful of people have gotten over 11ast/game in NBA history: Magic, Stockton, Nash, CP3, BigO, Isiah, Nate Archibald, Kevin Johnson, Mark Jack.
Right now my rankings are:
CP3>>>>>>>>Billups>>Nash/Deron>>>Calderon>Harris/Kidd
Compared to some of these other PGs being taken in the first 5 rounds or so, 28 is young.
Billups, 32
Nash, 35
Kidd, 36
Davis, 30
Terry, 32
Miller, 33
Bibby, 31
well you brought up his age more as in inference to more upside, not relative to other PG. most players aren’t still trending upward the stats department at age 28. i don’t think he should be leading the poll, but i don’t see having hedo and jack around allowing him to improve his AST numbers
Great stuff as usual Buser. This is a great site and full of information as I prepare for the upcoming season.
I have a question. I am in an 8 team(I know) keeper where we keep 3 players. H2H cats are standard 9 minus both % for 7 cats. My keepers are:
Paul
G Wallace
Josh Smith
Most teams keep guys that score a lot and both Wallace and Smith would be considered Ave in scoring.
I am considering punting Pts. last year in this format J Kidd was top 5 take away Pts and he is #1. Other guys that I could get with my pick in round 1 and 2 (8th pick r1 and 1 r2) are Beindris and Camby. who also increase their stock w/o pts. I know there was a post a while back on punting cats but would it be a good strategy to go into the draft with that concept and make my guys as good as possible in the other 6? Thanks for the input.
Just go to basketballmonster.com and sort using your 7-cats, or 6-cats if you are punting points.
In that format CP3 was ranked #1, Wallace was ranked 12th and JSmoove was ranked 18th… So good keepers on your part. Kidd was ranked 4th.
Camby was ranked 11th but I would be weary of him this year, injuries always scare me away. Who knows how the PF/C rotation is going to look like next year, they have 3 solid guys that need time. Plus they have a great young C (DeAndre Jordan) who they might want to develop.
After your keepers I would probably go after a 3 point specialist, it looks to be the only cat you are weak in. You would have nice assists, steals and blocks with those guys. Decent rebounding. Your 3′s seem to lack, you are only getting 1.6/game between them.
thanks Warno for the info, I know I muddied the conversation by adding Kidd and Camby but they are not on my team just Smith, Paul and Wallace. I am looking at who I target in the redraft. If I were to have the philosophy of punting pts with my keepers taking Biendrens and Kidd might make some sense. just confirming….
BTW, I agree on Camby I think targeting Beidrens might be better than Camby.
I made a mistake when calculating before. I forgot to add TO’s, sorry about that.
Your keeper rankings for your 6 cats (reb, ast, stl, blk, TOs, 3′s):
CP3 – #1
Gerald – #12
Smith – #22
Kidd was ranked #2.
Biedrins is ranked 10th, Do you think you will be able to snag him with the 10th pick though? he seems like he should be gone by then.
Anyways, I think it would be best if you could get Biedrins and one of Rashard, Artest or Baron Davis. You desperately need 3′s, especially if you take Beans at 10.
you might consider punting 3ptm instead of pts? paul was 8th in the league in scoring last season…
Long time reader, first time poster
I’m in a 13 cat h2h league – standard 9 cats plus FGM, FTM, 3PT%, OREB
Given that, do you consider D12 first overall?
Logic being he’s a volume scorer at C, counting OREB doubles his impact on the boards, and 13 cats mean you almost have to consider a punt somewhere…
Thoughts?
yep, I have some thoughts. The first is that this is a horrible collection of categories; double counting almost everything. But, if it makes you guys happy, its all good. Second, even with 9 cats you almost have to consider punting.
To answer your question on Dwight- if you ignore FT%, yes he is 1st overall. If you dont he’s 9th. You can do these rankings yourself at basketballmonster.com
3s count in 3s, 3%, FG%, FGM, and pts. Yuck
LOL, agree it’s not for everyone…Mainly testing my thinking that these settings encourage taking Dwight even higher than if you play the standard 9 cats. Think you concede FT % straight away if you land Dwight, and then consider punting AST. Maybe big again (Duncan?) in Round 2, looking for guys like Jamison and Jet later on to make it work
A case could be made for it, primarily if you intended to punt FT%/3s/TO, take a ton of people that don’t shoot 3s at all and one or two players that take a few at 40%+. He’s not really a volume shooter, since 1/3 of his points come from FTs. FTM and Ored are the only ones of those 4 he’s very good at.
ive enjoyed reading the dicussion on the pg thing with calderon v billups and other pgs… as i hold both of them in my 12 team h2h keeper league along with gasol and murphy. that gives me gasol (13) billups (15) calderon (16) and murphy (26) on the adp so far. thats 4 picks in the top 2 and a bit rounds. (i also had yao but thats not really looking so flash right now in a keeper…)
so having these 4 players whats the first thing that jumped to mind for you guys?? go for 3pt shooting big men?? ignore steals and blocks?? seal up rebounds, ast and %’s???
with my 4 im a bit short on points but have a foundation for strength where other teams may not…i know ive asked a similar question before just asking how everyone is seeing it now. what would you do?? just to make it clear… all the available players are not known yet and ill be picking late as i won it last year from the 3rd seed.
love to hear what you guys think! thanks in advance.
I’d probably just punt blocks and ignore steals (they might turn out okay depending on who falls to you). Look for good percentage guys like Terry, Salmons, Hill, maybe Zach Randolph that other teams might be undervaluing.