This is the second in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Look for high-volume offense, high-efficiency offense, or strong multi-category lines from your shooting guards in the early and middle rounds. Later, you can shift your focus to glue guys and specialists. There is plenty of value to be had at the position if you identify your targets and execute your draft strategy well.
(positional table and comments after the jump)
08-09: Yahoo! season rank during the 2008-09 season
ADP: Yahoo! ADP as of 10/3
Tier 1: Again, lots to love in the top half of the first round, with all four of these players going there.
Tier 2: Brandon Roy may look lonely there, but he really is the only player in that slot between the real elites and that group clustered in the late second and early-third.
Tier 3: This is a tightly-packed group and you can argue them in any number of orders. Very nice third-round picks all around, although not everyone is waiting that long to take them.
Tier 4: A lot of my targets fall into this tier … Looking at Jason Richardson‘s ADP, it’s clear that he’s no secret … You’ve heard it before, John Salmons and Leandro Barbosa are among my favorite mid-round targets this season … Interesting Eric Gordon split from last season involving games where he started and either did or didn’t share the court with Zach Randolph: when he did (37 G), he averaged 16.1 points, 1.8 threes, 4.2 free throws, and 2.7 assists; when he didn’t (28 G), he averaged 21.3 points, 2 threes, 6.1 free throws, and 3.5 assists.
Tier 5: I like Ron Artest where he’s going – it’s a great situation for him … Not a lot of wiggle room for Michael Redd at 54.2, but he could reward that pick … No complaints if I get Wilson Chandler and Francisco Garcia in the 9th and 10th rounds of any roto draft.
Tier 6: Clearly you can wait until the later rounds, but don’t be afraid to come in shy of Ronnie Brewer‘s ADP just to be sure you get him.
Tier 7: Hedo Turkoglu played 101 NBA games last season and then spent four months of his summer playing with the Turkish national team. He’s been dealing with quad and knee issues and is being drafted way too early.
Tier 8: Grant Hill has been largely ignored in drafts, despite a season rank of 40 last season. Keep him on your radar.
Tier 9: Lots of specialists and speculative picks … The Tracy McGrady and Mike Dunleavy picks are sure to elicit mixed responses, and I’m passing on both.
I’m bumping Deng (and certainly Noah) up on my list after tonight’s game. If Deng’s healthy, him, Rose, and Salmons should pick up all of the scoring with Gordon gone. The Bulls have lots of great role players, so Deng could be ‘the guy’. 20/7/2.5/1.5/0.5?
expecting essentially career highs across the board may be a little aggressive, but he’ll clearly need to be part of what they are doing when he plays
I like Roy sitting there by himself. On the other hand, can’t help but think Iggy is too high. His FT% and TO’s will really hurt a lot of unsuspecting owners.
As a late guy, how about Thabo Sefolosha? He’ll have a decent role (about the only guy who played above average defense) and should put up better per game value than a few of your last tier guys.
yeah if you are getting deep, thabo isn’t a bad choice for discount stl+blk
Buser, much respect for compiling this cheat sheet, but I have to question your judgement on raja bell. Last season we saw that raja can be efficient in the CHA system. He makes his threes and can get pretty hot. I don’t see him or Diaw slowing down this year, if anything with the addition of a less offensive C in Chandler (no CP3 dishing perfect passes) I expect Bell/Diaw to increase their load a little bit and I think that will definetly help bump fantasy value.
they signed flip murray and drafted gerald henderson, so i don’t see how he possibly increases his load when he played 37 mpg in his stint for them last season. where are you proposing that he should be slotted?
Any of you guys see what Dejuan Blair did last night? 19 Boards and 16 points in 22 minutes of play. That’s incredible. Now only if he was starting or came off the bench. If McDyess, Duncan, or Bonner go down, I expect to see a lot of production coming from Blair.
yeah i think what we’re all going to find out is that the spurs got themselves a really good basketball player who just happens to not have ACLs. dude just produces when he’s on the court and couldn’t be in a better team situation in “real life”. agreed that he’ll be of note in fantasy if any of those guys get nicked up
Nope, I don’t buy it. It’s all hype. Only pre-season.
“And you if you buy that, I’ll throw the Golden-Gate in free…”
Two things:
1. ACL’s are overrated.
2. Gregg Popovich said this kid was going to play this year. And I’m sure he didn’t mean summer league, pre-season, or d-league.
I’m really looking forward to this season!
Some really great last round fliers at this position. Unbelievable that Azubuike and Rush are not even being drafted! Buike could flirt with the magical 1 3PM/1 ST/1 BLK line. He’s definitely a top 100 player. I also expect Rush to see at least 30 min a night and finish as a top 100 player. Dahntay Jones is a solid addition to the Pacers as he will work hard in practice and play good D in the games but I really do not think he’s going to limit Rush this year.
Guys like Belinelli and Morrow also need to be owned based on the distinct possibly that they secure a solid spot in the rotation (anywhere from 20-30 min) and produce very good PTS and 3PM stats. Absolutely no reason to take players like Peja, McGrady, Dunleavy, Mason Jr., & Delonte over the 4 mentioned above.
Hey Matt,
Do you think you can ever post about the most negative and positive impact players for FT% and FG%? Maybe like a top 15 list for each? That would be cool…
Unless there’s already something like that out there. Then just a link would be fine. =)
well basketball monster is a great tool for getting a look at how players affect ratio stats. it lets you sort any of the columns by value
Nice list as always.
Everyone! See my views on the Nets roster for fantasy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIGnt5Ek1GQ
I’m gonna do every team so subscribe if u like!
AI out 3 weeks-ish with a partial tear in his left hammy
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/oct/07/grizzlies-allen-iverson-miss-3-weeks-hamstring-inj/
that has a trickle-down effect, obviously, and is something to keep tabs on
Reggie Evans got 4 steals again tonight, any chance him or Amir Johnson will have any value this year or are they killing each other?
Is Jennings about to blow up? Great game tonight off the bench. He’s still available in some of my leagues.
Didn’t think I could reach for Anthony Randolph any more, but I just might have to. Do I dare say 3rd round value when it’s all said and done?
johnson also fouled out in 25 minutes – par for the course for him. if bosh or bargnani miss games, evans will have some REB+STL value, but not otherwise
“He needs floor experience. He made some great plays and he made some plays that show he has a lot to learn,” Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles said. “That’s understandable for his second NBA game. The issue he has right now he is keeping people in front of him—Bynum was going right by him.” — jennings is piquing interest, but skiles isn’t going to hand it to him
40-plus minutes in an early preseason game is strange, and randolph and curry are both there
I agree that Skiles won’t hand it to Jennings. However, i’m still intrigued by his fantasy prospects this season. I’m just made a 2 for 1 trade, am looking for a pg to fill my empty roster slot, and it basically comes down to one of Jennings, Ridnour or Fernandez (steals is probably my weakest category). Fernandez is probably the choice most would make, but I just can’t see him getting much playing time with Miller on board, and Roy, Blake, Bayless, Webster, Batum and Outlaw all playing their roles at pg, sg and sf. Ridnour is one of the least sexy picks imaginable, but I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll be playing over 30 min a night for at least the first 20 games. Jennings clearly has the most upside, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggling to reach 20 min a night for the first half under Skiles. Any thoughts on this Matt?
*I’VE just made a 2 for 1 trade*
I just realized I have 2nd to worst fantasy basketball performance rating of all the people on Busersports.com. Incredible!!
Hahahaha.. this rules
hey man, technically it could be worse
Missed part of my draft and may be in jeopardy of not doing well. None of the picks by theirselves (besides BD @ 37) were completely bad, but I don’t like this team. I can’t even move Camby b/c the team is weak on blks (I thought Bosh was closer to 1.5 and AL closer to 2). Would like to trade for high FG% guard and moving two of mine. Blks/Stls not strong like i normally prefer. Any suggestions?
12-Chris Bosh (77)
13- Al Jefferson (50)
36- David West (76)
37- Baron Davis(65) too early- autopick first 4
60- Rudy Gay (79)
61- Marcus Camby (62)
84- Jason Terry (74)
85- Eric Gordon (78)
108- TJ Ford (74)
109- C Duhon (79)
132- R Sessions ()
133- M Dunleavy
156- A Parker ()
There’s nothing to be done this early on. No one’s gonna start trading their picks before the season even begins. A team is made as the season goes and your draft will definitely not make or break your season. It’s what you do with your waiver wire throughout the season. Wait it out. Your team looks okay at the moment. Your questions are way too broad for anyone to answer! Even if you are the matt buser
That is a bad attitude. I have made plenty of trades before the first game. While I agree the wire is one of the most key areas, trades can be very valuable. It makes no sense to wait until your in a hole, you should always identify weak areas and look to improve ASAP. It is true it is harder when no one uses the trading block or states who they are willing to move, that is why I made mention anyone on my team is available as long as it improves my team. Currently targeting Josh Smith and considering for the first time ever D Howard.
my man, a season is never defined before it even begins. You never know how players turn out season by season, you can only assume and predict. This is why I say you can’t trade this early because no one knows who’s gonna do what so you don’t really know what your holes are until all your players step foot on the court first.
Wow lol, you sound like j.p riccardi.
No, if he was J.P. Riccardi he would have said, “Hey everyone, Chris Bosh is on the trading block, but I expect 3 first rounders in return, and we don’t want Lebron James on our team, he doesn’t like basketball. I wonder if Wal-Mart is hiring.”
francisco garcia – broken wrist. remove him from draft consideration and move nocioni onto (or up) your cheat sheets
“He’ll be gone awhile because of a fluke injury on a physioball that burst during an exercise and will require surgery tomorrow morning.” yikes
http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/sports/kings/archives/2009/10/petrie-speaks-o.html
When you say “high volume offense”, “high efficiency” or “strong multi-category”, how exactly do you define that?
i can’t say i would “exactly” define it. some conspicuous combination of pts and threes; good %s and/or low-TOs; robust numbers when you add up 3pt+reb+ast+stl are generally what i’m speaking of
I’m in a very competitive 10 team keeper league (roto, standard but without TO as a category), 5 keepers per team. Chris Paul, Gasol and Camby are my top three keepers, but of the following four players which two do I keep: Ginobili, Salmons, Terry & Bibby. I’m leaning towards Ginobili & Salmons.
you’re keeping camby???? definitely keep salmons – but i would personally keep both ginobili and terry ahead of camby. throw bibby away.
yeah i’d go with paul, gasol, salmons, gino, terry as well
My question is this: last year I created my own excel spreadsheet to use for comparing trades, adding FAs, and getting an overall look at my team’s strengths/weaknesses. This year, I’m using the same spreadsheet to look ahead. It adds up averages in every category and gives you a total to look at.
I took all the winning numbers in each category in every league I played in and came up with the following “winning paces”:
FG: 48.4%
FT: 82.3%
3pm: 12.7
ppg: 177.3
rpg: 64.7
apg: 36.4
spg: 11.4
bpg: 7.3
TO: 17.7
You can plug in projected averages for your team, add them up, and see how they do in comparison to the winning totals.
The thing is, those averages are coming from a very small sample size.
I was wondering if there’s any kind of database out there that keeps track of stuff like this? I sure would be curious what the average winning numbers were across all the 1000’s of leagues out there. And, is this information that you would use?