If you’ve been hanging around this site or have been reading my work for long enough, you know how much of a fan I am of Basketball Monster, or BBM as it’s affectionately known. I’m pleased to announce that the good folks at BBM have graciously offered a discount membership to busersports users. All you have to do is click this link and the regular $24.95 season rate will be reduced to $17.95. Here’s a sampling of what a membership gets you:
* In-Season Projections – View updated rankings throughout the season.
* Weekly Projections – View projections for the upcoming week.
* Team Players – Store your league teams and players.
* Advanced Team Analysis – Analyze your team based on projected rankings.
* Advanced Trade Analysis – Analyze trades based on projected rankings.
* Head-to-Head Tools – Plan and track your head-to-head matchups.
* Fantasy Boxscores – View boxscores from a fantasy-perspective.
* Advanced Schedule Grid – Analyze each team’s remaining schedule.
I strongly encourage you to take advantage of this offer, as BBM has been a resource that I’ve personally not been able to do without for a number of seasons.
I’ve got something of a catch-all post on Roto Arcade in advance of opening night, highlighting a number of status updates and discussing a few position battles.
Were in the thick of the big push for drafts, with the regular season starting on Tuesday. Below are some links to help you with final draft prep or during the draft itself:
We’re approaching the final weekend before the NBA regular season tips off, meaning there will be a flurry of draft activity in the coming days. With that in mind, let’s take a look at percent-owned numbers in Yahoo! leagues as of 10/21 and identify immediate pick-ups to to consider, as well as last-round notables and Watch List recommendations.
The Best of What’s Left- players currently rostered in 60% of leagues or less
D.J. Augustin (CHA – PG,SG) 55% owned
The news of Raja Bell’s injury should have sent you immediately to the wire to scan for Augustin. If you haven’t previously, then go take a look now… Bell’s misfortune means great things for Augustin’s fantasy impact, whether he starts or not. In the 24 games where he saw at least 30 minutes as a rookie, he averaged 16.5 points on 43 percent shooting, 2.2 threes, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 4.3 free throw attempts (while shooting 92%). I’d easily roster Augustin over Jamal Crawford, who is currently 84-percent owned.
Anthony Morrow (GSW – SG,SF) 35% owned Don Nelson is leaning towards giving a starting gig (SG) to Morrow, and efficient volume offense would no doubt be the result of such a move. In his 17 starts as a rookie last season, he averaged 16.7 points on 48 percent shooting, 2.2 threes, 4.6 boards, 1.1 steals, and just 1.4 turnovers in 35 minutes. The typical disclaimer regarding Nellie’s whims applies here, but his stellar preseason production (20.3 points, 3.3 treys, percentages of 56/54/96) should help inspire some confidence. I’d roster him well ahead of someone like Peja Stojakovic (76% owned).
Channing Frye (PHO – PF,C) 31% owned
So let me get this straight – a three-point shooting center that has been named the starter in the Suns’ run-and-gun system is owned in just over a quarter of leagues? Move quickly in the event that he’s currently available in your league… Frye has made half of his threes in the preseason (1.9 makes per game) and chipped in 12.7 points, 4.4 boards, and 1.2 steals-plus-blocks in 26 minutes per game. His situation alone means you should roster him now and see what happens later.
Yi Jianlian (NJN – PF) 50% owned I can’t necessarily blame you for being scared of Yi’s career shooting percentage of 40 percent. What you need to be aware of, however, is that efforts over the summer to improve his post game and keep him closer to the basket appear to be manifesting themselves in his preseason performance. He’s attempted just two threes in five games, helping his shooting percentage stay at a relatively-high 47 percent, and his averages in 25 minutes aren’t too shabby (11.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks). You want growth potential at the end of your bench, and Yi offers exactly that, as the Nets want nothing more than for him to succeed.
Categorically Speaking
Things like position primers, Yahoo! O-Ranks, and various general rankings lists can give you an idea of how impactful a player will be “in general”. That starts to change – a little or a lot, depending on the player – when you remove any single stat category from consideration. Let’s take a look at the movers and shakers that result from the various team-building scenarios.
Note: this is a good time to throw this wrinkle in. When it comes to h2h, I generally ignore TO for the most part. It’s a category that tends to be decided as much by the number of player games than the quality of the players in the matchup, so it’s easy to over-emphasize it. You’ll notice that I did not say that I ignore TO completely. What I do is not that a player like Corey Maggette averages about as many as Joe Johnson – in relation to their overall lines, Maggette’s turnovers are much “worse” and he gets de-valued accordingly.
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The first scenario we’ll look at is the Dwight Howard strategy. If you draft him in the first, then you punt FT% – it’s pretty simple. So who else gets an unusually large boost as you move through the draft when you punt FT%?
* Jason Kidd – technically he’s not a bad foul shooter, but he gets to the line so little that it has almost no affect on his fantasy impact; very solid pairing, but be sure to address scoring moving forward
* Andre Iguodala – not a massive boost but if Josh Smith will last until the third, you can take AI2 in the second to get very good assists and steals
* Josh Smith – remove FT% from his line last season and he still delivered a second-round per-game impact. I don’t have a problem with taking him in Rd 2 for these purposes if you don’t think he’ll last until your third pick.
* Tim Duncan – I’m down on him this season, in general, but he’s not completely going away and is a career 69-percent shooter.
* Rajon Rondo – not a lot of PG that fit this strategy so well, so I don’t mind a Round 3 reach, but in a perfect world he’s your Round 4 pick
* Andris Biedrins/Emeka Okafor – both players’ 8-cat impacts climb into the top 20 when you remove FT% (career: Biedrins 53%, Okafor 60%). A good chance you can get Okafor in the 5th if you pass on Biedrins to take Rondo (more…)
Here’s what might be considered something of a novel concept: straight rankings lists, whether overall or by position, offer diminishing returns to many h2h managers once a draft gets past the initial rounds. Here’s an example: If team_a nets Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Calderon in the first two rounds, then where should Emeka Okafor (and his anemic FT%) be slotted in terms of position ranks? If team_b comes away from the first two rounds with Dwight Howard and Gerald Wallace, then where does Okafor “rank”?
It should be immediately obvious that Okafor’s positive impact on those two teams would be substantially different. If team_a decides to punt blocks, then a large part of Okafor’s contributions are null and void. Maybe team_a is looking for a balanced approach – Okafor’s negative impact on FT% throws his line well out of balance and necessitates special treatment. Okafor delivers a third-round impact when you ignore his FT%, however, meaning that team_b needed to highlight him as a target as soon as the Howard pick was made.
You might argue that Okafor is an extreme example, given his career 60-percent shooting from the line. I won’t disagree, and Okafor is certainly an outlier in terms of negative impact in a single category. But what h2h managers need to recognize is that it’s not just those outliers that should impact team-building and player targeting strategies. H2h is all about maximizing your strengths while limiting your weakness to very specific areas, and the draft should dictate your strategy, not a rankings list.
General Strategies
Of course when I talk about “weaknesses” in h2h, it’s a reference to the “punting” of categories. It’s a completely viable strategy in h2h, and some would argue that it’s silly not to punt at least one category. Ignoring any one category alters the dynamic of player values tremendously and produces a new ranking algorithm – one that is unique to you… and whoever else happens to be employing the same punt strategy. That’s another thing to consider: there are nine statistical categories and twelve managers in most leagues, meaning there may be some crossing of the streams, strategically speaking. With that in mind, identify your targets and their potential draft slot early on. While you should absolutely stay cognizant of average draft position numbers and overall impact, don’t be afraid to reach a bit for the best player as defined by your specific team concept.
Notes: sign-ups for busersports.com invitational leagues are currently underway in the forums. Adding your performance record to the Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry is the first part of the registration process – if you have yet to do that, please visit this forum thread for instructions … The ADP Report can be found here … And a printable draft sheet can be found here.
• Spencer Hawesput on 10 pounds this offseason in an effort to increase his strength and subsequent post presence on both ends of the court, something the Kings desperately need from their young 7-footer.
“I think that’s a role I need to embrace and a void I need filled so it’s something I need to keep working on every day,” Hawes said.
But Kings coach Paul Westphal isn’t looking for Hawes to stop taking threes on the offensive end:
“Our offense calls for a lot of interchanges where you might be down low in one part of the offense and if you don’t get the ball you gravitate up to the top and someone else comes in low. There are plenty of opportunities for everybody, both perimeter and in the post if they can get open.”
It’s easy to overlook the fact that Hawes is entering his third NBA season at just 21 years of age. He’s dealt with inconsistency but has a unique skill-set and is looking at a clear path to playing time. Round 7 is a perfect spot to strike a balance between the risk and reward here.
• The Heat have signed Carlos Arroyo to a one-year deal in an attempt to bolster their depth at point guard. He’s likely to replace Chris Quinn as Mario Chalmers‘ primary backup and does present the team with a more suitable second option if Chalmers were to struggle in his sophomore campaign. That said, after making just two of 12 shots in his first two preseason games, Chalmers made six of 12 shots on Sunday against the Spurs and I still have him pegged for incremental improvements and as a solid return on investment in Round 8.
This is the last in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Power forward is, in a word, stacked. A lot of players with eligibility at the position will come off the board in the first four rounds, but there is serious production potential from one end of the draft to the other, as well as varied lines that can fit any team strategies or fill team needs.
The positional tiers, ranks, and comments for the power forward position are courtesy of RotoWire.com’s Justin Phan as a special guest post. You can find his regular work on their hoops page and as part of their blog, RotoSynthesis.(more…)
• The Kings and some fantasy managers that have already drafted were stung Friday by the news that Francisco Garcia had broken his right wrist, suffered when a physioball burst while he was using it for a weight-lifting exercise. Team president Geoff Petrie said that he’ll be out “for a significant amount of time” but nothing specific will emerge until after his Saturday surgery at the earliest. I wouldn’t fault those of you in standard leagues for making an add/drop if there is a desirable option on the wire, however.
On a related note, Andres Nocioni should immediately be rostered in the majority of leagues. He was only recently unseated by Garcia as the expected starter and will be more productive than a number of teams’ current worst players with steady minutes assured. In 23 games for the Kings last season, he averaged 13.7 points on 45 percent shooting, 2 threes, 6 boards, and 1.3 steals-plus-blocks in 31 minutes. We should see word out of Kings’ camp on how they specifically plan to fill in at small forward in the coming days.
• Kevin Garnett emerged from his first 13 minutes of preseason action exhausted but unscathed, complaining about not being in the flow of action but not about any pain in his knee. That’s the first sniff test, but he’ll need to make steady progress over the next few weeks to be close to 100 percent for the start of the regular season. The Celtics’ next three exhibition games are Sunday (1pm ET), Tuesday (7pm ET), and Wednesday (7:30pm ET).
• Allen Iverson will sit out at least the rest of the preseason because of a partial tear in his left hamstring, and his availability for the start of the regular season is very much in doubt. Iverson himself expects to be there on opening night, but doesn’t want to push things.
“I don’t want to try to come back too early and have this thing lingering throughout the whole season. The important thing is to let it get right before you go back there and try to play on it, because it only makes it worse and you have to deal with it for a long stretch.”
From a fantasy perspective, less AI means more of everyone else, as Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo’s minutes are very safe in games where Iverson does not participate. You should feel slightly better about Conley, Mayo, and Rudy Gay and downgrade Iverson in the wake of the injury, but don’t overreact as we’re still 17 days from games that count. That said, working against everyone here is that the acclimation process will now have to take place in the regular season.
This is the fourth in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
You can forget about position scarcity and the center position. Perhaps it used to be thin and you had to scramble for talent, but that’s no the case any longer, thanks in large part to a litany of players with multiple eligibilities, usually in the form of “FC”. A well-executed draft strategy relative to Yahoo! ADP can net you Troy Murphy or LaMarcus Aldridge in the third round, David Lee in the fifth, Al Horford in the sixth, Luis Scola or Kevin Love in the eighth, Joakim Noah in the 10th, Chris Andersen in the 11th, and Antonio McDyess, Brendan Haywood, Channing Frye, or Roy Hibbert in the last rounds. The sleepers don’t fall as far in competitive leagues, but there is solid production to be had at the position from top to bottom in any draft.
(positional table and comments after the jump)(more…)
This is the third in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Production from players with eligibility at small forward comes in all shapes and sizes at all points in the draft. You can go offense-oriented (Danny Granger, Charlie Villanueva, Marvin Williams), look for multi-category contributors (Andre Iguodala, John Salmons, Francisco Garcia), boost your big-man stats (Shawn Marion, Tyrus Thomas, Jason Thompson), or pick up a specialist (J.R. Smith, Ronnie Brewer).
The positional tiers, ranks, and comments for the small forward position are courtesy of RotoWire.com‘s Justin Phan as a special guest post. You can find his regular work on their hoops page and as part of their blog, RotoSynthesis.(more…)
This is the second in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Look for high-volume offense, high-efficiency offense, or strong multi-category lines from your shooting guards in the early and middle rounds. Later, you can shift your focus to glue guys and specialists. There is plenty of value to be had at the position if you identify your targets and execute your draft strategy well.
(positional table and comments after the jump)(more…)
I was of guest of Rich and Jon of 643 Sports earlier today for almost an hour of fantasy basketball talk. Topics included the Pistons’ backcourt, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Derrick Rose, and Kevin Garnett’s knee, among others. Click the play button below to listen – the show runs 1.5 hours, and I show up about 30 minutes in.
Notes: sign-ups for busersports.com invitational leagues are currently underway in the forums. Adding your performance record to the Yahoo! Fantasy Profile Registry is the first part of the registration process – if you have yet to do that, please visit this forum thread for instructions … The ADP Report can be found here … And a printable draft sheet can be found here.
• Brandan Wright is expected to be sidelined for four to six months because of his dislocated left (shooting) shoulder. The injury gives a boost to Anthony Randolph’s staying power – Don Nelson called Wright the better player than Randolph early in camp – as well as ensuring steady backup minutes for Corey Maggette at power forward and Ronny Turiaf at center.
• C.J. Miles ruptured a tendon in his left (shooting) hand on Monday, will need surgery, and will miss at least the start of the regular season. No official timetable has been set, but surplus minutes will be available for Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko while Miles is out.
“I hope (Batum) gets it. Honestly. To tell you the truth, I hope he gets it. I think he’d be a great starter on this team. For me, it’s just about making sure I’m ready when my name is called, whether that be starting or coming off the bench. Either way we have two phenomenal units. I’m excited to play with either one.”
This is the first in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Plan to draft at least three players with point-guard eligibility. Depth in general is a good idea, and you’ll find that “PG” can be a popular early designation under the “Positions Wanted” listing of league trade blocks. This is a top-heavy group – Yahoo! ADP has 11 players coming off the board by the middle of the third round, and it makes plenty of sense to grab at least one of those elite options. There are value picks to be had as the draft goes on, but keep in mind that a run at the position can happen at any time, so you don’t want to wait too long to grab your targets. In the table below, I’ve highlighted favorable ADP numbers in green and draft slots I’m not completely comfortable with in red. Further comments for each tier can be found at the bottom.
08-09: Yahoo! season rank during the 2008-09 season
ADP: Yahoo! ADP as of 10/3
Categorically Speaking
Here’s what might be considered something of a novel concept: straight rankings lists, whether overall or by position, offer diminishing returns to many h2h managers once a draft gets past the initial rounds. Here’s an example: If team_a nets 
• 
• The Kings and some fantasy managers that have already drafted were stung Friday by the news that Francisco Garcia had 
• Brandan Wright is expected to be sidelined for 
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