This is the last in a series of position primers for roto leagues. Keep in mind that any rankings, discussion, etc will be for roto purposes only.
Power forward is, in a word, stacked. A lot of players with eligibility at the position will come off the board in the first four rounds, but there is serious production potential from one end of the draft to the other, as well as varied lines that can fit any team strategies or fill team needs.
The positional tiers, ranks, and comments for the power forward position are courtesy of RotoWire.com’s Justin Phan as a special guest post. You can find his regular work on their hoops page and as part of their blog, RotoSynthesis.
08-09: Yahoo! season rank during the 2008-09 season
ADP: Yahoo! ADP as of 10/9
Tier 1: Dirk Nowitzki is due for a small dip in production (points and rebounds specifically) with the addition of Shawn Marion, but that shouldn’t affect his status as a top-7 pick in standard 9-category, ROTO leagues. The rebounding hit will be somewhat offset when the Mavericks go with their small lineup with Dirk at center.
Tier 2: It’s impossible to predict how many games Amar’e Stoudemire will miss, but his top-5 per-game potential alone should vault him ahead of both Chris Bosh and Al Jefferson. Let’s not forget that Bosh and Jefferson also have injury concerns of their own.
Tier 3: I refuse to be pressured into lumping Pau Gasol in with the Tier 2 guys because of arbitrary reasons like his ADP or his ’08-’09 rank. There’s really no getting around the fact that Gasol’s overall production is going to take a substantial hit with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, looking healthier and better than ever. Let’s look at the splits from last season:
Without Bynum: 32 games, 39.4 minutes, 20.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2 turnovers, 58.8% FG on 14.1 attempts, 76.6% FT on 5.5 attempts. With Bynum: 49 games, 35.5 minutes, 17.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers, 55.1% FG on 12 attempts, 78.9% FT on 5.5 attempts.
Gasol was ranked 5th in per-game value when Bynum was out (injured), compared to 34th when Bynum was healthy. If preseason is any indication then Gasol’s value is in serious jeopardy. Bynum has looked fluid and has demanded the ball on repeated occasions while Artest has been dominating possession and vulturing assists (seven in the preseason opener). Add those two things together and you have me legitimately concerned about Gasol even cracking the top-25 this season. It makes me cringe every time I see him being drafted in the top-10, so do yourself a favor and do not be that guy whose rationale on taking Gasol is simplified to “well he’s not an injury risk like Amar’e or Al Jefferson”. You’re going to really regret that decision by season’s end when Gasol starts being overly passive and begins to take a back seat to Bynum.
Tier 4: I’ll pass on both Troy Murphy and Kevin Garnett this year. I’m not interested in grabbing sloppy seconds on Murphy’s career year, especially when it stemmed from career-highs in shooting percentages. His production will come down to earth significantly as his percentages normalize, and I highly doubt he grabs much more than 11 rebounds with the development of Roy Hibbert and addition of Tyler Hansbrough. KG is a major question mark at this point and you can be sure that the Celtics will be handling him with kid gloves to make sure he stays healthy for the playoff stretch. His per-game numbers are now reliant on his shooting percentages, as his blocks have plummeted and he is no longer a double-double threat.
Tier 5: I’m not so much worried about Elton Brand‘s health as I am about his role within the Princeton offense. He’s going to be used a facilitator and a decoy to draw double teams more than people think, and I’m just not sold on him putting up big numbers within a system predicated on balance. Otherwise a very good group of guys to target in the fourth round, especially if you miss out on a big man early on.
Tier 6: I’ll bet one of these guys ends up being a nice bargain, one of them a bust, and two of them break-even picks. The order in which they are ranked should tell you which guy I think ends up being what.
Tier 7: Buying this group from top to bottom but only as 6th round picks. Any earlier and you’ll be leaving value town and heading for break-even territory.
Tier 8: Great group of mid-round targets who are all in positions to succeed (Paul Millsap excluded).
Tier 9: A pretty mixed lot of guys — some old, some new, some ugly (I’m looking at you Joakim Noah) … I buy the upside of Spencer Hawes and Noah this year but really question the fantasy ceiling/potential of Kevin Love … Chris Andersen needs to stay as close to the nest as possible (3.1 BPG at home, 1.8 on the road).
Tier 10: Trio of brand names who are usually overdrafted and therefore are/will not be on any of my rosters.
Tier 11: With Francisco Garcia (forearm) out until January, Andres Nocioni sees a major boost in value and should be a solid utility player to round off your starting 10 with … The Timberwolves are really short on scorers at this point and will look to Ryan Gomes to fill that void. He could have a career-year of sorts this season.
Tier 12: Predominantly a group of veterans who can provide solid contributions in a few categories … The two exceptions, Julian Wright and Channing Frye, are worth last-round fliers in standard 12×13 leagues. Wright’s preseason play is a bit concerning but he will be given the chance to take over Peja’s spot as the starting SF. Frye should take the opportunity presented to him with the Robin Lopez injury and literally run with it.
Tier 13: Deep league sleeper alert! I’m hesitant to buy on Yi Jianlian but he’s certainly going to be put in an opportunity to succeed … Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Carl Landry, and Ersan Ilyasova are my favorites in this lot … Ilyasova is the PF on the Bucks roster that you want to target, not Hakim Warrick. Ilyasova’s averages from Eurobasket – 16.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 turnovers, 1.9 treys (44.8% on three-point attempts), 53.8% from the field, and 90% from the line. Just ultra-efficient and an all-around stat sheet filler.
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So, if Gasol’s going to take a hit given the additional talent, is there a possibility (read: What does the grapevine say) that he’ll be traded?
no chance. in real life, it will work out wonderfully. for fantasy purposes, there should be at least an awareness of the situation
Agred with Buser, no chance. The Lakers are concerned with winning championships and putting together the most talented squad possible, not with the numbers that Gasol is or isn’t putting up. The Lakers would be more than happy if less production from Gasol translated to more wins and a more developed Andrew Bynum.
I honestly think you have Josh Smith 2-3 tiers too high. He regressed last year, so I have no reason to believe he’ll even return to his career highs (17/9/3). He shot lower FT% than Dwight Howard last year. Anthony Randolph, Nene Hilario, Lamarcus Aldridge, Bargnani, Horford, Lee, etc will all out-produce J-Smoove in roto (IMO)
The great man (J-Phan) has placed him in the right tier. He’s young enough and athletic enough to get back into the 2.5 blocks per game range and the rest of his number weren’t bad apart from the ft%. If anything he became a lot more efficient. IMO you just want Smith ranked lower so you can thieve him in the fourth round of your drafts (where he should never, never reach.)
Smoove is turning 24 in December, not 34. I’m never been a big fan of the guy, but he’s got plenty of bounce back potential this year. The sudden drop in blocks can be attributed to lingering ankle issues that bothered him throughout the year, and his 58.8% clip from the line was a mere outlier (he shot between 68-72% from the line in the four seasons prior to ’08-’09).
Per-game ranks over the past three seasons:
’06-’07 – 33
’07-’08 – 34
’08-’09 – 96
Spot the not.
Maybe it’s the health issues that scare me away, then. Hasn’t he been having ankle issues in camp/pre-season?
LaMarcus Aldridge is also 24, and has a legit shot at 20/10 next season. Realistically, he’s an 18/9 guy, who turns it over very little and shoots good FT. Smith gets an extra block and .5 steal, but I’d take Aldridge for his pts/reb/TO/FT
He tweaked his left ankle and sat out last Sunday’s scrimmage but started Wednesday’s preseason game. Looks to be fine at the moment.
I can see your argument to take the more steady and dependable LMA, but Smoove’s three-block potential alone secures him in that fourth tier.
I am assuming you are Justin Phan in the flesh, so I would like to start off by sending my apologies if I offended you on my previous post. The take on Noah looks kind of sarcastic now as I take a second glance, but I did not intend that way (I actually clicked his player profile after reading this primer and was pretty surprised). Did Noah post an epiphany somewhere I am unaware of?
On LA: he is a border-line mediocre rebounder, and w/ Oden looking to improve, I think it is safe to say he hovers around 7REB. I like his ST/BLK combo and friendly percentages. But watch out for H2H playoffs Wk 21-23, as Por has one of the most unfavorable ones.
No worries man. I think Nosh might have gotten a spark from that early-March game against the defensively-challenged GSW frontcourt: 14 PTS, 17 REB, 4 BLK, 8-of-8 FT.
Noah, rather.
You have Camby as a bust? Really? Show me one player you would take before him that you have listed below him. I am willing to bet he is the safest pick at that postion than anyone on the list. No one below him will out perform him, but he has the ability to outperform a lot of people above him on your list (especially guys like brand and bargoni)/
Bust at his current ADP of 50, yes. I just can’t envision him being a +EV pick at that spot. Like I said, he’s been solid when he’s healthy but he’s been a major injury risk his entire career (has avg’d 58 GP per season over his 13-year career).
I also think his overall rank was a lot higher than it should have been last year as an abnormal spike in his FG% masked significant drops in rebounds, blocks, and assists.
He’ll now have to deal with the addition of Blake Griffin, who should steal some rebounds and minutes away. Add on the the high probability that he’ll get traded around the deadline and it’s hard to exude much confidence in him as even your 2nd center.
I agree with RB as well. Even over at BFFA, we have Camby going at 55 (I personally had him at 54), but even with that, I wouldn’t take Camby considering others who could be on the board at that point – Nene, Bargnani, Okur, Horford, take your pick.
Take a chance on Camby in a later round, if you’re needing a PF with C eligibility.
Hum, Barg, Okur, Nene even Horford are taken before pick 55. Not sure you have many center options at picks 55-60 besides Camby.
Going by the ADP numbers listed in the primer, all those guys are going after Camby (who’s at 50.6).
If I was using the Busersports ADP, or our BFFA ADP for that matter, then yes, most of these guys (if not all) are going before Camby – which kinda makes my point, doesn’t it?
I’m not taking Camby at 50 or 55, regardless of who’s on or off the board.
Having said that, I’m just commenting on the info given in the primer.
If you look at the original comment, it was based on Buser’s primer, not ADP. Futhermore I’ll take Camby over Horford/Barg/Brand all day long. Its not like the people grouped w/ him are studs or have all of this great upside. We know Camby has top 10 potential, he has already done it more than once over the course of a full year. Yes how he fits in LAC, his age, and injury history are concerns, but the guy is worth the risk at the point listed in the primer (i believe after all the people mentioned in the post). I got him at 61 and am very happy w/ it. His fg/ft% is not a huge factor in his rating due to volume. Yes 2 blks/g and less than 10 reb are a DOWN year for him.
“Yes how he fits in LAC, his age, and injury history are concerns, but the guy is worth the risk at the point listed in the primer (i believe after all the people mentioned in the post).”
Sorry if I’m being misunderstood, but I think we’re debating on the same side of the point here.
I do agree with Camby’s position in the primer – what I don’t agree with is his current ADP number at 50.6 (which is the Yahoo! ADP, btw). But the primer adjusts for that, which is fine.
And yes, I can see him going after those others mentioned in Tiers 5 and 6.
I did see that the original comment was directed at the primer’s listing – Camby is at the bottom of Tier 6, and the question was would you honestly take anyone in Tier 7 before him (in my opinion, there are some pretty interesting choices there – but on paper, Camby is still worth the Tier 6 spot). But RB’s comment started with the line “Bust at his current ADP of 50, yes.”, and that’s the comment I was addressing and agreeing with.
I would still avoid Camby, though – but that’s just a personal preference. If another manager takes him and wins with him, then more power to him or her.
Echo pretty much everything said by So-Tex here.
Sleeper and bust is a term that should be applied relative to a player’s ADP. Camby doesn’t warrant that 50.6 ADP this year.
If it came down to having to choose between Camby and the Tier 7 guys I’d take Camby. That’s why he’s listed above those guys in a different tier.
Would I take him over Horford, Brand, and Bargs though? Absolutely not.
Um, Ariza is not even eligible at PF. He forgot to mention Sheed’s excellent ST numbers for a big. I did not know my Noah made huge leaps and bounds in FT efficiency. Also, Mags is a solid rebounder for his size. Ilyasova, really? I am no rocket scientist, but EuroBasket is not the NBA by any stretch, is it? Interesting take on Pau, so what should we do? I am so risk averse after having drafted Yao, it is not even funny. Do we take the guy who is healthier but less numbers, or do we take an injury-prone who could tear it up? Overall, his analysis is border-line mediocre. And rotowire is weak, you have to pay
Noah shot 80.7% from the line post-ASB and then 76% during the playoffs. I’d say that’s a sign that he’s heading in the right direction, no?
You have a gripe with a guy I listed as the 65th PF? Considering the kid is only 22-years old and still pretty raw, I’d say that his domination of EuroBasket this summer is a very good indication that he’s made some major strides in improving his all-around game. We’re talking pick 180+ here, so at that point, why NOT take a gamble on a young talent with major upside who could easily land a starting spot this season?
You don’t win competitive leagues by drafting safe and avoiding risks all together. If you’re drafting in the 8-12 slots in a ROTO league, you’re going to have to make up the value disparity somehow. That is, you’re naturally going to be at a disadvantage from the guys drafting 1-4 because guys like CP3, LBJ, Wade, and KD are so far ahead of the 8-12 pack in terms of value. If you’re set on avoiding risk all together early on then target Roy and Deron. Gasol just cannot be included in the conversation based on his projected drop in production.
Since I have yet to receive my activation email for the forums, I’ll post this here.
I’m on a keeper league and someone has offered me any one of Iguodala, Joe Johnson, and Gerald Wallace for Anthony Randolph.
The rest of my keepers are:
Nash
Kidd
Garnett
Troy Murphy
I’m thinking Iguodala would fit my team the best as I’d be getting steals that Nash won’t provide a lot of.
Any opinions? Should I just keep Randolph instead?
Wallace will get you as many steals as Iguodala and is better value overall. I’d go with him.
Any chance he takes a KG + Randolph for GWall + Iggy deal?
*see post in the next message block*
Forgot to reply here.
check your spam folder
I’m wary of the over/under 70 games played for Crash. Whereas Iguodala has been Mr Durability for quite some time now.
I’ll try pitching that to him. I doubt anyone would take KG though.
This is a tough one, but I would stay put for now. You can easily rank these players Iguodala, Johnson, Wallace, Randolph as per their (redraft) ADPs, but I’d be really hesitant to trade Randolph in a keeper league right now for almost anyone. You can argue that Randolph is a sell high right now, but you can also argue that no other player in the league has as much upside. If the offers is left on the table, wait a few weeks into the season and see where they’re all at. If you still want a pick out of those three players, I’d say Wallace too. You don’t need Iggy’s assists, or Johnson threes.
His keeper core isn’t getting younger so if there’s any time to win it’s now. I’m big on AR and I’m a Warriors fan as well, but I can’t say with much confidence that AR’s fantasy ceiling is any higher than what GWall is giving you now.
This is a problem for mosst managers. You can Never have a player you are not willing to trade/draft/etc. If the deal is right, you move Randolph. His value could crash down nearly as easy as it could go up. You have to consider what someone is willing to offer. Waiting gives you no advantage b/c the other managers (assuming your in any type of a competitive league) know as much as you do at that point. I have seen a lot of people miss out on great deals b/c they waited too long (offer pulled, manager made move w/ another player, etc.)
That’s a good point, and that’s why I said ‘almost’ anyone. The 3 players he listed could certainly be considered good value for Randolph at this point, but my point is that we don’t really know Randolph’s long term ceiling yet, he’s only really been a factor for half a season and a summer league. For all we know he could be a top 10 fantasy player 3 years from now. In a redraft league I would probably make the deal, but in a keeper, even if his keepers are old, I’d still wait a few weeks, his value shouldn’t fluctuate that much in that time, but we should have a better idea of what to expect this year and beyond.
I do hope the offer remains on the table come December or late November.
I am inclined to wait for now to get a better grasp of Randolph’s production. Though with my keepers, the urgency to try to win now is a concern.
Obviously, the other manager is banking on future returns on this deal rather than substantial contributions from Randolph this season. So he might not pull the plug on the deal even if Randolph struggles a bit to start the year.
I’m happy to take Gasol in the middle of the second round in roto leagues, which is where I’ve seen him fall to in drafts. Even if his production drops off he has positive impact across the board which is tough to get from the center position.
i don’t think many people would complain about taking him in the middle of the second, but he’s not falling in many drafts
Need some advice. I am in a 5 person keeper league and everyone has their keepers already posted. The draft is Sunday and I know you haven’t done a H2H pre-draft rankings yet. These are my keepers.
Tony Parker
Danny Granger
Caron Butler
LaMarcus Aldridge
Tim Duncan
I was thinking of trading Caron Butler for either David Lee or Gerald Wallace? Do you think this is a good idea? Both players Lee and Wallace will be in the draft this year due to the player not keeping either of them, but I want first dibs. Let me know what you guys think.
Yeah man deal Butler for GWall by all means.
trade caron for gerald wallace. no brainer..
im in a h2h league. i have punted assists with other trades i have made, but i ended up with kidd in a deal that i couldnt say no to. (nelson conley frye for kidd, A.randolph) now, id like to deal kidd alongside bargnani (two hardcore raptors fans in my league who want him). my team is built around bigs and scorers. i am targeting al jefferson from one team and brook lopez from another. is jefferson and barbosa for kidd and bargnani a fair deal? is lopez, charlie V, TJ ford and JR smith fair value for kidd bargnani and courtney lee? any advice would be much appreciated, thanks.
Both are good deals for you — it’s just up to whether the other managers are OK with giving up that much.
Hi Matt!
This is off-topic since I didn’t know where to go to post this. Just completed my H2H money league draft. 12 teams, 5 starters (G,G,F,F,C), 9 standard cats.
Grateful if I can get some inputs regarding my lineup:
R1 Lebron James
R2 Devin Harris
R3 Elton Brand
R4 Andrea Bargnani
R5 Jason Richardson
R6 Greg Oden
R7 Hedo Turkoglu
R8 Joakim Noah
R9 TJ Ford
R10 Allen Iverson
R11 Louis Williams
R12 Antonio McDyess
R13 Kenyon Martin
Your comments shall be highly valued as usual.
Thanks!
skyrocket
any off topic stuff goes in the forums
I think you reached a bit on Richardson and Oden, they have been going later in h2h drafts. Noah is good value, he should be solid.
JRich was fantastic value in the 5th round. I see him outperforming both your 3rd and 4th round picks (Brand and Bargs) this year. Oden was a bit of a reach though for sure.
Rumour has Bosh going to GS for Biedrins and Jackson, but I don’t see why GS would want to rent him for one year, unless they think he’d make them a contender. I think BC would jump at that, but can Biedrins play PF, and would Jackson want to play here? Biedrins and Bargnani would be an interesting pairing, but not very tough. Bosh is a better fit, but since he’s opting out, might as well get this package in return if you can I say.
Yeah there’s really no substance or legs behind this rumor. Next!
I understand every draft will be a little different depending on who you play with but i’m trying to develop a general strategy, (Roto)
If you had to rate the positions (PG, SG, …etc) as far as
1) Top End Elite Strength
2) Middle of the Road Strength
3) Back-End Strength (Deepest)
From Reading the primers me impression is
PG is the weakest in all areas
SF seems top/middle heavy (as in grab one or two farily early)
Center seems Top heavy but w/ decent depth
SG/PF look strong in all 3 areas
Thoughts?
“PG is the weakest in all areas”
great options at the top but it dries up pretty quickly. sparse in the mid-rounds, but you can get some value late. of course that is where every draft being different comes in
“SF seems top/middle heavy (as in grab one or two farily early)”
they should go pretty quickly through the first 3 rounds as well. the middle and late targets are pretty universally liked, so don’t get stuck waiting for them
“Center seems Top heavy but w/ decent depth”
lots of good value to be had in rd 5-7
“SG/PF look strong in all 3 areas”
PF is stacked, SG a bit like SF
hey since we seem to be all over the board on comments I was hoping you could review my draft strategy based on the mocks I have been participating in so far. It always seems like I am ending up with the same players in the same areas and want to make sure there are no red flags based on the individual players or team building.
Any feedback is really apreciated.
My league will be 15 team 9 cat roto. it is competitive
first round BPA
2nd round picks 16-30 point guard (in order williams,nash,billups, kidd, harris)or BPA (crash, carter) if later in round.
3rd round picks 30-45 BPA (in order kmart, lopez, troy murphy) (biedrins then manu if later in round
4th round (picks 45-60) in order manu, nene, jameer nelson, mo williams.
5th round (picks 60-75) salmons then terry barbosa.
6th round (75-90) bpa who falls if not then t thomas, tj ford, okafor if My ft% can handle it(usually not)
7th round (90-105) tj ford, chalmers, duhon, noah
8th round (105-120) see above, chris anderson, nate robinson
9th round (120-135) whatever center is left of (in order) anderson, haywood, marc gasol, perkins, mcdysse.
and after that by need which is usually 3s
I need to know what changes I should make before draft day!!!!
i left out calderone in the 2nd round picks. i would probably put him after billups
what about Jermaine Oneal? Yes, he is old, declining, and injury-prone, but you can’t tell me no one here grabs him before some of the tier 12 or 13 players. He is at least chris anderson due to his blks, right?
Jermaine is only C-eligible this year, which is why he was not included in this PF primer. If he was he’d probably be in tier 10.
oh, thanks. i always remember him as pf/c
My question is this: last year I created my own excel spreadsheet to use for comparing trades, adding FAs, and getting an overall look at my team’s strengths/weaknesses. This year, I’m using the same spreadsheet to look ahead. It adds up averages in every category and gives you a total to look at.
I took all the winning numbers in each category in every league I played in and came up with the following “winning paces”:
FG: 48.4%
FT: 82.3%
3pm: 12.7
ppg: 177.3
rpg: 64.7
apg: 36.4
spg: 11.4
bpg: 7.3
TO: 17.7
You can plug in projected averages for your team, add them up, and see how they do in comparison to the winning totals.
The thing is, those averages are coming from a very small sample size.
I was wondering if there’s any kind of database out there that keeps track of stuff like this? I sure would be curious what the average winning numbers were across all the 1000’s of leagues out there. And, is this information that you would use?